After a short rainy interlude today and early Thursday, high pressure will build inland on Friday morning with offshore flow, sunny skies, and warm air over us. The results will be the warmest temperatures this year,with much of western Washington soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Here is the latest UW WRF forecast for 5 PM on Friday. Amazing...much of western Washington away from coast is in the 70s.
The National Weather Service and the Weather Channel are playing it more conservatively, with temps in the mid-60s.
The National Weather Service has a short-range ensemble forecast system in which many models are run. Here is the forecast "plume" for Sea-Tac airport, showing the temperature predictions from these varied solutions. Many reach the upper 60s.
Saturday will bring serious rain as an atmospheric river plows into the coast....here is the 24-h precipitation ending 5 AM on Sunday. Several inches in the mountains and even eastern Washington getting some rain.
So if you want to go hiking, take Friday off...it will be amazing in the Cascades and Olympics.
Rangering in the Hoh will be easy if the QPF holds out. I have been in the business for twenty some years and this is the first time I've been able to say, "Mount Olympus is in late summer climbing condition." "Good Luck"
ReplyDeleteHey Cliff, I reached out to a few days back. Sorry if I got your name wrong in that post, is was a late night following a long day. I would love to get a brief interview with you if you are interested. The the interview will be for TheInertia.com. I really want to discuss the warm dry winter in the PNW and relate it to the mid winter closing of Mt. Baker and the postponing/canceling of the LBS. Let me know if you are interested and what your availability is for an interview. Thanks, I really appreciate it.
ReplyDelete-JP-
Great forecast, Cliff. You gals and guys nailed it... Indeed. What a gorgeous Thursday. And Friday shouldn't be much worse.
ReplyDelete-kudos
First comment here; Cliff this was intended to be a question i asked you in person;, its largely about the incorrect forecasts.... On Wed you said today Friday would be warm and sunny. Its not. Not at 11am in Seattle, nor by looking at traffic cams, up at Snoq Pass. Now while thursday was great, that was not the day you told us to take off work.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming much of this comes from incorrect language you and your brethren use in communication this. Your "friday will be great" implies this will all day (even though you said by 5, the suggestion the mtns are good to hike in means certainly before 5 pm it will be nice (and its not))
My gut guess on 2 day accuracy from your profession is about "50/50" (?)...where the test is "give me a prediction of its its ok for some outdoor activity (be it garden party, or hiking, or skiing). I don't have any theoretical need for weather; rather have a personal need to know if its suitable to be outside.
since your prediction is so bold, i feel i need to comment. Maybe one answer is "even with conviction in the forecast, 2 days out we're never always right"...which then might lead to perhaps instead saying, "man, i don't know...but Thurs or Friday should be pretty great at times"
Funny thing though, somehow we've gotten mega warm today but yet these high level clouds and not the clear skies are present...seems odd you think?
ReplyDeleteOops! Friday's high here was lower than Thursday's.
ReplyDeleteHey Cliff,
ReplyDeleteJust looking at the radar on Saturday around 5:30pm.
Odd the way the band of rain bends around the PS.
What's that all about?