NOAA Is Critically Needed But Requires Reform

The meteorological and climatology community is going through a difficult period right now, with fears about cutbacks in NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) and related agencies.

The headlines in major and minor media are scary (see below), with much of the information without factual basis (such as the suggestion of 50% cuts in personnel).

The truth is that NOAA does critical and irreplaceable work. 

It is also true NOAA has fallen seriously behind in important areas, with an inefficient bureaucracy that has impeded progress.

NOAA needs to be retained but also requires serious reform.

NOAA's Importance to the Nation

NOAA does essential work, such as collecting important weather and climate information. 

 NOAA is responsible for many weather satellites as well as the backbone surface and upper air data upon which the entire weather forecast enterprise is based.

NOAA's National Ocean Service provides valued products from tidal and ocean level information to coastal surveys and support for marine sanctuaries.  

NOAA provides critical warnings that the private sector will not produce because of legal risks.

NOAA is filled with very competent and highly educated scientists and technologists.  I have and still work with many of them.

NOAA Needs Reform

But with all its strengths, NOAA is profoundly in need of serious reform and improvement.

Few NOAA products are as important as numerical weather prediction, but unfortunately, NOAA global prediction now greatly lags behind others in forecast skill and reliability (NOAA is now in fourth place).

National Weather Service forecasts (produced by local offices) are generally less skillful than the WeatherChannel, Apple, and leading private sector firms.

NOAA is well behind the European Center and private firms in using cutting-edge machine-learning approaches.

NOAA computer resources for weather and climate prediction are inadequate at best, limiting progress in improving forecast skill.

National Weather Service offices have been underfunded and understaffed for decades.  NOAA management has prioritized climate efforts over weather prediction for a long time.

And NOAA is an inefficient bureaucratic nightmare, with responsibilities divided among too many offices and individuals, with a lack of responsibility within one individual or group.  Too many folks in middle management.    The buck stops nowhere.

I could write volumes about NOAA deficiencies...and in fact, I have written two papers on the topic, testified in Congress on this issue, and served on several advisory committees.  

The dominant attention given to climate change work should give way to a more balanced research portfolio including ocean pollution, extreme weather, weather and ocean prediction, wildfire meteorology, and other important areas.

Finally,  NOAA is spending a lot of money on ineffective and divisive DEI and Social Justice activities that have little to do with its mission.

What The New Administration Needs to Do

Before starting any surgery, the new administration needs to understand the problems and strengths of the organization.  

NOAA needs to appraise what NOAA is doing well and where it lags.  Where reorganization is required and where its mission needs clarification.

There is no doubt that major change is required.

There are many in the weather, climate, and ocean community that are ready to advise, including the American Meteorological Society and those in the general community.  

We know what is wrong.  We know which NOAA closets have skeletons.   We know the steps needed to catch up in weather prediction.   DOGE needs to talk to us.

With strong leadership, a reorganized NOAA would provide the nation with the best environmental guidance in the world.

The Spring Transition Comes Early in the Northwest

Ask someone when spring starts and you expect to hear around March 20-22, during the time of the Spring Equinox.

But here in western Washington, the biggest transition generally occurs weeks earlier, generally during the past week in February or the first week of March.

Let me demonstrate this to you.

Consider lowland snow.    The figure below shows the daily average (green) and daily extreme (blue) snowfall in Seattle.  The red line indicates March 15.   

The big stuff is all in January.   We have enjoyed as much as 5 inches into early March, but only light snow after the first week of the month.

No snow days after March 7.  Sorry kids.

An early March end of snow  is also observed in the Tri-Cities (Richland shown below)

What about temperature?

Let's start with the daily averages for mean (brown), lows (blue), and highs (red) at Seattle. 

 Low temperatures stagnate until about February 20th, after which they steadily rise.  The average temperature is similar.    The highs start to rise earlier.

Very similar situation at Pasco (below), except the highs really start to rev up in February.

Why?  I suspect the substantial decline in low clouds and the increasing solar radiation in February are the explanations.

What about temperature EXTREMES?    I have an interesting story for you there.

In the figure below, the red color indicates the daily record highs, and blues the daily record lows.

For Seattle, early February represents the end of really cold temps (15F or less) and after early March, the low 20s are unattainable.   In January, highs have never reached the mid-60s but 80F has happened after the Ides of March.

For Passo, there is a near-step function in temperature in early March, when record highs consistently rising into the upper 70s while lows below 15F just don't happen anymore.

This year the atmosphere seems antsy to go through the spring transition.  In Seattle, temperatures will jump into the low to mid-50s by the end of the week.

And in Pasco, temperatures will surge to near 60F by next Monday.

The icing on the "spring transition" cake will be the beginning of Daily Savings Time on March 9th!   

The unbeatable combination of warmth and more evening sun.