An Unusual Winter Around the Country

The weather is rarely normal and most years there are some large excursions from  average conditions, but this year is rapidly becoming memorable over the eastern two-thirds of the country and Alaska.

   In much of eastern U.S., winter hasn't really taken hold, with record maximum temperatures occurring on many days, and monthly averages being way above normal.  Here are the anomalies (difference from normal) of the daily-average temperatures across the U.S. for the past 90 and 30 days (see below).  For the last  90 days nearly all locations over and west of the Rockies has been much warmer than normal..with some places of the the northern plains as much as 8F above typical temperatures.  That is really large.  Guess who has been cooler than normal?   The western side of the Pacific Northwest.  We can't win! Cooler than normal temperatures have extended down to coastal CA and the far southwest, chilling those poor golfers and retirees in Palm Springs and Tucson.

 The last 30 days has shown the same pattern,except that the warmth over the upper plains and Rockies have became even more accentuated.

To illustrate, here are the high temperatures across the U.S. yesterday.  60s in NY and New Jersey and 30s into the northern plains.

While most of the continental U.S. is mild and comfortable, western Alaska is having one of their coldest years on record.  My colleague Mark Albright (past WA state climatologist) noted that Fairbanks during January 2012 is on track to be the coldest January in the past 40 years.  King Salmon at the head of Bristol Bay is running -24 degrees F below normal for the month so far with an average temperature of -8 F. The coldest January on record averaged -3 F in 1956 at King Salmon where records go back 68 years to 1955.

80 miles west of Fairbanks at the confluence of the Tanana and Yukon Rivers lies the town of Tanana. After a low of -58 F yesterday followed by a high of -47 F, today is even colder with the latest reading of -60F this morning.  Even more amazing, the Jim River site (180 miles N of Fairbanks) near Prospect Creek reported -77 F this morning. Prospect Creek holds the record for coldest place in the United States at -80 F on 23 January 1971.  Yes, they were within 3F of the COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER OBSERVED OVER THE U.S.

Now what is the cause of this?    A very disturbed atmospheric flow configuration. Here are the anomalies...differences from normal... of the  heights of the 500 hPA pressure surface (about midway up in the atmosphere).  Ridging (higher than normal heights) over much of the U.S. and an anomalous deep trough over Alaska and western Canada.  A very persistent pattern.

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center this usual situation is not over yet.   Here are the predictions for the next 6-10 days.  MUCH warmer than normal conditions over the much of the U.S. (even us) as well as being  considerably drier than normal.  Cooler than normal over Alaska and southern Florida.

The reason...the U.S. ensemble systems are going for a BIG ridge over the western U.S.  Here is the prediction for Friday at 4 PM for 500 hPa heights.  The European Center forecasts (the gold standard) show the same thing...after Thursday the weather over the western U.S. goes dead.

We have a few wet weather systems to get through before then...starting tomorrow morning... but no lowland snow or major storms.  We now have only a month left of western WA winter---after the 3rd week of February the worst is almost always over the lowlands.  The sun becomes stronger, bulbs push up, and the lawns need to be mowed again.  And yes, we can start thinking about those tomato plants.

The Truth About the Pacific "Data Void"

How often do you hear statements like this?

Forecasting skill is bad on the West Coast because there are few weather observations over the Pacific.

We don't know what is coming from the west, so it is impossible to forecast in the Northwest.

In reality these statements are really not true.  We have a huge amount of information over the Pacific and that is probably the main reason why weather forecasts have improved so much over the past 30 years.

So what observing assets do we have out there?  Be ready to be impressed!

We start with weather buoys, as shown by this map (red diamonds indicate stations that have not reported during the past 8 hrs)

Buoys are good, but the problem is that they often are put out of commission with the first big storm.  The big ones are anchored, and a bunch of them just drift around. Here is what one of the fixed buoys looks like (46005, roughly 330 miles west of Aberdeen, WA).

Then there weather observations from commercial ships.  As part of the Volunteer Observing System (VOS), mariners take observations every six hours.  The light blue dots on this chart show where ships were reporting at one particular time:

For some reason there are less ship reports in the middle of night.  And as forecasts get better, the ships avoid the areas we really need data---in the middle and near major storms.  When forecasts were bad, ships would get trapped in dangerous conditions--now they can get out of the way.

   To forecast the atmosphere we need data aloft, since the atmosphere is completely 3D.  A relatively new source of information (few decades) is from commercial planes.   A number of wide-body aircraft provide important weather data (temperature and winds, mainly).  Most of this information is at flight level (typically 30-40 thousand feet), but we also get nice vertical soundings when they land and take off.  Here is an example for three-hours on January 7th of this year.  Lots of data for flights going to Hawaii and to Asia.  But there are holes...big ones.

Well, the sources shown above only represent a few percent of the observations we get.  The bulk are from weather satellites. For example, some satellites can figure out the winds aloft by tracking clouds at various levels.  Or they can sense variations in water vapor and track them.   We get tens of thousands of wind reports per day in this way.  Here is a small sample.   Hundreds of wind reports!

 But it gets better than that.  You remember Star Trek when they orbited a new planet and Mr. Spock scanned the atmosphere and told Captain Kirk about the structure and composition of the atmosphere below?   We can do that, perhaps even better than the folks on the U.S.S. Enterprise.

Getting ready to check the atmosphere of planet Beta-5.

Here is an example of a vertical sounding (temperature and humidity structure with height) at a location over the Pacific from a National Weather Service GOES satellite.

Satellites can do much more. By sending microwave radiation down to the ocean surface and measuring how much is scattered back, some satellite can tell us the wind speed and direction.  Don't believe me?  Check this out!

And there is MUCH, MUCH more.  The bottom line is that meteorologists now have massive amounts of information from around the globe and this information is used to create a 3D initialization for numerical weather prediction models.  We may have some holes and gaps at times, but we are no longer blind over the oceans and polar regions--there are huge amounts of data everywhere.

There is one figure that reveals the impact of all this data on forecasts so beautifully that I have to show you...check the figure below.  This tells you about forecast skill in the northern and southern hemisphere from 1981 to now.  It is about the skill at 500 hPA--around 18,000 ft, a good middle level.  The higher the number (anomaly correlation) the better--100 would be a perfect forecast. You see the forecasts for various forecast ranges (3, 5, 7, and 10 days, varying color).  For each color the top line in for the northern hemisphere and the bottom line for the southern hemisphere.

 It is clear that forecast skill for both hemisphere has greatly improved over time.

But there is something even more profound. Back in the 80s, the northern hemisphere, with more land area and far more observations, had much higher skill.  But that seemed to change in the 90s and the early part of this century.  Why?  The answer is the satellites.   During that period major advances in using satellite data in weather prediction were made.  Since there is about as much satellite data in the southern hemisphere as the northern, why should the northern hemisphere have better forecasts?

I was really stunned when I saw this figure for the first time.  Few graphs illustrate so concisely how far we have come.


With more satellite data sets coming on line during the next decade, and improvements in the technology of data assimilation, expect further improvements in weather forecasts.

The Bermuda Triangle of Northwest Weather

Some things are beyond scientific understanding.  Weather phenomena that can not be explained by forecast models and high-tech observations. Occurrences that are known by local meteorologists but are rarely spoken about in public.  Perhaps the best-known example:  the Napavine Triangle.

Napavine is located  in southwest Washington, between Olympia and Portland--a few miles south of Chehalis (see graphic).  A closer look at the terrain reveals a triangular valley (second map).  A valley with extreme and often bizarre weather.

The nearly perfect triangular shape of the valley is suggestive of supernatural influences.

 Doubtful?  You won't be in a few minutes.  During the snows last week, which low-level (below 500 ft) location got more snow than any other in western Washington?  Napavine with 25.5 inches.  Here is a picture of what things looked like on the ground:

Picture courtesy of http://napavineweather.info/wordpress/

And where was the only place in western Washington to be hit by a tornado last year?
You guessed it. Napavine.  Here is a small sample of the damage:

And in 2007 and 2009 what town, located next to a major river, experienced flooding that closed the nearby Interstate for days?  Yes, you guessed it, Napavine.

And during the extreme heat wave of July 29, 2009 where was the warmest temperatures in western Washington? Locations rising to 110 or 114F.  Yes, the Napavine triangle (see graphic located here for proof).

I could give you a long list of other examples of natural disasters in the scary Napavine triangle, but you get the message. 

And did I tell you about the Bigfoot sightings/evidence in Napavine?  Yes, it is true...here is the proof:  http://bigfootevidence.blogspot.com/2011/09/recent-sighting-report-woman-finds.html

The motto of the town is "Welcome to Napavine, for a day or a lifetime."  You better keep your eye on the sky (and the forest) if you want to do either.

     But as long as I am talking about the bizarre, I just learned of a new weather threat here in the Northwest (kudos to Dr. Brad Smull).  Burial by sand.  I AM NOT KIDDING.  Last week, there were sustained extremely strong winds along the Oregon coast, as a huge pressure gradient was maintained between high pressure over California and the low pressure systems moving eastward near the WA/OR border.   Here are the sustained winds at Newport and North Bend, Oregon (as well as Sea Tac thrown in for comparison) for the past two weeks.  One major wind event after another along the coast!  Gust were much higher.

 In some coastal towns large amounts of sand was blown by this strong winds, burying homes nearly completely.  Consider what happened in Waldport (see map),

or what is left of it.  Look at these amazing pictures by Jason Durrett:

A news video is found here. Here are a few others I found on the web:

Now those houses are basically gone!  Perhaps they will be unburied in a future age, like the buried pyramids of Giza.

PS:  A few of you have complained that I sometimes edit my blogs after I release them.  Folks..this is my style.  I write this blogs fast and then like to go back and perfect them, sometimes based on your comments.  I don't want to have multiple blogs each day, except during big storms.  Others complain that they don't like me talking about education during 1 in a few dozen blogs.  This is my personal blog, please allow me to deal with it in my own way.  There are many other weather blogs, they may be a better fit for some.

UW Admissions and Failing K-12 Education

A week ago there was an article in the Seattle Times describing a large drop in applicants to the UW this year.  Considering that other WA State schools have not seen a similar decline and all state colleges are experiencing essentially the same tuition increases, why are UW applications down? 

Could it be the incessant articles and editorials by the Seattle Times about how the UW is turning down strong applicants to let in more out of state students?  How about this Seattle Times headline last spring:

 "Why straight-A's may not get you into the UW this year"

which suggested that
"High-school seniors with top test scores didn't get in.
Students who got into more prestigious schools were wait-listed at the UW.
Valedictorians with straight-A's were denied admission, while out-of-state students with lower grades were accepted."

The truth is that this story was essentially false--I knew this since I had a long talk with the UW Dean of Admissions about it, was well as being undergrad adviser in my department for over a decade.

The truth is that the UW does not reject strong students:  those with a combination of good grades, high board scores, challenging classes, and good recommendations (honor applicants only).  Straight A students with lower board scores, easy classes, or other negatives may be rejected, but that is to be expected at the State's flagship school and one of the top 20 universities in the world according to some evaluations. In a day of extreme grade inflation, an A average does not mean what it used to be.  The average GPA of incoming UW freshman is A-.

I believe this kind of irresponsible journalism has harmed the UW unnecessarily.

(Parenthetical note:  my mentioning the problems with this ST article on KUOW is what led to me being kicked off that station.  Irony Alert: Kicked off of KUOW Weekday defending the UW on the UW radio station, because I was worried about damage to the UW that actually occurred)

Another thing the ST got wrong was the quality of the out-of-state students:  they are generally HIGHER than in-state applicants.  Better grades and board scores, for example. (Let me make it clear, many WA State students are very strong).

Now the controversial part of this blog!  Is is REALLY a bad thing if we let in more out of state students?   

Yes, they help pay the bills by helping support in-state students.  In other words, the UW can admit more in-state students if more out-of-state students are admitted.

Let me be frank, there are quite a few UW students who don't belong here.  Whose seats would be better filled with out-of-state students.  It is distressing to admit, that a good number of UW freshmen (perhaps the lower 10-15%) do not have college-level skills.   They can't do basic algebra or middle school math (many can't even do long division or fractions).  Their spelling and writing are atrocious--unable to write coherent sentences. Their student habits are deficient, including poor attendance and note taking.  They have poor research skills and have difficulty working independently.  Some have poor attitudes and clearly would rather be some place else.

Many of them have little hope of success at the UW and a significant number drop out, or shuffle their way through their college career with marginal grades and no direction.  They leave the UW little better for the experience.   For many, the problems are not of their making:  their preparation in our state's K-12 system was so poor that they had little chance.  And the problems of poor K-12 preparation is particularly acute in technological subjects that require strong math and science skills.  Several times I have had a tearful undergraduate in my room, who desperately wanted to be a meteorologist, but had to give up their dream because their math preparation in K-12 was so poor that they could not make it up in a reasonable time.

So I ask, why not accept the creme-of-the-crop of out of state students to replace the lowest tier of UW applicants?   Many will develop a liking for our state and decide to stay here, thus enriching our state's employment pool. 

Outrageous you say?  Well folks, our country is doing just this in a major way. U.S. K-12 education is weak, particularly in math and science.   Ever check out the student demographics in engineering and technical subjects in our colleges and universities?  Or the ranks of the faculty in technical areas? They are filled with the foreign born.  Why? Our country is incapable of training enough technically skilled young people to keep our 21st century nation running, so we DEPEND on foreign imports.  Without them our society would fall into 3rd world technological status.   When I go to meetings on meteorological data assimilation, probably the most mathematically intense subject in my field, I muse that they might as well have the presentations in Chinese, there are so few native Americans in the room.   Check the faculty of the UW Statistics department--how many were born in the U.S.?  Not many.  The problem is the the U.S. can't keep this approach going indefinitely:  as China and India develop, their students will not want to come here anymore.  And then we will be in real trouble! We need to be insure our own students get the best education and are capable of filling our needs for a technically trained work force.

What is happening to WA State and U.S. student is really a tragedy for them and our society. We need to turn around U.S. K-12 education, particularly in mathematics and science.  And it is quite possible to do so, perhaps even spending less money than we do now.  Groups like the Gates Foundation, League of Education Voters, and the Broad Foundation have good intentions but they are pushing ineffective, unproven and faddish approaches such as charter schools, Teach for America, micromanaging teachers, and fixation on assessments, and they don't base their approaches on empirically proven methodologies.  They are part of the problem, not the solution.

In a future blog I provide some concrete suggestions of how we can improve our state's K-12 educational system.  Some points I will make:

1.  We need strong curricula that include all important material.  Curricula must insure students have the skills and knowledge to succeed in college, if that is what they want to do.
2.  We need to reduce use of obscenely expensive textbooks and materials.
3.   We need to insure teachers know the subjects they teach and then get out of their way.
4.  We need to spend less on assessments.
5.  We need not waste 300 million dollars on new, unproven Common Core Standards.
6.  Colleges of education are generally failing institutions that need to be restructured with more training on subject matter and how to teach effectively, and less social engineering.
7.  Decisions on curricula and teaching approaches must be based on robust research using modern statistical techniques, something nearly absent in the U.S. educational community.

...and more.

Southeast Olympic Snowstorm

It is snowing right now at fairly low elevations to the southeast of the Olympics--something that happens a few times every winter.    For example, here is an image from Dale Ireland's home above Hood Canal

At the same time it is raining and in the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of the rest of the area.  How can this be?  The National Weather Service has been spotlighting this possibility for a while and the local high resolution models were going for this snow for days (see forecast from yesterday below-24h snowfall ending 4 PM) for forecast initialized 4 PM yesterday.

The key to this is southeasterly flow and the cooling influence of melting.  A strong low is approaching the coast (see graphic) and that has forced strong southeasterly flow over

western Washington.  To prove this, here are the profiler winds above Seattle for the past day (see graphic).  Strong SE flow through depth (latest observations on the left).

 When strong flow approaches the Olympics it is forced to rise, producing enhanced precipitation rates.  To see this, here is the latest Camano Island radar image (it can't see southern side of the Olympics well, but you get the idea).  You can see the impact of the Olympics, with heavier precip on the eastern side of the barrier.

Our precipitation aloft in winter is nearly always in the form of snow, as the snow falls into an initially warmer layer below (a layer above freezing) melting occurs.  Melting causes cooling.  That allows the snow level to move downward and potentially to the surface.

So southeasterly flow causes upslope on the mountains, which causes a heavier precipitation rate, which causes more melting and cooling, which results in the snow level coming down to the surface.   This effect can also happen in other areas of enhanced precipitation, such as the Puget Sound convergence zone.


You pull the tail of a tiger and it is going to snap at you!  On Tuesday, my blog noted that a ST writer was making fun of forecasters for changing their predictions in time. And on Wednesday, I complained about the big headline of MEGASTORM in the ST that day, when the latest forecasts were only for 3-6 inches over Seattle. 

Well, the ST began with reporter Nick Provenza in an article "Forecasts Change, Right?  Professor Mass"  in which he pointed at my earlier speculation that a heavy snow was possible (my forecast subsequently changed with new model output).  Sort of like suggesting that I was the meteorological version of Newt Gingrich, calling for moral purity while he was playing around with multiple women.  But I only gave one forecast at a time!  Monographical prediction.

And today they brought out the heavy artillery:  ST humorist Ron Judd, who suggested an "about-face forecasting retreat on Tuesday."   As if holding to a failing forecast is the route to victory! 

Now a bit of good-natured ribbing is fine, but this correspondence shows that many, including some ST folks, don't appreciate the essential nature of forecasting, and particularly that forecasts change in time, and generally improve as you get closer.  My profession needs to find a way to communicate the evolving forecast without losing the confidence of the media and the public.  Polls change in time and people don't seem to get upset and make fun of pollsters.  We need the same for meteorologists!

By the way, there is a pretty good story today in the ST on the ice-storm forecast by reporters who took the time to understand the problem.

Finally, a fun parody of the local snowstorm coverage is now available:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHqcf0jcPRk