Super Inversion and Record Heat

 The temperature inversion today over Seattle is one of the strongest I have ever seen.

As a reminder, an inversion is when temperature increases with height, in contrast to the normal decrease with height.  

The conditions at SeaTac Airport this morning are shown below.

42°F at the surface and 61°F at 2100 feet.    

19°F warmer.    Just amazing.

Some of the local temperature contrasts this morning were stunning, with cold air at lower elevations, and MUCH warmer temperatures on hills or downwind of hills.

To illustrate, consider the temperatures this morning near Carnation, Washington.  A range from 60 to 39F over a few miles.  60 to 42°F over a short walk.

A super-inversion was also observed on the coast at Forks (see below, temperatures in °C and height in pressure, 700 hPa is about 10,000 ft)

The UW high-resolution weather prediction for this morning had the general pattern right, with the warm temperatures associated with easterly (from the east) winds down the western slopes of local terrain.  

But it failed to get the lowest temperatures correct. Current modeling systems have too much vertical mixing and thus fail to maintain the low temperatures at the bottom of inversions.  We are working on this.

The record high for today at SeaTac is 64F (see below).   There is a good chance we will tie or beat it.

What weather pattern is producing such an extreme inversion?  As shown by the 500 hPa heights (pressure around 18,000 ft), there was a huge ridge of high pressure over the western US.  Such high pressure is associated with great warmth aloft and a lack of serious clouds.

As the sun heats the surface, it causes vertical mixing, the warm air will be brought down to the surface, and daily record high temperatures for the date are quite possible.

 Here are the predicted temperatures at 2 PM this afternoon.  Western Washington will be torrid, especially on the slopes..   Several stations will climb into the low to mid-60s today in western Washington.  Perfect for a walk, bike ride, or raking up leaves.  Much cooler in eastern Washington.  

I am planning on a long run this afternoon.😀

Deaths from Extreme Weather are Rapidly Declining

There is a lot of talk about extreme weather these days, with many climate activists and media suggesting that deaths and injuries from extreme weather are increasing due to human-caused global warming.

However, the truth is very different:

Deaths from extreme weather are actually decreasing rapidly for several reasons.

You read that correctly:  declining. 

To illustrate, the figure below shows the number of global deaths from floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, and extreme temperatures from the 1920s to 2021, based on a respected international database. 

Huge declines in deaths.  And this is not including the fact that the population has increased immensely during the past century.   

Thus, personal risk from extreme weather is going down even faster!.

Want a more specific example? 

In 1970, the Bhola Cyclone (hurricane) hit India/Bangladesh, resulting in about 500,000 deaths.  Forecasts were poor, warning systems were poor, and infrastructure was inadequate.  

Path and satellite image of the 1970 Bhola cyclone

In contrast, in 2020, a MUCH stronger hurricane, Super Cyclone Amphan, followed an almost identical path.  

2020 Cyclone Amphan

The death toll?  133.  You read that right. 133.   

Why?  Forecasts were much better, warnings were improved, and there is far more robust infrastructure.  

During the past few decades, the Earth has warmed by approximately 2°F, with human emissions of greenhouse gases being the primary cause.

Yet, deaths from severe weather are WAY down.  How can this be?

Some reasons include:

(1) Weather forecasts are HUGELY better for all types of extreme weather compared to 40 years ago.

    This allows better warning and preparation for extreme weather events.

Hurricane tracks are usually predicted with great accuracy.

(2) The ability to communicate threats is WAY better than 40 years ago, with people in even poor countries possessing smartphones that provide updated warnings.

(3)  All nations are richer and developed than 40 years ago, with major investments making infrastructure and homes more robust for extreme weather events.

(4)  Global warming does not increase the threat of all types of extreme weather.  

In fact, global warming decreases some threats.

Shocking right?  You don't read that very often in the Seattle Times and other mainstream media. Global warming can decrease deaths from some extreme weather.

But it is true.  Let me give you an example:  extreme temperatures.

Rising temperatures REDUCE deaths because the biggest temperature threat for most people is COLD rather than heat. 

It is not even close.  As shown below, cold waves kill MANY more people than heat waves, by a factor of 5-10 to one.

There are several articles in the peer-reviewed literature that explicitly state this:  warming temperatures will reduce extreme temperature deaths.

Hurricanes?   The ability to forecast their track has become much, much better.  At the same time, the frequency of major hurricanes has been stable as the Earth has warmed considerably during the past few decades.

Same thing with the number of landfalling storms.  No upward trends as the planet warms.

Even with an immense increase in population in the coastal zone, the number of hurricane deaths from Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms is nearly constant (see below).  Thus, personal risk is immensely LESS.

I could discuss other forms of extreme weather, but the conclusions are the same:

Your personal risk from virtually any type of extreme weather is now much, much smaller than it has been historically.

We live with LESS risk of being killed or injured by extreme weather today, even as the planet slowly warms.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Sunday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions and talk in detail about the outlook for the coming winter

The Thunderbird Returns to the Northwest: Substantial Precipitation Ahead

 There are many Native American stories about the origin of Northwest storms and rain, with my favorite being about the Thunderbird, a huge avian living in a cave of the Olympics.  When it left its high abode to hunt for its favorite prey (the Killer Whale), storms, wind, and even lightning would occur.

If there was ever a month for Thunderbird flights, it would have to be November.

A tenth of an inch represents a decent wetting, and the frequency of that amount at Seattle Tacoma Airport is shown below.  There is a clear peak:  in mid-November!   By December, there is already a bit of drying!

With this climatology in mind, let's look at the latest forecast for accumulating precipitation.

With a weather system coming in tonight and tomorrow, the total through Thursday morning is substantial, particularly on the Olympics and the coastal mountains.  

By Friday morning, the Cascades will get to enjoy the wet fun with 2-3 inches of rain.  Note the profound rain shadow over the San Juans in the lee of the Olympics.

The next week will bring much more rain, with the totals through Friday morning, 14 November, getting to 4-5 inches in the mountains.

And far more, by Tuesday, Nov. 18th.   The Thunderbird will be busy.  This is enough to result in localized river flooding and substantial progress in filling local reservoirs.

An interesting aspect of the next two weeks will be the absence of major landfalling storms, with persistent low pressure staying offshore.

To illustrate, below is the sea level pressure forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.  Huge low offshore.

Five days from now, another low will be offshore. No major power outages to be expected, with this pattern.

No "bomb cyclone" action in our nearshore waters like last year.  At least not yet.

A relief for many.

Washington is the UFO Capital of the U.S. Is it Our Weather?

 A series of reports have come out recently demonstrating that Washington State is NUMBER ONE in the number of reports per person of UFOs (Unidentified Flying Objects).

Below is the data.  During the past year, there was one sighting for every 1021 people in Washington. 

In contrast, in Louisiana UFOs are observed less than a third as often, something perhaps explained by the greater interest in Mardi Gras, alligators, and spicy gumbo.

Certain Washington (and Oregon) locations are favored for extraterritorial visitation, particularly east of the Cascade Crest and over the Olympics (see below, darker green indicates more events), 

There are three reasons why Washington State could have more UFO sighting reports:

 (1)  UFOs really are more frequent here. 

     Perhaps extraterrestrials like our salmon or are interested in Boeing. Perhaps they think Washingtonians are particularly interesting.   I would doubt it.

  (2) Washington State has a mental health issue.  

 Some political commentators might agree with this.  Perhaps folks in this state are so worried about the future of the world and the current administration that they yearn for intergalactic intervention.

(3) Our meteorology often produces features in the sky that look like UFOs.  

This is the one I would put my money on. 

It all started here.

Did you know that the UFO craze started HERE in 1947, when a pilot of a small plane  (Kennith Arnold), flying between Chehalis and Yakima, spotted a group of "saucer-like" objects over Mount Rainier?

 

A faculty member in my department analyzed the situation and demonstrated that Arnold actually saw lenticular clouds forced by Mount Rainier.

Such clouds form when relatively moist air is forced over a mountain barrier and then oscillates up and down, with upward motion producing the lens-shaped cloud (see schematic below).

As an aside, during a presidential debate on October 20, 2017, presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich admitted to seeing a UFO while staying at actress Shirley Maclaine's home near....... Mount Rainier.

Dennis Kuckinch

The Pacific Northwest, and particularly Washington State, is probably the best place in the US to see lenticular/mountain wave clouds.  

You can see them here on many, many days--either by viewing the sky or on satellite imagery.   

Why so frequent here?

We have big mountain barriers of sufficient height.

We have strong winds approaching the mountains.

We have air that is sufficiently moist to produce clouds.

Cloud like this:

Or this

Or this

So consider the meteorological explanation of our first rank in UFO sightings.

Or if you prefer: