The Is No Drought Emergency in Washington State

On April 8, Washington State declared a DROUGHT EMERGENCY for Washington State. 

 In fact, this is the fourth year in a row that the Washington State Department of Ecology has done so.

As described below, these drought emergency declarations are unwarranted and are contradictory to meteorological facts and the actual impacts.

Let me remind you about the definitions of emergency and drought.

An emergency must be sudden and unexpected, requiring immediate action to prevent imminent danger.  It is a crisis.   As I will prove below, this does not characterize what has happened in Washington this year or the past few years.

The term "drought"  means both MUCH drier than normal conditions and significant negative impacts of the dryness.

Half the years have below-normal precipitation.  Half the years have below-normal snowpack.  All these below-normal years are not drought years.

Let us consider the water situation this year.

The major reservoirs of our state are full or WAY above normal in water storage. Some examples"

Seattle:  much above normal.

Everett:  much above normal

The critically important Yakima River reservoir system:  FULL and much above normal.  

The Columbia River water levels are above normal, and predictions are for plenty of water for both irrigation and power. The Columbia is the most important source of irrigation water in eastern Washington.  It irrigates TEN TIMES the number of acres as the Yakima River. 

River levels in the state are all close to normal.

Precipitation over the State for the water year (October 1 to now)?

Above normal for most of the state,  and MUCH above normal in the mountains (that is why all the reservoirs are so full!)

Soil moisture?  Above normal!

Crop moisture?    Above normal in much of the state, nowhere below normal.

Current status of crops?    They are in excellent shape with extremely high yields for winter wheat. Apples look good as well

So with all this good water news, why is the Washington State Department of Ecology calling a drought emergency?

They claim it is because the state snowpack is below normal:  about half of average (see below).  This snowpack normally melts in May and June, helping to top off the reservoirs and support streamflow during the early to mid-summer.

Don't get me wrong.  It would be better if the snowpack were normal.  But there really is no water problem this summer with the current snowpack and certainly no drought.

First, 50% snowpack is not zero, and there will be substantial snowmelt water available during the next few months.   

Second, reservoir managers were very wise and used the above-normal precipitation of the past winter to fill all the reservoirs.  Better weather prediction supports this, since they can fill the reservoirs, knowing they would have time to partially drain them if a major storm approaches.

Third, and this is not advertised by the water fear mongers, Washington State gets much more precipitation (including snow water) than it needs, and much of the snowmelt moves down the rivers into the sea.

Fourth, Washington State agriculture can do quite well with below normal precipitation.   This is true of the Yakima basin farmers when they don't get their full allotment.  

What happened during the 2025 Drought Emergency?

The Washington State Department of Ecology is undermining its credibility with these inflammatory and unscientific drought emergencies.   

They would be wise to read some classical literature, such as The Boy Who Cried Wolf and Chicken Little (The Sky Is Falling).    One loses credibility when exaggerating threats.  Eventually, others don't take you seriously.

The Sky is Falling!

Warm But Not Hot

 During the first two weeks of May, there is often a short warm period that surges to 80°F or more, followed by a serious cool down.

This year will be no different.

Below are the forecast temperatures for Seattle.  Warming to 80F on Monday, followed by cooling into the upper 60s, with no major heat through May 11.

To illustrate this typical temperature pattern, below is a plot of temperatures in Seattle for April 1- May 31, 2024.  Observed temperatures are in blue and record highs in red.  Record lows in blue.

A major warm-up around May 9, followed by cooler temperatures the rest of the month.  Classic.  

You will notice that May brings the end of any frost threat.....good for gardeners to keep in mind.

So why do we often see a spike in temperatures in early May followed by cooling?

First, the sun has become strong in May, as strong as it will be in August.  Solar radiation at noon is summer-like, and days have become longer.  

Below is the solar radiation reaching Seattle since January 2025.  By May 1, we are really cooking.

To get warm temperatures, even in summer, we need a period of offshore flow, since onshore flow off the chilly Pacific will not allow us to get out of the 60s.

To produce the upcoming warming, this weekend will bring offshore-directed (easterly) winds, as illustrated by the winds, temperatures, and heights (pressures) around 5000 ft (850 hPa pressure) on Saturday morning (below).

Why do we typically have fewer really warm days later in the month?  

Because later in May brings extensive low-cloud areas over the eastern Pacific as high-pressure builds offshore.  This high pressure pushes the cloudy/cool air into western Washington. 

We call this "June Gloom," but it typically starts to move in during mid-May.

Here is an example of June Gloom cloudiness from last May.  Enough to make me want to grab a sweater.