November 30, 2009

A very different pattern: Dry, sun, and fog

We are now about to experience very different weather from the wet, blustery conditions of most of November. The last precipitation for quite a while just passed through tonight..the remnants of a weakening frontal system. High amplitude ridging, associated with building high pressure over the eastern Pacific, will leave us high and dry for the remainder of the work week. The only guessed it...FOG, particularly tomorrow and Wednesday morning in the lowlands. But we should see plenty of sun later this week, and the mountains will be in sun nearly every day.

Our long range computer models..which have notorious problems with cold wave situations....are not agreeing over the weekend and beyond. Right now the US model..the GFS..shows a major arctic front passage with strong NE winds into Bellingham early Saturday and cold air streaming into our region. (see graphic) But no snow. The European Center Model..normally superior...has a different, warmer, solution. Anyway, I never get excited by snow and cold more than 5 days lets wait until the models are all on the same page. But it is clear we will be dry for days with little or no wind. Normal temperatures. Exceptional weather for raking leaves.

Jim Forman of KING 5 should start preheating his wool hat and gloves, and Seattle DOT...well, you know.

Remember last year. We transitioned to cold and snow about a week later.

Special Lecture: I will be giving a noon-time weather lecture ("Is Rainfall Getting More Extreme?") and a book signing at Elliot Bay Books, December 2 at 12 PM. Downtown in Pioneer Square

KIRO TV WEATHER SPECIAL: Wednesday, Dec 2 at 7 PM. For more info check out:


  1. Cool. I'm glad for a change in the weather. It will be interesting to see what comes next weekend... I'll keep watching the models and your blog to see which way it's going to go. :-)

  2. The latest Euro and Canadian models are looking pretty cold now, too. But yeah, it's still too early to know what is going to happen.

  3. Normal temps? Probcast is calling for 100% chance of freeze tomorrow night, with a possible temp range of 20 - 29 and a likely temp of 24! I'm not quite ready for that... gotta go address the garden tomorrow.

  4. Air Quality will be a minor concern Weds-Friday AM. After that cold air will break inversion allow for pretty good ventilation and keep pollution levels in check. Probably won't need a burn ban.

  5. So how cold are we talking, if the front does show up?

  6. We still have frozen grass this morning here in Lake Stevens. Elevation about 300'.

    I went ahead and shut off and bled my outside faucets this morning in preparation for colder weather the rest of this winter.

    I'm headed to Hawaii this Friday though. :)

  7. On This Day, December 01, In 1987, A Powerful Storm Hit The Pacific Northwest. Winds Gusted To 80 Mph At Cape Disappointment, Washington And Reached 94 Mph At Cape Blanco, Oregon. Thunderstorms In Western Washington Produced Wind Gusts To 60 Mph And Dime Size Hail. Meanwhile, Stevens Pass, Washington Received Seven Inches Of Snow During The Morning Hours.

  8. Probcast says 23° for tonight (Tues.) while UW's Western Washington Zone Forecasts calls for 35°. Why the huge discrepancy?


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