October 06, 2010

Heavy Weather Ahead

The weather has turned very nice lately (see plot of temperatures versus normal max and mins), with cool, crispy mornings and sunny, warm afternoons. Some trees have started to turn colors and leaves are already wafting to earth. Just perfect. But more active weather is on the way...but not before our pleasant period continues a while longer.

Thursday will be a repeat of today, but later on Friday a strong system will approach and another will head our way on Sunday. Here is the predicted surface chart for 11 PM on Friday--a strong low west of N. Vancouver Island and LOTS of pressure gradient...and associated strong winds over the offshore waters. As the low moves inland you can expect strong winds to develop in the Strait of Georgia as well.

Here is the forecast sustained wind field at 8 PM (the gusts will be far higher). Lots of sustained 35 knot winds, with gusts probably reaching 40-45 kts.

Associated with the low and strong winds will be a strong current of moisture and fairly heavy rains will fall over the Olympics and mountains of Vancouver Island Friday night (2-5 inches!) and moving into the Cascades on Saturday ...see graphic below of 24-h precipitation ending 5 PM on Saturday.

Don't water your grass. Hiking in the Cascades on Saturday--particularly in the morning-- will require Gortex.

And another low pressure system...with landfall somewhat farther north...will occur on Sunday, bringing more rain to the area. But don't worry, a stretch of sunny, warm weather beckons next week.


  1. Crap... I'm flying home from Taipei, Taiwan, tomorrow night and will arrive in Seattle at around 7 pm local time. It looks like I'll get to fly through a lot of what's coming our way, as the flight path goes up and over, touching the farthest-south Aleutian Islands and then the southern coast of Alaska before paralleling the coast of Canada all the way to SEA-TAC.

    Well, at least I know what to expect and I'm not afraid of turbulence. Planes are engineered to take it... and EVA Airways flies nice new Boeings...

  2. Ahhhhhhhhh....could this just be a taste of things to come this winter? Go figure...our furnace is bugging out...need to get it looked at! And our wood stove wont be installed until later this month. Why do things always work out that way?

  3. "But don't worry, a stretch of sunny, warm weather beckons next week."

    I think this should be the tag line for every post. It gives one that warm, fuzzy feeling. Every other week, I suppose the tag line should be "And expect lots of fresh powder snow in the mountains this weekend" (for the skiers of course). :)

  4. Just saw the "Hydrologic Outlook" on NOAA's website... Glad I got my gutters all cleaned out. Ready to go for the storm! And actually looking forward to it...

  5. Will there be anywhere in the state with sunny weather? I want to go mountain biking one last time.

  6. Does this mean I can finish staining my fence next week? 60 ft to go...

  7. So what happened to the big wind last night? It was a giant yawn flying in over the Olympic peninsula... not a single bump... and not raining or windy when we touched down. I'm not sorry, but I'm wondering what shifted to make your forecast so far off?


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