Renewable Energy and the Period of Lowest Electricity Demand of the Year

We are now in the time of year with the lowest electricity demand in the Pacific Northwest, driven by our meteorology (see below).

The major peak occurs in winter, when electricity is needed to heat homes and buildings.  There is a minor peak in mid-summer, driven by air conditioner use.

With mild temperatures over the region, the demand for electricity is at a minimum during early to mid-September.

Everyone wants to maximize the use of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, so how well do they match the demand noted above?

To help answer this question, below is a plot of wind power generation for the Northwest (solar is at the noise level).

A maximum in spring and a minimum in August.   This makes sense meteorologically since most of our wind turbines are east of the Cascades, mainly on the lower slopes (e.g., Ellensburg area) or downwind of the Columbia Gorge.

Why this annual variation?   

The difference in pressure across the Cascades, which drives the westerly winds, is largest in spring because the temperature difference across the Cascades is largest then, with eastern WA/Oregin heating up more rapidly than coastal areas.  Differences in temperature drive differences in pressure, which drive the winds that produce power.

So what about the situation this year?   

To find out, I downloaded the Bonaville Power Administration (BPA) numbers for total electrical demand (load, blue) and the total from wind and solar generation (red).  The graphics are below.

Renewable energy (mainly wind) generally has a huge amount of day-to-day variability, often declining to near zero and rarely getting to 50% of the load.  Sometimes, it remains nearly zero for weeks, as in last January.  

How do we make up the difference between renewables and the demand?  Mainly hydropower, which our region is blessed with.

The detailed plot for the last week illustrated the collapse of renewables (again mainly wind)---even below our very limited nuclear power (purple line).  Demand (red line) varies substantially over the day, but hydro is sufficiently flexible to provide the necessary power throughout the day.

One thing is very, very clear.  If we want to have the energy needed for growth, electric cars. and server farms, wind energy and solar are inadequate to be the solution for the Northwest.   We need nuclear power.

Washington State Agricuture is Doing Well in 2026

For much of this year, some in the media and online have warned about drought and heat, predicting serious negative consequences for Washington State agriculture.     

The Drought Monitor website, often quoted in the press, has drought, some extreme, over eastern Washington.  The site warns of substantial negative impacts!

The headlines in many outlets have been apocalyptic; here are just a few:

The truth is very different from these scary predictions.  

There was sufficient water for agriculture this year.   

Harvests are near normal and in some cases above normal.

Let me prove this to you.

Washington wheat yields in 2026 will be 20% ABOVE normal.  

The barley harvest?   97% of normal this year!

The very important apple crop?  Very good news!

It is estimated to be down only 2% from last year's record-breaking harvest (see below), and forecasts call for exceptional quality.  I look forward to the crunch of a good apple!

Cherries?

They suffered a bit from a spring cold wave, resulting in a decline of around 15% in volume.  However, the industry reports that fruit quality, size, and flavor have remained exceptional throughout the season, and prices have remained favorable for the growers.

I would go on, but you get the message: this year has been a very decent year for Washington State agriculture. The scary claims of major drought, wildfire, lack of snowpack, and global warming impacts were clearly not true.

One reason eastern Washington agriculture did so well was that there was sufficient water.

The water levels behind the Columbia's Grand Coulee Dam this year (blue line) were close to normal (red line).

Elevation Level Behind the Grand Coulee Dam

The Yakima Reservoir started well above normal in spring and ended ABOVE last year and modestly below normal.   Sufficient water for normal agricultural operations in the Yakima Valley.

Heavy rains and relatively cool temperatures of the past two weeks have caused surface soils and fuel moisture levels to increase greatly over the lowlands of eastern Washington. (See example below; the thick red line is observed, the gray area is the normal range.)

The bottom line is that Washington State agriculture is in very good shape this year, with the Chicken Little predictions proving to be false.