Not All Temperature Records Are Equal

Some records are more significant than others.  

And some records are being used to hype normal temperature variability in unfortunate ways.

Consider yesterday (Sunday).   SeaTac Airport beat its daily record (77F0 for that specific date, reaching 81°F.   

The Seattle Times puts the 81°F day on the FRONT PAGE!  Must be a slow news day.

The Seattle Times story was heavy on hype, with several unfounded statements (see below).

Temperatures scorched past their record high.

Foreshadowing the inevitable summer of drought.  (This is total nonsense, by the way).

Should you worry about the RECORD high temperature yesterday?    Read on.

Why Monday's record did not mean much.

Monday's record high was a daily record.   

Daily records are frequently broken because there are so many opportunities to do so (365 chances each year!).    Breaking an annual record (the warmest day of the year) is much more significant.

Breaking the daily high-temperature record yesterday was particularly lame.  

Why?  Because the previous high temperature on that date (77F) was particularly low.  

You can see this by looking at the plot  (at SeaTac) of observed temperatures (blue lines) and record highs (red shading).   The previous record high temperature on that day (77F) was anomalously COLD.  The coldest daily high for ANY DAY IN MAY.    Even the end of April had warmer record highs. 

By the luck of the draw, May 3 never got above 77°F, and thus this was a record ready to be broken.  Low-hanging meteorological fruit.

The 81F record is still a low record high in May at SeaTac, cooler than ALL the other record highs for the month.

Breaking this wimply record has little meaning and does not foretell an inevitable summer drought as stated by the Seattle Times reporter (Conrad Swanson).

The latest forecasts are emphatic that there will be a cool down, with light precipitation returning.

The latest European Center Forecast has  SeaTac temperatures dropping to normal  (highs in the 60s).

Showers will return on Friday and Saturday (see below).

The kind of hype and exaggeration of heat and drought found in the Seattle Times and several amateur YouTube channels is unfortunate.

People are being misinformed and made to worry without cause.  Hyping climate change and exaggerating normal climate variability may get more clicks and revenue, but the costs of such misinformation are substantial.

There Is No Drought Emergency in Washington State

On April 8, Washington State declared a DROUGHT EMERGENCY for Washington State. 

 In fact, this is the fourth year in a row that the Washington State Department of Ecology has done so.

As described below, these drought emergency declarations are unwarranted and are contradictory to meteorological facts and the actual impacts.

Let me remind you about the definitions of emergency and drought.

An emergency must be sudden and unexpected, requiring immediate action to prevent imminent danger.  It is a crisis.   As I will prove below, this does not characterize what has happened in Washington this year or the past few years.

The term "drought"  means both MUCH drier than normal conditions and significant negative impacts of the dryness.

Half the years have below-normal precipitation.  Half the years have below-normal snowpack.  All these below-normal years are not drought years.

Let us consider the water situation this year.

The major reservoirs of our state are full or WAY above normal in water storage. Some examples"

Seattle:  much above normal.

Everett:  much above normal

The critically important Yakima River reservoir system:  FULL and much above normal.  

The Columbia River water levels are above normal, and predictions are for plenty of water for both irrigation and power. The Columbia is the most important source of irrigation water in eastern Washington.  It irrigates TEN TIMES the number of acres as the Yakima River. 

River levels in the state are all close to normal.

Precipitation over the State for the water year (October 1 to now)?

Above normal for most of the state,  and MUCH above normal in the mountains (that is why all the reservoirs are so full!)

Soil moisture?  Above normal!

Crop moisture?    Above normal in much of the state, nowhere below normal.

Current status of crops?    They are in excellent shape with extremely high yields for winter wheat. Apples look good as well

So with all this good water news, why is the Washington State Department of Ecology calling a drought emergency?

They claim it is because the state snowpack is below normal:  about half of average (see below).  This snowpack normally melts in May and June, helping to top off the reservoirs and support streamflow during the early to mid-summer.

Don't get me wrong.  It would be better if the snowpack were normal.  But there really is no water problem this summer with the current snowpack and certainly no drought.

First, 50% snowpack is not zero, and there will be substantial snowmelt water available during the next few months.   

Second, reservoir managers were very wise and used the above-normal precipitation of the past winter to fill all the reservoirs.  Better weather prediction supports this, since they can fill the reservoirs, knowing they would have time to partially drain them if a major storm approaches.

Third, and this is not advertised by the water fear mongers, Washington State gets much more precipitation (including snow water) than it needs, and much of the snowmelt moves down the rivers into the sea.

Fourth, Washington State agriculture can do quite well with below normal precipitation.   This is true of the Yakima basin farmers when they don't get their full allotment.  

What happened during the 2025 Drought Emergency?

The Washington State Department of Ecology is undermining its credibility with these inflammatory and unscientific drought emergencies.   

They would be wise to read some classical literature, such as The Boy Who Cried Wolf and Chicken Little (The Sky Is Falling).    One loses credibility when exaggerating threats.  Eventually, others don't take you seriously.

The Sky is Falling!