Warming Temperatures.....But Western Washington And Oregon Will Miss Low-Level Smoke

During the next few days, temperatures will surge upwards west of the Cascades into the low 90s, but a significant smoke intrusion is NOT expected in the west.

This is in contrast to highly deceptive (and incorrect)  media reports, such as in the Seattle Times (see below).

In fact, a lot of media outlets are providing such inaccurate information (such as Public Radio Station KUOW:

Currently, surface air quality in the west is excellent (see the proof below). Green dots indicate very clean air.

The most powerful tool for looking at future smoke impacts is the NOAA HRRR smoke model.   

Consider the latest forecast run.   Below is the predicted low-level smoke concentration for 4 AM tomorrow morning.  Minimal smoke over the lowlands.

Ditto for 5 PM tomorrow.

And even less smoke west of the Cascades on Wednesday morning.  If you are living west of the Cascades, you will breathe easily.

There will be a short warm period (two days) with temperatures reaching as high as the low 90s, followed by a cooling to near normal levels for the rest of the month.

This is illustrated by the latest Weather.com forecast for Seattle (below).  The Weather.com forecast is generally far more accurate than the National Weather Service.  

With all the wildfire hype going on in social media and elsewhere, it is important to note that there are no major wildfires over western Washington, in the Cascades, or on the eastern slopes of that barrier.   

You want proof?  Here is the last large fire map by the USDA Forest Service:

The Cascades act as a barrier for the smoke from the easstern Washington fires or the smoke coming in from Canada.   Not easy to move the smoke down to the surface from the east.

Finally, for those worried about wildfire, it appears that there will be significant precipitation over the next week, which is close to the climatologically driest time of the year.  

To show this, below is the latest European Center total precipitation forecast over the next 8 days. 

Impressive for this time of the year.

Grass and Range Fires East of the Cascades

As expected, the massive lightning event this week led to the ignition of several wildfires.

But our region lucked out:  few fires were started on the eastern slopes of the Cascades within forested areas.  

This is because we are in the early season, which means less time for drying in the slow-to-dry forested areas, and because of the distribution of lightning (relatively little lightning on the eastern slopes).

Below is a map of the largest fires.  

Most were in grass and range vegetation, with the greatest fire activity in southeast Washington and northeast Oregon, where the most lightning occurred.

You can see the smoke in the midday high-resolution visible satellite image (as well as low marine clouds over western Washington).

Some satellites can observe the heat from the fires....and here is the same image with fire locations (orange dots).

The grass/rangeland of northeast Oregon is clearly the "hot spot" for the fires.

It is important to note that such fires have little to do with global warming or heat waves. 

 Light fuels, such as grass and range vegetation, are typically dried by now, and lightning events like this week have no correlation with a warming planet.

Want proof that the moisture level of the fuels (grass/range vegetation) was not unusual?

 Below is the data from the US Forest Service showing you the 100-hour fuel moisture levels. (100-hour fuels include dead organic materials, such as branches and dead roundwood, that measure between 1 and 3 inches in diameter.) The observed moisture levels (red line) are in the middle of the average range (gray shading).

But something has changed over the past decades the was made our grass/rangelends far more flammable...the invasion of explosive-burning cheatgrass and other fire-friendly species.

This map shows you the extent of the problem and why eastern Washington and Oregon are so vulnerable

Flammable grasses have taken over the region (see below), and ignition by lightning or human activities can start a firestorm.

And there is one more thing.  

To get large fire growth requires strong winds, and the weather systems that produced the thunderstorms also provided large wind gusts, both during the storms and after.   

Want proof?  Check out the maximum winds on Thursday (below).

Winds are declining now, and you can expect that the grass/range fires will quickly decline.