Sunday, November 15, 2009

Major Windstorm Possible on Tuesday


Well, the next few days is going to bring a range of extreme weather here...and now the U.S. models are locking on a major windstorm on Tuesday. But there are hold outs...the UKMET office model...which just as skillful on average.. and the European Center Model...which is better that the top US model (a terrible embarrassment for us that should not be!)

Anyway, below is the 48-h sea level pressure and wind speed forecasts--a major event if this becomes true. I suspect we will know tonight whether the US or American models are right. Right now we will have to live with some uncertainty.


And don't forget the rain. We will see huge amounts in the Olympics and northern Cascades, some Olympic slopes getting more than 10 inches. Olympic rivers will flood and there is a strong possibility of flood downstream of the N. Cascades (e.g., Nooksack). And even the lowlands could get deluged with several inches.

28 comments:

RobbyRob said...

It will be a very interesting couple of days. With what the current US models are showing, how strong of a storm would this be? I was looking at the Hanukkah eve storm "stats" and it was a 970mb low, if this storm takes a similar path what kind of difference would there be between 970 and 975mb (as current models indicate)?

Josh said...

I wish the news forecasters would stop leaving details out. They seem to always downplay everything to make sure they don't hurt their reputation. But then they also get blamed for not giving details.

Scott K said...

I was noticing this too on some of the UW forecast models showing a low dropping down out of canada again.

Chances are it'll be a miss, based on murphey's law. :) But yet again I have high hopes for a big wind storm. It IS November after all.

zmb said...

Let it be storm season...

sermonti.anthony@leg.wa.gov said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sermonti said...

Interesting setup. Also sorta reminiscent of the Dec. 2007 storm in terms of the one-two punch for coastal winds. Looks like a system will come in late tonight to kick things off, and then the 970ish mb low will kick off Tuesday.

smokejumper said...

I dunno whats up with the forecast. If that main narrow rain band sets up a little further south!?!?! I'm no hydrological expert, but 3-5 inches of rain on top of 3-5 inches of snow water equivalent, rivers will be higher than whats forecasted.

showhank said...

OT

Cliff a good article on US Math Education.

http://www.city-journal.org/2009/eon1113ss.html

Charlie Phillips said...

hmm the 18 UTC GFS and NAM are weaker though

charliesweatherforecasts.blogspot.com

Must read blogs said...

But even at 988mb should give up some decent winds.

zmb said...

High Wind Watchs and Wind Advisories starting to popup and become effective this evening. Certainly ready for some weather action.

Scott K said...

Yep, I'm getting excited. We have a high wind watch and advisory for our area now. This might turn out to be a good wind storm...and 2 days of it at that!

natchrl8r said...

Its been 20mph winds most of today in Bellingham, gusting up to 36-41. Starting to sound more active out there now. Expecting up to 60mph tonight, perhaps 70mph on Tuesday. We're in for a real stormy week! I'm dubbing my evening rum refreshment a "Pineapple Express"! (Pineapple, Orange, Banana over ice with a shot of rum.)

Lisa said...

I, for one, am hoping for a less than Dec. 2007 storm. 14 days without power, many, many trees down to clean up...no thanks. Blew the cups clean off the anemometer. Once a large madrona crashes through your roof you too will be huddled in your basement wishing it would just stop.

Joseph Ratliff said...

Lisa,

I lived in Ocean Shores during the December 07 storms myself...so I can empathize.

It was a terrible evening.

I'm hoping this one would "back off the throttle" a little.

DeAnne said...

The weather is so much more interesting this time of year.

I do hope its not as damaging as the Dec 2007 storm was.

We shall see what follows.

kosmo said...

Windstorm Tuesday? How about windstorm at 3am monday morn. So violent in so king county I can't sleep! Lots of big trees making noise!

LJansen said...

Good wave action on Lake Washington.
It seems like someone lowered the lake a few feet in the last week.

Josh said...

Some Fireworks over Bellingham this morning. Power still on in the Columbia area. Sporadic lines down throughout the county. Just a trace of rain in the last 24. Big rain shadow. 56 mph gust (structure influence) early this morning. Question? I wonder if the Pacific waters rise a little as the parent low moves over a particular area? Opps there goes another transformer to the west...

Joseph Ratliff said...

Wind hasn't been a major factor at all overnight. Peak gust about 31mph in Lacey, WA.

JewelyaZ said...

Peak gust overnight here in East Bellevue was 40.2 mph. I really don't relish a reprise of Dec 2006; I'm sure Tuesday night will be enough excitement for me!

Jim said...

If I hadn't watched the news I wouldn't have known there is wind anywhere. At my home near Monroe there was no wind, and here at my office on the Everett waterfront there is no wind. Rain, sure, but no wind that I can see!

epjmcginley said...

Severe Wind

West of Olympia at Oyster Bay.

BobH said...

"[the news forecasters] seem to always downplay everything to make sure they don't hurt their reputation."

Really? You think the problem with local TV newscasts is that they *downplay* weather events?

Joseph Ratliff said...

Just watched King 5 news this morning, and one of the weather guys that I respect (Rich Marriott) says we're not in for as much wind on round 2...funny.

Joseph Ratliff said...

Looks like the latest info is 982mb across Vancouver Island for tonight...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
321 AM PST MON NOV 16 2009

...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS MORNING...

...MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. LOCAL DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND MORE WIDESPREAD COULD OCCUR TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT A DEEP 982 MILLIBAR
STORM WILL REACH VANCOUVER ISLAND AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

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Sermonti said...

Dr. Mass, with all due respect -- and it is quite deserved -- the coastal sections get generally screwed or forgotten with many weather events. The coastal warning-speed winds started today at 5:30 p.m. with warning wind speeds as far inland as Wishkah.

Please don't take this comment in terms of questioning your expertise, but the coast has been hammered this evening. I get the sense the Seattle WFO tries to play everything down.

I will never forget when the Portland WFO issued the Hurricane Wind Warning in Dec. of 2007 for Oregon coastal sections and the Seattle WFO sat on their asses.

Not that this event gets even near Dec. 2007, but I get the sense Seattle WFO is too damn gun shy on most everything.

I was most honored to have the chance to ask you in person a question about warnings prior/during the 2007 coastal gale and you came across quite defensive of the NWS. As an educated observer, I thought it was a COMPLETE failure of Seattle WFO in terms of what would hit coastal sections. Even after the event began.

I guess I'm venting.