Wind and Wildfire

When it comes to Northwest wildfires, many only consider precipitation and temperature.

But for most Northwest wildfires during the summer, another element is more important:  strong winds.

Recent grass and range fires in eastern Washington are prime examples of their "windy" origin.

For example, yesterday, there was a grass fire near Winthrop (see below).  Strong winds were crucial.

Another grass/range fire (the Peterson fire) surged rapidly this week in Klickitat County (below).  Strong winds again.

A few weeks ago, large range fires (e.g., Juniper Dune, Tule Rd) were also forced by strong winds.

In a map of recent eastern Washington wildfires, virtually all were associated with strong winds (graphic courtesy of the Washington State Department of Ecology).

More than climate change warming, strong winds are the essential ingredient for the large grass/range fires in the region.  

In fact, cool/wet spring weather can worsen wildfires in our region, since wet/cool springs enhance the amount of vegetation, which inevitably dries out during our typically arid summers.  That means more fuel.

This week was a great example of strong winds, associated with cooler temperatures, leading to rapidly growing range/grass fires.

Consider the winds at Ellensburg from June 22 to today (below).  Sustained winds are shown in blue and gusts with black dots.

A large acceleration of the winds started on June 26, with some gusts reaching over 50 mph!

As the winds increased, temperatures greatly COOLED at this location (see below).

Want to be impressed with how strong the winds have been this week, east of the Cascade crest?   

Below are the maximum gusts yesterday (Sunday) over eastern Washington.   

Wow.  Many exceed 50 mph, and some reach over 60 mph.

Why are there strong, fire-supporting winds when temperatures cool?

When cool air moves into the region from the west, it causes pressure to rise west of the crest, since cold air is denser and heavier.  That causes low-level pressure to rise.   Even if some cool air gets over the Cascades, the depth of the cool air is greater west of the crest, allowing the pressure to rise more to the west.

To illustrate, there is a sea level pressure analysis (solid lines), sustained surface winds (wind barbs), and low-level temperatures (color shading_ at 5 PM Wednesday.   Cooler temperatures to the west and a strong pressure difference over the Cascades.  

A day later,  eastern Washington had cooled, and much stronger winds had spread over the Inland Empire.

This weekend, temperatures will warm, and the winds along the eastern slopes of the Cascades should weaken.  

A Cool/Wet Start of Summer

The forecasts for the next week or so are definitive:   we are going to start the summer quite cool and wet.

And the implications for both wildfires, water resources, and agriculture are quite positive.

Let me begin with temperature, showing you the temperature anomalies from normal for the next 15 days from the most skillful system in the world (the AI forecast of the European Center). 

Blue indicates below normal (up to 5 F colder than normal), and green indicates even colder anomalies.

For the next five days, the whole region is cold, with some areas of Oregon over 10F colder than normal.  

The following five days (through July 2) are colder than normal over the entire region, with British Columbia being the most frigid.

Even colder for the following five days (through July 7).

In Seattle, my colleagues at the National Weather Service don't predict high temperatures will reach 70F during the next week (below).

Importantly, no big heatwave in eastern Washington, so crops will not be stressed.  To show this, here are the predicted temperatures at Yakima.  Very temperate for the dry side.

And there will be precipitation at times through July 8. 

Substantial amounts in the Cascades (up to around 2-3 inches) and large totals in the Rockies (see below).  Importantly, even eastern Washington will get some light rain.

Want more good news?     

This kind of cool pattern is very favorable for wind energy, as it is associated with substantial westerly winds descending the eastern slopes of the Cascades.   To demonstrate this, below are the latest wind generation numbers from Bonneville (below)

Wind energy generation (the green line) surged upwards as temperatures cooled.  Furthermore, energy use (red line) has dropped substantially as air conditioning demands have declined with the cooler temperatures.