The "Super" El Nino Will Weaken Super Fast

There is a lot of folk wisdom about the current El Nino situation.

The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

Fast ripe, fast rotten.

Up like a rocket, down like a stick.

The higher you climb, the harder you fall.

The media, such as the Seattle Times, have been breathlessly describing the currently developing El Nino, with many applying the unscientific "super" prefix.   Some have suggested devastating impacts (see below).

The latest forecasts paint a different picture.  

El Nino will develop rapidly this summer/fall but will weaken quickly during the winter.

This rapid decline is important, since the winter is the period with the greatest impact of El Nino on the meteorology of the Northwest.

Let me demonstrate this to you.

The latest forecast of the NOAA CFS model (below) predicts a peak warming of the tropical Pacific in October-November to around 2 °C (major El Nino), followed by a rapid cooling to 1°F (moderate El Nino) by January-February.

Looking at a collection of many forecast models (below) provides a similar picture:  a substantial weakening of El Nino during the winter.

The bottom line of these forecasts is that some of the over-the-top predictions by the media and others regarding a super El Nino causing severe weather impacts may be a bit over the top.

Finally, looking at the current short-period forecasts, it appears that we have a wet/cooler than normal period ahead, as shown by the NOAA predictions below.

The latest UW forecast model predictions for precipitation totals through Sunday morning (below indicate a nice wetting across Washington State.  A lot more precipitation is predicted during the next 10 days.

Short Warm Period Followed by Cool Wet Weather

We are about to warm up into the mid-80s this week in the west and 90s in eastern Washington, followed by a profound cool-down and plenty of precipitation.

Consider the latest predictions for temperature in Seattle and the Tri-Cities below.

Temperatures peak on Wednesday, before dropping off the proverbial cliff by the end of the week. 

Classic for our region, where cool ocean air is always close by.

You can see the predicted regional temperature evolution spatially below.

The forecast high temperatures for today are quite moderate over western Washington (highs in the 70s), while warmer temperatures are found in the Columbia Basin.

But by Tuesday (at 5 PM), the reds (80s) have spread into western Washington.   Still cool along the coast and over NW Washington.

But by Thursday, a radical cooling has occurred in the west, with temperatures only getting into the 60s over the lowlands.  Eastern Washington has also cooled.

The cause of this transition?   The approach of a strong upper level tough of low pressure (see forecast at 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) below.   Wow.

Are you planning a hike after Thursday?   Bring some rain gear.

To illustrate our soggy future, below are the predicted precipitation totals through Sunday morning.  Yikes.  Several inches in the mountains.  Even eastern Washington gets wet!

The NOAA Extended (6-10 day forecast) is wetter than normal over our region (see below)

The timing of this precipitation, right before our dry season, is superb for providing soil moisture, filling reservoirs, and reducing wildfire threat.