The BLOB is Dying

 I have gotten several worried emails from readers this week, asking about the health of the BLOB--an area of warmer-than-normal water off our coast.

Unfortunately, I have some sad news: the BLOB is weakening rapidly.  It may not have long to live.

Let's go back a month, to September 17.  

The map below shows the difference in the sea surface temperature from normal.    A big area of warmer-than-normal temperatures offshore of the West Coast.

The BLOB LIVES.

One month later (yesterday), the story is very different, with a very weakened BLOB.  Hardly any reds just offshore and even some blues---which indicated cooler than normal temperatures.

Below is the change in sea surface temperature for the past week, with blues indicating substantial cooling.    The BLOB's days are numbered.

The cause of this change is the rapid increase in storms over the Northwest Pacific.  Storms that mix colder water from below to the surface.

Storms like the one over the Gulf of Alaska as I write this (see below).

A storm that will rev up and produce strong winds (green and blue colors) over the Pacific (see wind gust forecast tomorrow around 5 PM).  Winds that will mix the upper ocean and produce rapid surface cooling.

At this point in time, with a rapidly weakening blob, there is little reason to expect warmer-than-normal waters to our west at the start of winter.

What a Change A Week Makes

A week ago, there was no snow on the mountains and major smoke from wildfires on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.

Monday morning, lots of snow in the mountains and no apparent smoke.

A week ago, several surface monitors indicated poor quality with very bad air near Wenatchee.

Monday morning, nearly all sensors showed good air quality (green).

A week ago, the Snoqualmie River (near Carnation) was at record low levels for the date.  This is no longer true, and soon the river will rise to ABOVE normal levels.

Temperatures that were consistently rising above average highs are now consistently below normal highs, as illustrated by a plot of high and low temperatures at SeaTac airport.

A major weather shift since last week.  

And after a few dry days, expect rain to return Friday and  into the weekend (see total through Monday morning below).   

Moderate to heavy rain on the western sides of regional mountains and a nice rainshadow from Seattle northward over the lowlands.  Enjoy.