Does Low Snowpack Increase the Chances of Washington State Wildfires?

You hear this all the time in the media and by climate advocacy groups:

A below-normal snowpack means enhanced wildfire danger in Washington State.

Some samples are shown below:

_________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________

The truth is that such claims are not true.   Snowpack variability has very little correlation with the area of local wildfires.

Other meteorological conditions are FAR more important than snowpack regarding wildfire acreage and the large wildfires in our region.

The facts are very clear.   To demonstrate the lack of relationship between snowpack and wildfire area, below is a plot of April 1 snowpack (the standard measure)--shown by the blue line-- and the annual acreage of burned area--red line-- for Washington State for 2002 to 2025.

You will notice very little correlation between the two lines.  Snowpack has ups and downs, perhaps a slight downward trend.  Wildfire acreage has wild excursions that generally are not associated with changes in snowpack.

Of the 24 years shown, only ONE (2015) had a combination of low snowpack and large wildfire area.  But it was NOT because of snowpack.

The year was unusual for other reasons, with a crazy, persistent summer ridge of high pressure over the region, that produced very anomalous high temperatures--something shown below, and lack of summer precipitation.  2015 was the hottest summer on record in our region.

The facts are very clear.   

Snowpack has very little to do with regional wildfires.   High temperature during the summer is a major contributor, since it contributes to drying of surface fuels.   High winds are a contributor to some of the biggest fires, since winds can fan and spread the flames, and can contribute to fire ignition (e.g, from wildfires).  Low summer relative humidity is a contributor.  Low summer precipitation can contribute since that leads to low fuel moisture.

Snowpack has little to do with our local wildfires.  During a normal year, the snowpack has generally melted by early summer over the lower to middle elevations where most wildfires occur. Remember, most of wildfire are in mid-summer to early fall.   Interestingly, above-normal snowfall can contribute to MORE wildfires if it provides moisture for more vegetative growth.  Vegetation that later dries and becomes flammable.

Why is the Seattle Times and others providing obviously false information to the public about snowpack and wildfire?  Even Google's AI knows better:

Our Reservoirs are Now Full, Months Ahead of Time

The recent rain has done something amazing:  filled many of our reservoirs to full, months ahead of time    

Levels of fill that normally require snowpack melt during spring.

Consider the all-important Yakima Reservoirs (below), which are now at levels normally only reached in mid-June.  Amazing.

In Seattle, the reservoir levels exceeded normal maximum levels in June, and they released some water to ensure sufficient capacity to handle flooding:

What about Spada Lake, the massive storage reservoir for Everett?  It is now full! (blue line is this year, brown line is full)

The Northwest River Forecast Center's predictions for local streamflow are getting more favorable for regional rivers, as illustrated by the 120-day prediction of streamflow for mid-summer (below),   Most are around 100% of normal

To provide a specific example, there is the extended forecast for the Yakima River.  Black is the predicted for this year.  Much above normal (green line) into May and near normal during mid-summer.

Bottom line:   I am cautiously optimistic about our Washington State water resources this summer and that there will be no drought.