No Major Heatwaves in Our Future

Good news for those of you who dislike heatwaves:

There are none forecast over the Pacific Northwest for the next 10 days.

Importantly, we are running out of time to experience a serious heatwave in our region.

First, let's define what is meant by a heatwave.  

According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), a heatwave occurs when there are more than five consecutive days during which the maximum temperature exceeds normal by 9F or more.

We are now past the peak period for major Northwest heatwaves, as shown by the plot of record high temperatures (red shading) from June 1 through October 1 below.  Today is down by the red arrow.  

The really high temperatures really decline after mid-August.

Why?  Because daily solar radiation is declining relatively rapidly now, and the days are getting shorter (see plot below)

The current forecasts indicate no heatwaves for much of the rest of the month.

Consider the National Weather Service forecast temperatures for Seattle Tacoma Airport (below).  During the next ten days, temperatures are expected to climb to around 80F before declining in the mid-70s.

Yakima warms up into the low 90s before dropping into the mid-80s.  Close to average.

The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook is for generally normal conditions over the western US.

And their precipitation outlook is for wetter than normal conditions.

In short, at this point it appears that our summer is heading for an unremarkable end, with near-normal conditions.  

You want weather excitement?  Head to Hawaii, where a potent tropical storm will approach this weekend (see below)

As the storm moves through, heavy rain will hit many of the islands (see below).

California Wildfire Acreage is Well Below Normal With Little Upward Trend: Why is the Media/Climate Activists Not Telling This Story?

This year, wildfire acreage in California has been well below average and is being eclipsed by the lightning-initiated wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.   The nearly fire-free California situation is evident satelite/ fire image from yesterday (active fires shown by the orange dots).

Lots in Washington and Oregon, very little in California.

In fact, according to official CALFIRE statistics (shown below), the total acreage this year is LESS THAN HALF of the five-year average!

The media and climate activists have been quite silent about this.  

Can you imagine if the wildfire acreage was twice the average?   The supposed connection with climate change would be on the front page.

In fact, some media and others are actively pushing the unsupported narrative:

Ready for the Truth?

Let's look at the actual wildfire data for California!  

Consider the actual burned area data for the past 30 years (below).  A period in which global warming has been occurring.

You see a large trend?   I don't.  

There was a short period in the early 2020s when unusual meteorology drove some big fires, but the wildfire numbers have declined since then.

This lack of a long-term trend in California wildfire activity actually occurred during a period of increasing human ignitions of wildfires (e.g., from powerlines, arson, etc.).

In fact, the best estimates are that humans have initiated roughly two-thirds of wildfires in California since 1992 (see below).  I suspect these ignitions have had little to do with global warming.   At the same time there there has been an invasion of non-native flammable grasses.

The bottom line is that there is no rapidly increasing globe-warming-induced wildfire trend in California.  Such claims are demonstrably false.   

Finally, let me note that you can not believe AI inquiries on this topic.

Want proof?  I asked Google Gemini whether California was having a low wildfire year (see below).  Its answer was the OPPOSITE of the truth.   

I then told it was wrong, and it admitted it was fibbing

I wish the Seattle Times, YouTube Channel climate activists, and others would be willing to look at the data and acknowledge they have been providing inaccurate information regarding the climate/wildfire connection.