Sunday, December 19, 2010
The Easterly Windstorm Forecast and a Clarification
First, some of you noted that you had strong winds and feel the NWS didn't give you warning. I should note that next generation model resolution--which is not available generally--might have helped. Here is output from the new 1.3 km resolution WRF model at the UW and you can compare to the 4-km, which has been around awhile. The 1.3 km is far better, with stronger winds and even got the winds hitting Bainbridge island. The NWS uses a 12km model that does not have much of Puget Sound--only at 1.3 km can we do a reasonable job. They do a good job with tools they have.
Events such as Saturday's are extremely complex, with large gradients in wind speed.
Finally, a personal note based on a few complains.
This blog IS NOT a forecast service.
I will not be blogging about every event, even major ones.
It will NOT be available all the time.
You should NOT depend on it for warnings about serious weather events.
The National Weather Service provides 24-7 service and does a very good job in general.
My goal for this blog is not to provide continuous forecasts and warnings, but to provide explanations for major weather features and as scientific outreach to the community. It is about science education. And once in while I will talk about my other interests, such as math education.
Posted by Cliff Mass at 3:52 PM