What is so special about 60F? Perhaps because with some sun, this temperature is warm enough that one is comfortable outside without a sweater or jacket. Whatever the reason, after a cold late winter and spring, Seattle-Tacoma Airport has yet to hit 60F. In fact, we are getting close to a record--the latest into the spring that Seattle has hit 60F. Not the kind of record one likes to break.
When was the latest time Seattle hit 60F? As shown below, early November, 5 months ago.
So when will we reach 60F? Weather.com is suggesting we will just make it on Tuesday:
The ultra-high resolution (1.3 km) UW WRF model is going for 60-64F (medium red color) over much of Puget Sound at 5 PM on Tuesday:
As I have noted many times, it is important to forecast probabilistically using an ensemble of many forecasts, since all weather predictions have uncertainty. The fabled European Center ensemble forecasting system suggests that average of the ensemble members (black line) just reaches 60F on Tuesday, with a range of temperatures from 56 to 64. Roughly a 50% chance of reaching 60F that day.
How about the National Weather Service Short Range Ensemble Forecasting System (SREF)? Barely reaches 60F on Tuesday, with a much better change on Wednesday.
So we have a real shot at it on Tuesday....keep your fingers crossed. If we miss 60F on Tuesday we have a chance of beating the big record with 60F being reached after April 11th.
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My money is on not hitting 60 here in the south Sound this week.
ReplyDeleteSunday in the Skagit Valley, fields of daffodils, tulips still hiding. 60 degree days will switch on the color.
ReplyDeleteThe first 60 degree day of the year for Western Washington has already been reached. In Olympia, at KOLM, the temperature reached 60 degrees on April 1; not sure if it reached 60 degrees earlier in other parts of Western Washington. Maybe you meant the first 60 degree day of the year for SEATAC or Seattle?
ReplyDeleteHow will we know if we got there today or not? It seems that some weather stations (for example Renton) may have passed the 60-degree mark, but it appears the SeaTac station may not have. Can you give us an update later today (Tuesday the 4th)?
ReplyDeleteOn February 15, BLI measured 61F. My PWS, located about 1.5 miles southeast, reached 60F. Today, my PWS measured 60F for the first time since, though BLI appears to have only reached 58F.
ReplyDeleteDon't know if this is hotter than 60 degrees,
ReplyDeletebut as Cliff mentioned a bill is in motion
to improve weather forecasts
and is hitting the president's desk.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CONGRESS_WEATHER_SERVICE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-04-04-18-54-45