Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Serious Snow Threat Tonight for Puget Sound (and a lot more)

The latest model output supports the threat of serious snow tonight for our region.

The UW's highest resolution forecast model shows substantial regional variations, with the heaviest lowland snow from Seattle northward, with far less over Tacoma.   But there is uncertainty on the exact location of the snow band...so keep that in mind.  Seattle will face 2-5 inches if this forecast is correct.  Road temperatures are now near freezing...so this is going to stick in places where SDOT and WSDOT have not pretreated or where plows are not active.


The very latest NOAA/NWS HRRR forecast (made hourly!) has a similar pattern but only about 1-2 inches over Seattle (see below).  This even does not have the strength to give us mega snow event (8 inches plus, but it will be more than few days ago for many.


The official National Weather Service totals is for 2-3 inches over Seattle, which is quite reasonable.


69 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. How's your barometer? My Accurite says 29.41 now. Is about to go into the 29.30s range. Last time we had it this low was in October or whenever that 'bomb' happened but went too far south for any winds out of it.

      This feels like a classic surprise windstorm pattern like the South Valley Surprise 02.

      Delete
  2. Living in Olympia, wanting snow - that map is just cruel to look at!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Impressive enough to call my mother about!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I measured a maximum temp of 20.1F after a morning low of 14.4F at my location in NW Bellingham making this the coldest day in my period of record for both low maximum and minimum temperatures. This has also arguably been the coldest day in Whatcom County since the blizzard of January 2012.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Road temperatures are not near freezing...so this is going to stick in places where SDOT and WSDOT have not pretreated or where plows are not active.

    This seems to contradict it self. Was the "not" a typo?

    ReplyDelete
  6. I guess the snow gods just do not like Tacoma. Bummer.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Any idea what to expect in Issaquah/Sammamish? Love this blog, Cliff! So very helpful.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Cliff, it's unacceptable to not blog on a days like Monday. Still love you though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Way to sound like an entitled jerk. Cliff does this as a gesture to the community. Show some gratitude for the free info.

      Delete
  9. The temperature has now been at or below 20F at my location in Bellingham for nearly 40 consecutive hours.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Light snow starting in NW Bellingham at 6:15PM

    ReplyDelete
  11. NWS and TWC forecast maximum temps for this event have been 5-7 degrees warmer than observed and forecast min temps have been 2-4 degrees warmer than observed at my location in NW Bellingham

    ReplyDelete
  12. Coming down and nearly an inch and hour in S. Bellingham right now. Approximately 3.5 inches and counting...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Always enjoy reading Cliff's blog, but for the most part it doesn't address and/or isn't reality for my area (north Whatcom County). Be interesting at some point to do a deep dive into the microclimates.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks for the update Dr. Mass.

    Last February, your predictions were dead-on, whereas other weather outlets (local TV stations, NWS) were severely lacking in their accuracy!

    Hoping for more snow in Tacoma, but we seem to get a good dumping every other year or so, and we still have a few more weeks of Winter left.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Cliff--What are your thoughts on the wind predictions? That's what really concerns me. I hope that doesn't give us long power outages like the Hanukkah Eve storm of 2006.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is your barometer dropping like a stone? Mine is down in the 29.40s.

      Delete
  16. When is this supposed to take place? We had some very light snow near Green Lake, but nothing to wrote home about as of now.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Vancouver WA, we've got nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Seattle bust. But, school is cancelled. Go figure.

    ReplyDelete
  19. hardly anything coming down in Edmonds

    ReplyDelete
  20. General temperature forecast seems to be rising (I'm in Lake Forest Park), with far less time below freezing over next 12 hours. Perhaps no more snow tonight? TBD!

    ReplyDelete
  21. I keep looking at the radar loop... Not a single d@mn flake here in Pacific, WA. I've been wanting snow... *Shakes fist at stupid storm*

    ReplyDelete
  22. Just past midnight now and it has been snowing since 6pm. Looks to be about 3" and still coming down out here on SJI. It has just been a snow tease until today with only 1/2" of white on the ground over the last two days. Can't complain though, we had been courting another drought like 2015!

    ReplyDelete
  23. We were cheated. :( Flurries started north of UW 8pm and stopped 8:10pm. Radar showed everything getting pushed north.

    ReplyDelete
  24. About a foot last night at 500 feet elevation above Hood Canal, currently breezy and still snowing.
    18" on the ground with temps in the upper 20's.

    ReplyDelete
  25. 2 feet of snow in areas around Port Angeles

    ReplyDelete
  26. Port Angeles (downtown, 100' elevation) got a solid 18" between 5pm and 2am. More forecasted from 11am to 8pm tonight, with slightly warmer temps.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Sinclair Inlet and Kitsap Lake - snow bust, about none. But Bremerto Schools closed Wednesday.

    ReplyDelete
  28. I measured just under 5" of new snow this morning in NW Bellingham. The temperature has now been at or below 20F (It was 15F overnight) at my location for just over 53 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Port Angeles is being a snow hog.

    ReplyDelete
  30. The snow band missed King County entirely.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Clearview looks pretty much the same as yesterday. 😢 It often seems that the more exciting the forecast the less likely it will happen.
    What about wind? Can we still have our wind?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Cliff, i feel your pain trying to predict weather around here. Thanks for the snow however!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Port Angeles hogged it all. Seeing 12-20" all over Facebook. It collapsed the tent over the outdoor skating rink. Sheriff's Office says stay home if you can. Haven't heard from the West End yet, they were scheduled for more.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Nothing makes me happier than the disappointment of snow enthusiasts.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Only about 1/2 inch in Shoreline. Super easy commute to Seattle.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Would this low forming this morning off shore fall into the "Bomb Cyclone" category?At Buoy 46089 off shore, pressure went from 1018mb at 1150am 1/14 to 994mb as of 0950 today. Wenatchee is showing 1020mb as of 0955. Think we might get a little breeze?

    ReplyDelete
  37. We have 25cm's on the ground in Saanich!

    ReplyDelete
  38. 6+ inches overnight in south bellingham on top of the first 4. Bellingham scored!

    ReplyDelete
  39. What should we expect for February?

    ReplyDelete
  40. Live in Edmonds and all I can say is WOO HOO, thank goodness you and all the weather experts were wrong! I HATE SNOW.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Just started snowing in shoreline, maybe things are happening behind schedule?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Bumped up to 42F today under an hour of full sunshine here in the valley! Bring on Spring!!!!!!!! If we can't get any goods in the winter then let us have a wild Spring!

    Barometer is down in the 29.40s range. Really dropping. At 7am was still only 29.89. Maybe we will get a high wind event out of this?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Only some flurries Tuesday here in Burien. Started snowing heavily today (Wednesday) at 2 pm.

    ReplyDelete
  44. It’s coming down pretty seriously in Queen Anne right now.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Very seriously snowing now in Clearview. Big flakes, on top of our earlier 8 inches.
    I guess it’s not over!

    ReplyDelete
  46. I hope everyone enjoyed the 4 days of "winter" that the PNW gets. It's a shame we're back to rain and balmy conditions so quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  47. It's 3pm on Wednesday and the show is slamming us in Snohomish. Last night, nothing! I like the models were 12 hours early.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday produced some of the coldest temperatures observed in Western Whatcom County in nearly a decade. The average temperature of each of the above 3 days was in the teens at my location in NW Bellingham. The temperature at my location has been at or below 25F for almost 72 consecutive hours and was at or below 20F for nearly 60 consecutive hours. Most locations in Western Whatcom County woke up to 5-8" of fresh snow this morning and by afternoon, winds had increased such that significant blowing and drifting snow is occurring in the North County at present (BLI-YWL pressure gradient is currently below -25mb). There were a significant amount ice floes on the Nooksack, covering most of the river's surface, in Ferndale today - something I had only seen during February 2019. All things considered, I think it's fair to characterize this arctic outbreak as the most intense since the blizzard of January 2012. My furnace has been running almost continuously for the past 2 days. And we'll see, this may not be quite over yet for those of us north of the Chuckanuts.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Ended up with just over a foot total accumulation here on Orcas, ~500 feet elevation. Woohoo!

    ReplyDelete
  50. Hi Cliff, got anything off in the distant forecast for us to cling onto? How about that random dumping today? This weather seems very challenging to forecast.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Stunning temperature change tonight in Whatcom County. According to NOAA's 5 minute observations at KBLI, the temperature at 11:30pm was 27 degrees. Just 15 minutes later, at 11:45pm, the temp had risen 18 degrees to 45. WOW! The rapid rise was caused by a wind shift from NNE to SSE, a shift that was not predicted in the most current NWS forecast until Thursday afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Sayonara,snow. Just came back from walking the dog in a very cold, wet, wind-driven cloudburst. Huge drops and some sloppy ice pellets or graupel-- glad i went with my gut and grabbed my raingear before setting out.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Wow! A weird "heat wave" passed through Glacier during the night ...peaked at 31.5 F between 1-3:00 am. The temp dropped back to 23 F as "overnight low"

    What was that about, I wonder!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very similar event in Bellingham:

      10:53 pm: 27F
      11:53 pm: 45F
      12:53 am: 43F
      01:53 am: 43F
      02:53 am: 41F
      03:53 am: 26F

      By this morning it was back to 22F. During the temperature rise, there were strong southerly winds. When I when to bed, I thought we were in the big melt off, only to find out this morning that the melt turned to ice and we were back to northerly winds.

      It is now 41F at my place after some southerlies, but only 28F at the airport, which is less than a mile to the north. The area is on the cusp, but I think southerlies will start prevailing and produce a rapid warm-up.

      Delete
    2. I believe the presence of a stationary front over the area would account for the extreme temperature swings over short periods of time as relatively small displacement of the frontal boundary can result in "sloshing" temperatures on either side as converging northerly and southerly winds vie for dominance. I've read about a particularly extreme example of this phenomenon in the Black Hills of South Dakota in which motorists driving through the area encountered difficult driving conditions as they drove from one valley on the warm side of the front with temperatures well above freezing into an adjacent valley on the cold side with temperatures well below 0F resulting in instantaneous icing over of windshields as condensation of supercooled water vapor froze immediately on contact with the windshield.

      Delete
  54. We are down in Kent, and super bummed out by the minimal amount of snow we got. Is this pretty much all we can expect this winter?

    ReplyDelete