How Much Has Global Warming Changed July 4th Temperatures Over Washington State?

Walking my dog yesterday, I ran into a neighbor who asked whether July 4th temperatures in our area had changed much under global warming. 

I promised to run the numbers... and here are the results.  

Be prepared to be surprised 😀.

Starting at Olympia, on the western side of the state, there is almost no trend in July 4 daily average temperatures since the 1940s! (The purple line is the linear trend).

What about the highest temperatures each year on July 4 in Olympia?   

No trend!  

OK, now let's check Yakima in eastern Washington! 

The July 4 average temperature trend is slightly upward (a little less than 2 F over 75 years).

The trend in the maximum temperatures at Yakima is similar.  Modest upward increase.

And then there is Spokane, over the northeast side of Washington (below).  Very little trend in average July 4th temperatures or in the highest temperatures on that date.

What about precipitation on July 4th in Olympia?  As shown below, there is little evidence of a long-term trend.

Anyway,  a big yawn is appropriate for the July 4 trends in temperature over Washington State.

The planet is slowly warming for sure, but the temperature trends in Washington State are very, very modest.

But you might get a different answer if you relied on AI.  

I asked Google's AI to create a graphic summarizing the July 4 temperature trend over Washington.

It created the graphic below, with a dramatic upward trend over Washington from 26F to 80°F since 1990 (below).  Was it really below freezing in July in 1990?

Total nonsense.  

A Perfect July 4th Weekend in the Pacific Northwest

With an extreme heat watch over much of the central and northeast U.S., including temperatures reaching near 100 F (see below), it is good to know that the weather over the Northwest will be near perfect over the holiday weekend.

Temperatures will rise into the mid-70s in Seattle on Friday through Sunday, while temperatures in eastern Washington will reach about 90F.  

A forecast map of surface air temperatures around 8 PM on Saturday, July 4,  shows the mild temperatures in western Washington, with reasonable warmth in the Columbia Basin.     Cool in the mountains.

No worries about precipitation on July 4th, as illustrated by 3-h precipitation totals ending 11 PM that day (below).

Obscuring clouds on Independence Day?    Here is the cloud prediction for 5 PM Saturday.   Mostly clearly, except for high terrain in the Olympics.

To make things even better, the cool/wet conditions this week have made regional fuels less flammable, reducing fire risk this weekend (when all kinds of crazy fireworks activity will occur).   See the predicted ERC and Fuel Moisture values below.  There are no reds (serious risk) and only some marginal values (orange).

  But please be careful.