Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Finally Some Warm/Dry Weather But Then the Weekend Curse Returns

The first half of this month has been unusually wet over much of Washington State, with the exception being the lee (eastern) slopes of the Cascades, where strong downslope winds have provided drying (see below).

Over the past month in Seattle, we have had about 3.1 inches, about double the normal amount.  My garden is quite wet from it all. Wildfire danger is quite low.
The good news is that high pressure will build over the region, and according the European Center forecasts, the temperatures will zoom into the mid-70s on Friday...and conditions will be dry.


But then we get to the curse part of the situation:  a front will move in on Saturday (see 3-h precipitation forecast ending at 11 AM Saturday), with some showers hanging around into Sunday.



A powerful tool to check out the precipitation situation is to view the forecasts from the 51 member European Model ensemble (below).  The top panel shows the time when precipitation is predicted (shading) for each forecasts and the bottom gives the average of all 51 over time.  Precipitation starts around 5 AM on Saturday and then sticks around into Sunday. Not good.


Yes, there is a weekend curse here in western Washington and I do not have the prophetic skills to tell you when and if it will end.  It does appear that the situation will dry out by the middle of next week.

6 comments:

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    1. Here in Everett, I have noticed that we generally have been getting less of the rain than Seattle...I have to assume that there is a rain shadow effect from the Olympic mountains, whenever systems blow in from the West/Southwest, that diverts some, but not all, of the rain...Everett, to my surprise, averages a few inches less of rain per year than Seattle, even though the notorious convergence zone tends to drift more towards Everett....You could say that Everett is the Sequim of Snohomish County!...OK, I am exaggerating a little!

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    2. LOL....That is so funny. And Yakima is the "Palm Springs of Washington"!

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  2. I live in Woodinville and we have a seasonal stream in the backyard that usually runs from late October to late April. I’ve lived here since 1991 and we’ve never had the stream running in June so to have it running almost to the summer solstice has been very unusual. It’s been great for the lawns but I hope it doesn’t cause an uptick in mosquitos.

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    1. Feed the hummingbirds and it seems they eat the mosquitos also!

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