The weather predictions for Friday afternoon was for relatively warm conditions (70F for Seattle, 72 Tacoma) with only a slight chance of rain (roughly 10%).
Or the UW WRF for the same period:
It became evident in the morning hours that the models were missing a major ingredient as precpitation was evident offshore and then moved in over us--thanks to the new Langley Hill radar (images at 10:30 AM and 12:03PM):
Here is a nice video showing the development of the mid-level convection:
So if one watched the radar carefully, you could have seen the forecast going wrongand alter it....we call this nowcasting.
So what went wrong? There appear that there was a weak offshore disturbance that was poorly described in the initial state of our numerical models. Here is the 9:30 AM infrared satellite photo that suggests such a feature:
During the next few months the NWS and the UW will be using the information from the Langley Hill radar to initialize our models, perhaps this will help improve the short-term forecasts of such events, but it will do little to help predictions more that 6 hours out. To improve these will require better use of satellite data and more satellite data.
Note: The Camano Island radar is down now for upgrading to dual-polarizaton...should be up by the end of the week....cliff
We had a solid spotter report of my lost cockapoo in Mountlake Terrace near Terrace Creek Park...if any of you live or work up there can you keep an eye out? For a picture of her, check the link on the right. Thank you so much.
Here is the area she was seen last in:
This dog was lost on 9/10 and has moved 10 miles in 19 days.