Friday, October 12, 2018

Ridgezilla Returns

Yes....it is a back.  A huge persistent ridge of high pressure that won't go away.    You know its name:
Ridgezilla.

And because of this monstrous high pressure, it won't rain at least for a week.  Our temperatures will be above normal.  Afternoons will have sun.  Absolutely perfect fall weather.

Let's me show you this unnatural creature through a series of upper-level (500 hPa pressure level, about 18,000 ft) maps.

The forecast map for 2 PM Saturday shows a huge ridge of high heights (or pressures) over the northeast Pacific.

 5 PM Monday?  Still there!
 8 AM Wednesday has the ridge in place, but displaced a bit to the east.   Still protecting us from the rain monster.


 And it moves back and strengths at 5 PM Friday.  Wow.


But what about the weather at the surface?   The best thing to look at are ensembles of many forecasts that can help us understand probabilities and uncertainties.  Looking at the 21 forecast National Weather Service GEFS precipitation ensemble at Sea-Tac, it is clear that they are insistent we will get nothing.


The temperature ensembles show a warming trend to near 70F on Wednesday and above-normal temperatures the rest of the period.
Folks...this one is pretty much in the bag... so get outside and enjoy it.  The only issue might be some morning clouds Saturday morning and later in the week.  But those will burn off by lunchtime.
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Announcement:  Initiative 1631 Debate

There will be a debate at UW at 5 PM Tuesday afternoon about the carbon-fee initiative.  Located in room 301 Gowan Hall.   Everyone is invited.  More information below.


And if you want to prep yourself by reading the 38 pages of the initiative, a pdf of it is here.
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Second Announcement:  Wonderful New Book on the 1962 Columbus Day Storm:  The Deadly Wind by John Dodge.  The biggest storm in NW history, well described by a veteran reporter.  More information here



4 comments:

Cary Harmon said...

Your positive reaction to this trend is kind of strange. Here in Bend, we are dry, we have been dry all year, and we don't need 10 more days of dry weather. And I am guessing that many people in the mountains would prefer to see some rain/snow in the next couple weeks, as I think they would normally have. A stretch of warm and dry weather is a mixed bag and more than just a chance to go and enjoy some time at the park.

Sally Chang said...

Yes on 1621 because baby steps are better than no steps. Lots of words, lots of spin, lots of alternate truthiness.

Chris Mc said...

No on 1621 because the people already waste enough money lining powerful group leaders pockets.

Here's a babystep. Add a $.15 per gallon tax to fuel then take that money and give it directly to the teachers. Then after those kids that get a proper education get into a position to make changes, they'll be ready.

Baby-boomers are not able to make changes that effect their retirements.

Millennials were brought up wrong (wasteful), but will likely start the change.. hopefully.

Snowflakes are too delicate to make big changes. (Haha maybe not all of them..)

This current generation gets no money for their schools, so they get stuck with common core which is basically an education to pass tests.

Sad thing to watch, even worse to be a part of.

Or just sit back and watch as our country plunges further and further behind the rest of the world..

Even better make it a $.30 federal tax and fund all the kids and NASA!

Ron Sorrell said...

Cary, I sympathize with your drought. But try to take it in stride. What is Cliff to do? Shun the weather? Will that do any good? Might as well enjoy it. The rain will surely come by Halloween as it always does.