February 04, 2017

Snow Threat Increases

Will Have an Update at 8 AM Sunday

The new European Model forecast shows more snow in our future (see below)--nearly a foot in the south Sound to a half-foot around Everett between now and Monday afternoon.  If true, this would be the biggest snowfall in several years for our area.


But as I say so many times you must be sick of it, the above is only one forecast and there is still some uncertainty in the forecast.   To get a handle on that uncertainty, here is the last GEFS ensemble snow forecasts (21 model forecasts in all) for Seattle.  A substantial range (1-10 inches), with the mean of the ensemble around 4-5 inches.  EVERY member has snow.  That gets my attention.

Folks...this is rapidly getting more serious as the models are indicating a higher probability of more snow.  The serious accumulations will begin after dinnertime on Sunday.

7 comments:

  1. What is Portlands forcasted look like?

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  2. I really appreciate access to the GFS model runs on the UW atmospheric sciences website.

    Is it possible for the public to get access to the European ECMWF models as well?

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  3. I'm not sure I can tell the difference between 2" of snow and 23" of snow on that color scale!

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  4. If this really comes, it could be a wet, heavy snow and that can mean a lot of damage. I can remember some of these 34 degree snows collapsing roofs. Hang on, we will see if this amounts to anything.

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  5. Hello How does the dew point have an affect as to whether or not it'll be snow or rain. JB.

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  6. Sticking to the ground in Crown Hill. Roads and sidewalks still bare and wet. Still borderline on temps, very wet snow.

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Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

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