Monday, July 8, 2019

Winter in July

A look at the latest enhanced infrared weather satellite imagery is a shocker, more reminiscent of mid-winter than mid-summer (see below). 

The image shows a huge weather system with plenty of clouds, rain, and wind over the eastern Pacific-- a system that is heading our way.    If this was a movie, appropriate music might sound like this.


In a normal year, our weather improves rapidly after July 5th.  But not this year.  In fact, it is quite possible than many Northwest locations (particularly over NW Washington) will have their wettest July in decades.

Precipitation will move in late Tuesday, and Wednesday should be wet.

Want to be impressed?  Here is the forecast accumulated precipitation forecast through 5 PM on Thursday.  Western Washington will be wet and southwest BC will be soaked.   Terrain areas will get as much as 1-2.5 inches (pink color).  You don't such amounts in July very often.


Looking more closely over Washington,  it appears that Seattle will be "relatively" dry, with .3 to .7 inches late Tuesday and Wednesday.  Even eastern Washington will get a piece of this.


All of this weather action is associated with an unusually strong upper level low off our coast (see upper level-500 hPa map for Tuesday at 5 PM.)  The low (red colors) will be accompanied by strong southwesterly flow  moving towards the Northwest.


And now the real shocker.  This is not the end of the unusually cool/wet weather.  The latest European Center model run suggests we will have more weather systems approaching the region during the next few weeks.

People are starting to complain about the cool/wet weather, but it is the price we pay for pushing off the threat of fires and smoke.

But what should we call this?  Januly? 

NO, I have a better idea:

JAWS:  July Atmospheric Weather System



26 comments:

  1. No doubt people will cry out "Climate Change!"

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  2. Yay! Bring it! I'm happy for rain in July! Keeps the fire threat down and my plants get free watering!

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    1. yes! I was hoping we'd get some rain to help keep the fires at bay.

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  3. It *is* a lot warmer than January! I'm happily putting my sprinkler away for now. I'm hopeful we won't have a smoke season, and fires will be few and far between.

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  4. this is similar to our winter pattern, where we were locked into one extreme (warm) for about half the season, and then the Northern Hemisphere jiggled and it got cold and snowy. I am not thrilled about the idea of a damp cool July in general, but I am really concerned that things may "jiggle" again, and we could go into a really warm/hot August-Sept. It only takes a week or so of really hot weather to dry out, and a damp period that encourages continued ground vegetation growth could just mean more fuel for fires the last half of the summer.

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  5. I would rather have highs in the 70s here in Portland than in the 90s.

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  6. Well, if we have to have it, I hope it comes with thunderstorms.

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  7. This is AWESOME! I love cool, wet weather, and the thought that smoke season could be cut short (by any measure) is welcome.

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  8. What a great July. I was taking in the light drizzle this morning thinking.. this is SO much better than 85 and a blazing hot sun. Love it!

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  9. It may provide some perspective to note that all of the major western Washington reporting stations (Seattle, Olympia, Bellingham, the coast) are between about 4" to 15" below normal precipitation for both the calendar year and water year. So, while it is good to receive more than normal moisture for July, it is unlikely to greatly impact that fairly large deficit.

    You can see the numbers for yourself:

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/yeardisp.php?wfo=sew&year=2019&span=Calendar%20Year&stn=KSEA

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  10. Being a scuba diver, I'll gladly take the cooler temps. Do you have any idea what it's like to get in a drysuit, and make the 100 meter dash to the water carrying over 100 lbs on your back when the temps are in the upper 80's to lower 90's?

    Imagine walking around on a 90 degree day wrapped in a sleeping bag carrying a 120 lb backpack!

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  11. What an absolutely beautiful day today in Seattle. Fresh rain from last night made everything in the garden shine. 72 degrees and sunny all day. What a beautiful place to be, we are blessed to live here!!

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  12. This is depressing. The one thing that keeps me from going insane during a Seattle winter is that eventually summer will arrive. Unfortunately, this might be one of those summers where the really nice weather arrives in September-right when the kids go back to school.

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    1. I feel ya. Finally actually ANGRY at this crappy weather.

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  13. This is depressing. The one thing that keeps me from going insane during a Seattle winter is the hope that eventually summer will come (and I mean a REAL summer). But once in a while we have a summer where summer doesn't arrive until mid-August. This looks to be one of them.

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  14. Hello, flooding in the Midwest, 90 degree temps in Alaska, heat unbearable for humans in I do’s, etc... this IS climate change, just as scientists predicted and it’s going to get worse unless we make some major changes to our way of life. It’s nit just climate change, it’s a man made climate crisis. #NotMeUs

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  15. Juluary. I live in fire country, and this is good news. With the wet spring, there's a ton of extra fuel in the hills.

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  16. My daughter is getting married in mid August (outdoors). I am thrilled with the weather thus far. Hoping we won't have a smoky August. Something less than 95 degrees would be good too.

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  17. I told my husband we should move BEFORE he retires. I loathe this forever rain and gloom. Looks like no real dry season (since we don't really have a 'Summer') this year. Grrrrr! >:(

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