Monday, February 2, 2009

Heat Wave

Today was sunny and mild...and the next two days promise the same if not better...with max temps reaching the lower to mid-50s, sun, and no precipitation. If only we had better snow and this would be a fine respite. With the warm frontal passage, we are now in much warmer air...take a look at the profiler temperatures above us-one every twenty four hours (at 8 PM)...quite a warming.
Several of you have talked about upcoming snow. The forecast models do show snow returning to the mountains this weekend and the 180 hr forecasts for next week indicate some lowland snow... But you just can't depend on forecasts that far out. Want an example? Below you will see the surface analysis over the ocean and a 180hr forecast at the same time. See any differences? The forecast has an intense 972 mb low center while the analysis (reality) has an amorphous low of around 994 mb. Big difference. And these two maps are more similar than most 180hr forecast verifications!

14 comments:

andycottle said...

Well I`ll be the first to post here.

Today did turning out to be nice day with my getting up to 54 with low of 39 here in Woodinvile. Had some overcast skies this morning, but then was mostly sunny for remainder of the day.

Latest 18z/00z shows that after this weekend, that weather pattern may turn cool and unsettled with cool troughs coming through our region from the NW. And yes, the models do show few marginal chances of lowland snow, but it`s out in the long term, so things can certainly change.

Mark said...

It's my impression that this has been a rather dry winter. My co-workers & i were talking over Lunch and everyone felt like there was less rain than normal so far this winter. Is that so?

Cliff Mass Weather Blog said...

Over the whole winter we are low by about 2 inches. We have had short very wet periods and long dry periods...so it seems like we are drier than we were....

Jessica said...

I've had the same impression - it seemed like in the early '90's, I would leave for work in the winter to a dark sky and constant misty/spitty drizzle. Then scurry to lunch thru a hazy gray break in the rain and then walk home from the bus stop to an increasing rainy darkness at the end of day.

yes, this has felt dryer!

Cliff Mass Weather Blog said...

Well, if you consider the number of days with rain, not total amount, then you are absolutely right....we have had less days with rain...so it seems much drier.

natchrl8r said...

I'd made the same observation yesterday: Many dry days with a few big rain events. Thanks for the confirmation. I'm seeing more frost than ever but then again I moved from 600' in the foothills to 100' in Happy Valley. Love those microclimes!

Anonymous said...

This is making me look forward to summer. If we're not going to get anymore snow, winter can get lost as far as I'm concerned. :)

Josh-B said...

Professor Mass,
I was wondering if the Climate Prediction Center initiates a debriefing after long and short range forecast have come to pass?

And is the discussion available?

Josh-B said...

Thank You

Anonymous said...

Cliff, you're an entertaining writer and you make this accessible to the layperson. Thanks as always.

noel.wade said...

Thanks for the predictions, Cliff! I'm looking forward to the Townhall, to learn some of your forecasting secrets... Our Soaring Club is getting into forecasting and using the UW MM5/WRF-GFS webpages more and more!

Anonymous said...

Wow, those two images are very similar!! Great forecast!!

Where's Winter? said...

It wasn't very nice today. Pretty awful in fact. For early February, 50s?? That much sun??? I even saw an ugly '6' as the first digit on my thermometer for a brief minute. :( We're going the wrong way. Can't wait until October!!

Anonymous said...

Sounds like the next two days promise the same if not WORSE!!