Saturday, October 30, 2010

Less Flooding Risks

The trend of the computer models is to produce less rain over the Olympics and North Cascades--mainly due to the fact that the band of strong, moist flow will be moving through the area more quickly than forecast a few days ago. Here is the latest computer model forecast (24h precipitation ending 5 AM on Tuesday)--2 to 5 inches over the Olympics. This is enough to flood the Skokomish, and perhaps a few other river, but not the serious threat of earlier runs. The north Cascades also is getting less of a hit, so the Skagit and Stillaguamish will probably remain in their banks.


The advertised storm in the Pacific has developed rapidly...you can see from the satellite picture below that is huge an intense. The center of the low is in the middle of the swirling clouds. The times the clouds circle around the low, the deeper the storm in general. Still expecting 40-50 ft waves in the Gulf of Alaska from this monster.


Here is the latest Pacific analysis for nearly the same time. 939 mb low...that is really deep.

Sunday should actually be a pretty good day around here, especially after the current front moves by. You can see both this front and the relatively cloud-free area just offshore in the above satellite picture.

2 comments:

smokejumper said...

You did mention months ago that La Nina conditions tend to provide a less likely threat of express events. This could be a good storm to provide an example why that is usually the case.

TomW said...

Are there any tools or maps that actually show the lows and highs in 3D?