Perhaps the World's Biggest Ice Cube will Be Installed in a Seattle Park. How Fast Will It Melt?

Melting ice is a fundamental part of meteorology, and particularly the physics of clouds.  So when I got a call last week about a huge ice cube to be placed in a Seattle park, I was more than a little intrigued.

To be more specific, on September 9th a 9-10 TON ice cube, with 80 inch (6.7 ft) sides, is going to be placed in Occidental Park in downtown Seattle.  The Seattle architecture firm Olson Kundig (OK) is behind this unique appearance, with the ice cube being submitted as part of the Seattle Design Festival. Their ice cube web page is here.  A very dynamic installation that will change in time, and eventually disappear.

The dramatic rendering of the OK ice cube shown above is a bit too large.  A  more realistic view would be more like this:

Clay Anderson of Olson Kundig wanted to get my "professional" estimate of how long it would take for the cube to melt out.   Such as estimate has to deal with a number of variables, such as:

1.  Radiative warming from the sun, which can vary substantially depending on cloud cover.
2. Condensation on the surface, which depends on the humidity of the air, the air temperature, wind speed, and more. (when water vapor condenses, latent heat is released)
3.  Conduction of heat to the surface, which depends on the temperature of the air and wind speed.
4.   Conduction of heat from the ground into the cube.
5.  Conduction of heat into the interior of the cube.

....and several other factors.  Not a trivial calculation.

So let's have some fun with this....start a little contest.

Leave your estimate of the melt-out date/time in the comment section of this blog, and who ever wins will get a prize:  either a copy of my book or a custom weather forecast by yours truly--your choice.

To get you into the mood, here is a dreamy video of an ice cube melting:



Good luck.

You know what big ice cubes are good for...

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Announcement: My Climate Surprise Talk on September 28.

During the evening of September 28, I will be giving a talk in Seattle at UW's Kane Hall on Climate Surprise: Unexpected Impacts of Global Warming on the Pacific Northwest.   You think global warming will simply bring warmer temperatures, drought,  less snow, and more storms?  Think again. The latest climate model simulations provide a far more nuanced prediction of what will happen here, with some of the results quite surprising.   This talk is sponsored by CarbonWa and the Audubon Society To find out more or to secure tickets, please go here.