July Fourth is the most wildfire-prone day of the year, with a massive number of human ignition sources spread across the region. So please be careful.
Today, Washington will be relatively dry, but eastern Oregon will have some natural fireworks from several thunderstorms.
The current (Friday at 8 AM) radar image shows the rain from the thunderstorms over Oregon (below).
The UW WRF model predicts that the main shower area will move to northern Oregon and Idaho by mid-afternoon.
Why showers over Oregon? Because of an upper-level trough/low pressure moving through southern Oregon and northern California.
The biggest wildfire threat today is from fireworks igniting dry grass and light vegetation.
Below is the map (from USDA Fuelcast) of dry fuel amounts over the region. Plenty of fuel over eastern Washington and Oregon.
It was a rather chilly morning in the Bellingham area this Independence Day. I observed a morning minimum temperature of 48.4F at my location - the lowest July temperature since 2020. KBLI appears to have observed a low of 46F - the lowest July temperature since 2019 if verified.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, if verified, the 46F low temperature at KBLI would be the 3rd coldest Independence Day daily minimum temperature on record for the location.
ReplyDeleteIf you focus in on the USDA Fuelcast map the irrigated Kittitas Valley (red) shows in the center. The white area near the center is where Ellensburg is. No doubt there is fuel here - - much grass and alfalfa hay. The first cutting is already in storage.
ReplyDeleteWithin this area are fuel-ladened riparian zones. Over the past 75 (?) years these areas have large trees (some dying of old age) and dense brush – see this site under Overbank Zone. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/plantmaterials/wapmstn13160.pdf
My house is just 100 feet downwind of this zone. Cutting the vegetation back is a yearly task – growth is relentless.
If I have correctly identified the red area, it is misleading. The real fire danger is on the mostly unoccupied hills north and south of the red area. The Snag Canyon (2014) and the Taylor Bridge (2012) fires are examples.
This has been one of the most pleasant first weeks of July, weather-wise, that I can remember. The cool, dry, breezy airmass that has held sway around Bellingham has been just delightful! The breeze pushed the little fireworks smoke that was generated during last night’s festivities out of the area by about 2AM.
ReplyDeleteIt’s not often that the weather is appropriate for having the windows open during July afternoons around these parts like it once was during bygone decades.
After living here in Whatcom County for all of my 65 years, the majority of the months of July have been great for window opening . Bygone decades included.
DeleteThanks for the detailed analysis Cliff. Any thoughts on the Texas flash flood? What preventative measures might help reduce casualties?
ReplyDelete