The Atmosphere is Now in Neutral

Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino/La Nina,  since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.

NOAA's latest forecast is out....and I will describe it below.

El Nino and La Nina are on the opposite poles of the same phenomenon:  the shift of the waters of the central tropical Pacific from warmer than normal (El Nino), to near normal (Neutral of La Nada), to below normal (La Nina).

A plot of the sea surface temperatures in this critical area (the Niño3.4 area) is shown below (actually the differences from normal).  After experiencing the cool waters this winter (La Nina), we are now in neutral territory.

The correlation of the tropical water temperature with our weather during the summer is weak in any case, but winter is a different story.   

So what do the latest forecasts suggest? As shown below, although there is quite a range in predictions, the general trend is towards continued neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.

What are the implications of neutral conditions for next winter?

Increased chances of a major wind event from an approaching midlatitude low-pressure system.

Increased chance of a strong atmospheric river that produces major flooding.

Bottom line: neutral years are known for their meteorological action.  

More Serious Rain Returns

 It has been cool, and there has been some light rain over western Washington.   Several of you have emailed me, asking when we will get more serious moisture.

Your answer is below.

Let me show you the latest European Center precipitation forecast for our region.  From 11 AM today through 5 AM Friday, there is light rain over the region, with moderate rain over the mountains.

With winds from the west, the eastern slopes of the Cascades will be rain-shadowed.

Then the rain picks up as a trough of low pressure moves through over the weekend, with the totals through Sunday morning exceeding 1 inch over the western slopes of the mountains.  Saturday might not be a good hiking day.

 The totals steadily increase through Tuesday morning.

You will notice that the precipitation will be relatively light over the lowlands of western Washington. Why?

This is because the winds often blow from the west this time of the year, which tends to produce downslope flow and drier conditions downstream (east) of our generally north-south terrain barriers.

This is illustrated by the winds around 5000 ft on Friday morning below.

During the winter, winds are more southerly, allowing more precipitation in the lowlands.

This type of pattern also produces large temperature contrasts across Washington State.

Consider the situation on Saturday at 5 PM.  Temperatures are in the low 50s in western Washington, but around 70°F in the Tri-Cities.  So head across the Cascades if you want some springtime warmth.

No Mid-May Heatwave This Year

 It is almost a tradition.

A significant heatwave during mid-May, where temperatures rise into the 80s.

A heatwave followed by cool "June Gloom" conditions during late May and June.

A mid-May heatwave is standard fare around here.   For example, in Seattle, there have been 70 days since 1946 in which the daily high temperature reached 80°F or more during the period May 7-May 21 (see below).   

This month, no day has reached 80°F, and we will be lucky to reach 70°F during the upcoming week.  

The figure below shows the daily extreme highs (red color) and lows (light blue) at Seattle Tacoma Airport from May 7 to May 21, with the blue colors showing the observed highs and lows.  Temperatures have been moderate so far...with no day approaching record highs, which are in the mid-80s. 

Consider the cool forecast from the highly skillful European Center (below).  High temperatures dropping into the 50s on Thursday, and no day reaching the 70s.

Turning to the forecast regional temperature anomalies from climatology (normal) for the next week. Blue and green are below normal.  Cold week ahead!

The following week is also colder than normal.

This cool weather will greatly slow the melting of the current snowpack, which is good for water resources. Also good will be the expected rain during the next week (see below)

My professional advice? Don't put your sweaters away yet.

Antisemitism at the University of Washington

There are so many positive things to say about the University of Washington's role as a regional center for education, research, and service to the community.

Unfortunately, during the past two years, these positives have been clouded by the tolerance of antisemitism on campus, antisemitism that has frequently turned violent and destructive.  

As described below, the current UW administration bears serious responsibility for allowing this situation to fester.

Many news reports and social media accounts have described the shameful activities that have occurred at the UW. 

Violent, pro-Hamas activists, many wearing masks and Keffiyehs, have called for the killing of Jews (see below) and for the destruction of Israel (from the River to the Sea).

 

Jewish students have been attacked.  One such student described such an incident to me.  He was walking on campus with an Israeli flag.  A group of masked individuals attacked him, pushing him to the ground, tearing up the flag, and then burning it.  Professor Stuart Reges was pummeled in the illicit pro-Hamas encampment of last year.

Antisemitic, anti-Israel vandals have defaced UW buildings, resulting in hundreds of dollars in costs (see below).

Last week, a violent, destructive pro-Hamas hate group took over the new Interdisciplinary Engineering Building, causing over a million dollars of damage.  Why?  Because Boeing contributed to the building.

And to accentuate their message, they started several large fires in dumpsters.

Last year, pro-Hamas supporters took over the Arts Quad with a large encampment, which is totally illegal on state property.

Hundreds of complaints of serious incidents of discrimination and hate against Jews were recorded by the Biden Administration, which sent a letter to the UW, noting the inadequate response of the administration.

When some Jewish students tried to speak to the UW Board of Regents about harassment and violence, a pro-Hamas group disrupted the meeting and was so threatening that the meeting had to be canceled.  The Jewish students and regents were forced to retreat to a safe space under UW police protection.

I have seen and experienced profoundly antisemitic activities in person. 

 Hamas supporters have gone around campus with amplified sound (which is illegal on campus), calling for the destruction of "colonialists"...Jews of Israel... from the River to the Sea (Mediterranean to the Jordan River).  The Chanukah celebration on Red Square in 2023 was harassed by Hamas supporters, who then topped off the evening by taking over the President's Office in the UW Administration Building.

According to ADL, the UW is one of the worst public schools in the nation regarding antisemitism, with a rating of D:

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of this situation has been the UW Administration's tolerance of hate speech, illegal activities, property destruction, and profound anti-Semitism.

For months, a patently illegal encampment was allowed and SUPPORTED by the UW with garbage cans and facilities.  Instead of ending the encampment with suspensions and arrests, the UW offered free scholarships to Gazan students, actions to investigate Islamophobia, and representation on committees.

Pro-Hamas activists would disrupt classes with amplified sound, and the UW did nothing. 

The Hamas supporters called for genocide against Jews, and the administration did nothing.

 Can you imagine if the same hate and threats were directed at Black, Hispanic, or Gay groups?  The UW would never tolerate it.

When a local church group had a rally on campus, during a period when the illegal encampment was in place, the UW protected the encampment with barriers and police (see pictures below).  Seriously, I am not making this up.

Recently, the College of Environment DEI office (now the Office of Inclusive Excellence) put out an email celebrating Arab Heritage Month and had links to patently antisemitic and anti-Israel websites. 

Last week, the Trump administration, following the Biden administration, warned the UW about the profound anti-Semitism on the UW campus and began a new investigation.  Clearly, if the current tolerance of hate continues, potential costs to the UW could be substantial, including the suspension of Federal grants.

Will the UW administration finally act to deal with this plague of hate?    

A good first step would be to ban outdoor masks, something done by other universities (like the University of California system, Columbia).   Ban public speech calling for violence.  Make it clear that students participating in illegal activities will be arrested and expelled.

Hate and violence have no place on the UW campus, and the current administration has been irresponsible in allowing violence and destructive anti-Semitism to continue for nearly two years.

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.   

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined.  This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.  

But it is worse than that.  

NOAA global predictions have a severe "drop out" problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill.  Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.

Let me show you.

Below are the skills of various modeling systems from April over the northern hemisphere.  

It evaluates the ability of models to get things right in the middle of the troposphere...around 18,000 ft (500 hPa pressure)--for a day 6 forecast.    1 indicated perfect score.  Above about .8 the forecast is quite useful.  Below ~.65 not so much.

The best forecast is the European Center (red line), while the US model (black line) is generally much less skillful.

Note that sometimes the US model skill drops like a rock to below .7 and on one date to below .6.  These are drop outs...and represent severe loss of skill.

Note that the European model almost never does the same.

During the past few days (May 3-4), the U.S. model had another loss of skill (day 5 is shown in this graphic, with red being the US model, blue and black the European Center).  Very bad.

Certain atmospheric flow patterns appear to give the US model a hard time.   One of them is an omega block, in which a ridge (high) has two troughs (lows) on both sides.

In fact, we had a version of this during the past week (see below)

Important:  this dropout problem has been going on for years and has nothing to do with budget cutbacks, fired personnel, or some weather balloons not being launched. 

Let us be clear.   The U.S. needs a vital, state-of-science NOAA, with weather prediction capabilities that are the best that weather science can provide.

Many of us in the weather community understand what is wrong with NOAA and have concrete ideas on how to fix this unfortunate situation.    I have written two published papers on the topic and have served on several national committees that provided strong recommendations.

The current administration wants to fix NOAA and make American weather prediction "great again."   But during the first months of their tenure, it has made serious errors, such as mindlessly firing junior staff.  

Will they talk to the meteorological community to develop a science-informed plan that could greatly improve U.S. environmental prediction and do so at a lesser cost than today?

I hope so.  It would be a home run for the American people.

_______

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions, talk about the spring forecast, and perhaps discuss the current NOAA situation.

There Is No Trend in Northwest Snowpack for the Past 40 Years

It may come as a shock to some, but there has been little trend in Northwest snowpack over the past 40 years.  This is true even though the globe is slowly warming due to increased greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane).

Plenty of snow still at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

Research meteorologist Mark Albright, who for years was Washington State Climatologist, has plotted the April 1 Northwest snowpack (WA, OR, ID, western MT) over the past 41 years (1984-2025).  

The plot below shows SWE--Snow Water Equivalent-- depth of liquid water that would remain if a column of snow were melted.

The horizontal solid line is the long-term annual average (19 inches), and the red line shows a 5-year running mean average.

This year was above the average.   There is very little suggestion of long-term decline.

Although this year was near normal for the entire region, that does not mean every location was near normal.  As shown below,  the snowpack's water content in individual areas varied substantially.

Most of Oregon is above normal.  Southern WA is above normal, the central Cascades are below normal, and the Olympics are near normal.   Such regional variation is well...quite normal.

The snowpack is good enough that snowmelt has driven the Yakima Reservoir levels (blue line) above last year's.

Looking forward, we have a dry week ahead, but things will get wet next week, with substantial precipitation expected (see below).

So, at this point in time, there is no reason to expect any water "emergencies" or droughts as we go into the summer.

________________________

I will be talking at the UW Olympic Natural Resources Center at 7 PM on Tuesday, May 6.  

Open to all and free.  My topic will be "The Great Storms of the Northwest Coast."  They will zoom it as well.

_______

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions, talk about the spring forecast, and perhaps discuss the current NOAA situation.

The Sea Breeze Season Has Begun

 With the strengthening sun and increased warming of coastal land, the coastal sea breeze is becoming stronger on the Washington coast.

Today is a good example.

As a reminder, sea breezes occur when coastal land becomes warmer than the adjacent ocean.   Warming causes air to become less dense, which results in lower pressure over land, which drives the onshore rush of air....the sea breeze (see schematic).

Consider the winds at Hoquiam Airport today (on the central Washington coast).

Wind speeds were near calm around 7 AM, but rapidly strengthened during the morning to around 15 mph around noon. After 6 PM, as the land cooled, the winds weakened. Classic sea breeze.

 The wind direction during the onshore sea breeze period was 270°, which is from the west.

At the leading edge of the sea breeze (called the sea breeze front),  air is pushed up, often forming clouds (see schematic).

Those clouds were evident today.  The high-resolution visible satellite image around 10:45 AM shows the line of clouds at the front edge of the sea freeze.

The Washington Coast is an excellent location for sea breezes because the water is relatively cool (around 50°F during the warm season).  Once the land gets 5°F or more, warmer than the water, the sea breeze circulation begins to rev up.

Finally, high-resolution weather prediction models can skillfully predict sea breezes.  

To illustrate, here is the 3-day model prediction of windspeed at Hoquiam starting today at 5 AM. Beautiful daily ups and downs of wind speed from the sea breeze.

High Temperatures, Large Temperature Contrasts, and Crazy Hot Stations

 Today was the warmest day of the year so far for our region, with several stations getting into the 80s.  And a short drive could result in a 20°F temperature change.

To illustrate, here are the high temperatures today (Thursday).  60s on the coast, mid-70s in central Puget Sound, lower 80s around Portland, 70s and low 80s in eastern Washington.

The contrasts were remarkable.   Here in Seattle, temperatures ranged from the upper 50s and 60s near the water to the lower 80s on Mercer Island or on the eastside.

The high-resolution model forecasts for 5 PM Thursday pretty much picked up on most of this pattern.

But now the problem.  

The warmth and sun have clearly shown that a significant number of temperature sensors in our region are broken, with those temperatures being way too warm.

The National Weather Service forecast office, adjacent to cool Lake Washington, reported a high of 90°F, while nearby stations only rose to the upper 70s.   It's wrong.  A little embarrassing....😂

Or consider Friday Harbor in the San Juans.  It has a high of 79°F, while nearby stations were in the 60s.  Clearly wrong.

Next,  87F in Darrington, with nearby stations in the low 70s and 60s.

Finally, it was  96°F east of Pasco, with no station within 10°F of this extreme value.

I could show you a dozen more of these.  Temperature errors are widespread, and most problematic stations are too warm.   There are many reasons for this type of error, including broken fans or poorly sited temperature instruments (e.g., direct sun exposure).

Such errors can enhance warming trends unrealistically.  

Now the shocker.   I checked with the head of a local National Weather Service office whether there was any automatic monitoring of temperature sensor performance at local observing sites.   Software that would make all kinds of temperature quality checks, including comparison with other local sites.

Surprisingly, the answer was no.    Doubly surprising since writing such software would be easy.

Not good.  

So my pro-tip for the day:  if you learn of an impressive temperature record at a location, make sure the reading is reliable.

________________________

I will be talking at the UW Olympic Natural Resources Center at 7 PM on Tuesday, May 6.  

Open to all and free.  My topic will be "The Great Storms of the Northwest Coast."  They will zoom it as well.