Midsummer Air Quality Check

 It is almost mid-July, and it is time to check on Northwest air quality.

According to the EPA's AirNow website, all measurement sites are showing good air quality (green dots), as shown below

The high-resolution visible satellite image today shows clear skies as well.

The biggest trouble spot for poor air quality is in Minnesota and neighboring states, with smoke from Canada.

The number of fires is now increasing as the fuels dry out and humans are causing ignitions.   We have been lucky with the relative lack of lightning this year, which results in fewer fires in remote areas.  

The good news is that little lightning is predicted over the next week...and we expect a gradual cool-down.

Skillful Weather Warnings But Catastrophic Damage and Large Death Tolls. We Need to Do Better.

 The same tragedy has happened time and again.

An excellent prediction of a major weather-related threat is unheeded, leading to massive destruction and loss of life.

We need to do better.  We can do better.

This blog will discuss the problem and how it might be addressed.

There are numerous examples of this failure mode; let me provide just a few.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

In 2005, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina near New Orleans resulted in 1400 deaths and $125 billion in damage. Excellent forecasts by the National Weather Service and weather models.

 

Local governments failed to take the forecasts seriously and did not evacuate vulnerable populations.   Poorly designed levees failed.

LA Wildfires, 2025

The wildfires in LA led to 30 deaths and at least 100 billion in damage.  Meteorological forecasts of strong, dry Santa Ana winds by the models were stunningly good and the National Weather Service put out an apocalyptic forecast (see below)

Power companies failed to de-energize powerlines, and local governments failed to pre-position fire-fighting capability and had emptied a critical reservoir, to name only a few of the mistakes made.

Maui Wildfire, 2023

Weather forecast models were emphatic that a major downslope windstorm would occur in the area around Lahaina.   The National Weather Service had a red-flag warning for the lee sides of the islands, but did not identify the particular threat to Lahaina.

After the fire was started, the local response was very problematic, not staying with the fire when they thought it was out, blocking travel routes, and not facilitating an effective evaluation.

Hurricane Helene (2024)

Heavy precipitation and flooding from this storm resulted in 250 deaths and nearly 80 billion dollars in damage.  Heavy rain reaching as much as 30 inches led to catastrophic flooding.   NOAA/NWS forecast models did an excellent job in predicting the hurricane path and heavy rain (see below).

The National Weather Service put out very strong warnings (see below), but a lack of communication and critical evacuations from threatened areas led to major loss of life.

Texas Flooding (2025)

As documented in my earlier blog and many other sources, the National Weather Service provided timely warnings, but local communities lacked the warning capability to effectively remove individuals from harm's way.  In addition, vulnerable camp facilities were located on threatened floodplains.

I could easily provide many other cases of excellent forecasts, but a lack of proper response, leading to massive unnecessary deaths and economic loss.

Why are we in this failure mode?  How can it be fixed?

First, it must be recognized that weather prediction has gotten immensely more skillful over the past 30 years.

The combination of much more skillful global models plus high-resolution prediction capabilities has resulted in meteorologists now being able to forecast dangerous conditions with great skill days in advance.  

For example, huge improvements in hurricane track forecasts (see below)

Heavy rain skill by the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center?  Going up rapidly (see skill of 1-inch totals below)

Second,  it needs to be recognized that our ability to observe what is happening in real-time is immensely better due to far more comprehensive observations.

Improved weather radars and massive new satellite assets provide meteorologists and others with extraordinary knowledge of what is happening....abilities we did not possess 20-30 years ago (see a sample below).

With better observations and predictions, meteorologists, hydrologists, and others in NOAA and other government agencies are in a FAR better position to provide actionable guidance for saving lives and property.

Third, with this knowledge, local and state governments, in concert with the Federal government,  must take responsibility for using the improved forecast capabilities to save lives and property.

This means better communications to the public, better warning systems, better planning for adverse conditions, and more.  

We can radically reduce deaths and losses due to storms and adverse weather by recognizing the extraordinary potential of improved observations and forecasts, and then applying this information to warn and protect our communities.

What should we NOT do?  Blame climate change or political parties you don't like.

Climate change has only a very small impact on the intensity of extreme weather (there is very, very strong science to support this statement).  Pushing climate as the origin of these extremes leads to inaction on the real problems.  Even if climate change were important, adaptation can save most lives.

Both political parties have been in power as this situation has festered.   This is a fully bipartisan problem.  Name-calling and blame will lead to inaction and more deaths.

Total nonsense.

Rain Moving In--And MUCH Cooler Tomorrow

 The radar image around 6 PM shows precipitation moving in from two directions: precipitation from a Pacific front approaching southwest British Columbia and the northwest tip of the Olympic Peninsula, and thunderstorms over eastern Oregon.

The visible satellite image at about the same time shows the two features clearly.

The front will move through on Wednesday, bringing cool/wet conditions to western Washington and the Cascades.  A welcome break that will moisten the surface and lessen the wildfire threat.

The total precipitation through 5 PM Wednesday is shown below.  A significant wetting of the western side of the Olympics and the north Cascades.

What makes this event particularly favorable is that southwest Canada will get plenty of rain (see forecast below for the next few days), which means less smoke for the Northwest.

So far, wildfire smoke has been minimal over the region and wildfire acreage has been well below normal (see the WA DNR numbers below). 

Tomorrow temperatures will only be in the 60s west of the Cascade crest, but warmer conditions will soon follow (see forecast temps below at Seattle ).

No major heatwaves, with temperatures in the 90s.   Add 10F for the Columbia Basin, with highs approaching 100F on many days:

The Texas Flooding Tragedy: Could It Have Been Avoided?

On Friday morning, heavy rains led to catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas.  

Tragically, it appears that at least fifty people lost their lives.  

But what is particularly disturbing is that the National Weather Service (NWS) provided excellent warnings and forecasts before the event that clearly predicted a substantial threat.  

And yet, no attempt at evacuation was made.

Furthermore, weather model forecasts indicated the potential for a major precipitation event over this historically flood-prone region during the prior days.

The Event

The flooding occurred around 4 AM on July 4. 

A heavy precipitation event was forecast for the region during the previous days.  For example, the NOAA/NWS HRRR forecast from 8 PM July 3 (the evening before) predicted a band of heavy rain over central Texas.

THE DAY BEFORE, the NWS Forecast Office in San Antonia put out a flood watch for central Texas Hill Country, which included the site of the tragedy.  

During the subsequent hours, the National Weather Service communicated increasingly strong warnings, including flash flood warnings.    A children's camp on a floodplain should have been evacuated.

Here is the warning by the local NWS office several hours before the flood. 

Also consider the warning by the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) before the event:

As the event got closer, with National Weather Service radar showing the event unfolding,  the San Antonia office made the threat explicit, noting a very dangerous flash event.

Any media or other organization suggesting that the National Weather Service was not on top of this event is not only not telling the truth, but doing a deep disservice to the highly professional and skillful folks in that organization.

Some folks are making such suggestions for patently political reasons.  Extraordinarily unethical and wrong.

Areas along the Guadalupe River have flooded catastrophically many times in the past, and not evacuating low-lying areas with such warnings verges on criminal neglect.  The local county (Kerr) does not even have a flood warning system in place. 

The Texas flooding is another example of large numbers of deaths, even when weather forecasts are excellent, with all too many other examples, including the Maui wildfires, the LA wildfires, and flooding from Hurricane Helene. 

But if you really want to experience media and advocacy group loss of moral compass, consider those claiming this event is the result of global warming.

For example, this connection was suggested by the New York Times:

There is NO EVIDENCE that the central Texas floods are the result of climate change.

For example, the Environmental Protection Agency has noted that flooding is DECLINING over time in that region (see below)

I examined this issue myself.  Below is a plot of the extreme daily precipitation in July for nearby San Antonio from the 1940s to today.  

There is NO upward trend, which suggests that climate change is not a factor in this event. 

If climate change was significant, there WOULD be an upward trend.

In summary, society needs to learn how to effectively use the greatly improved prediction and observational capabilities that now exist.

Most weather-related deaths can be prevented if society makes use of this valuable information.

Those using disasters to support their political and social change agendas are not only hurting those they wish to help, but acting in a morally and ethically indefensible way.

July 4 Weather and Fire Threat

 July Fourth is the most wildfire-prone day of the year, with a massive number of human ignition sources spread across the region.  So please be careful.

Today, Washington will be relatively dry, but eastern Oregon will have some natural fireworks from several thunderstorms.

The current (Friday at 8 AM) radar image shows the rain from the thunderstorms over Oregon (below).

With the lightning strike map at 8 AM indicating a number of strikes at that time (red crosses)

The UW WRF model predicts that the main shower area will move to northern Oregon and Idaho by mid-afternoon.

Why showers over Oregon?  Because of an upper-level trough/low pressure moving through southern Oregon and northern California.

The biggest wildfire threat today is from fireworks igniting dry grass and light vegetation. 

 Below is the map (from USDA Fuelcast) of dry fuel amounts over the region. Plenty of fuel over eastern Washington and Oregon.

And, in fact, there are some grass fires burning now, such as the Apple Acres fire near Wenatchee and the Cold Springs fire south of the Tri-Cities. 

The biggest threat will be where there are both strong winds and dry fuels.   

Below are the forecast surface winds around 8 PM tonight.  As expected, the strongest winds are on the eastern slopes of the Cascades, descending into eastern Washington and Oregon.  

This is where folks will have to be very, very careful

Another threat is from lightning-initiated fires over eastern Oregon, something that happened last year.

In short, be careful today and enjoy the 4th.

Mountain Wave Fest East of the Cascade Crest

 Those living in eastern Washington had quite a treat this afternoon and early evening as an impressive show of mountain wave clouds extended over large portions of the region.

Some of the new wildfire cams really displayed the ethereal beauty of the wave clouds (see below).

Below is a nice visible image this afternoon, with lots of mountain wave clouds downstream of the Cascades.

The wave clouds (also called lenticular clouds) are the result of the greatly increased westerly (from the west) winds that developed last night.  Air from the Pacific was pushed up over the Cascade crest and then oscillated up and down downstream of the terrain (see schematic below).

When the air ascended, clouds formed.

The increased flow over and down the Cascades had another major impact: a major increase in wind energy from eastern Washington (green line below).  Ironically, wind energy is very poor around here when we really need it...during the middle of heat waves. 

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Warming and Then Much Cooler for July 4

Time for the July 4th forecast, and we are close enough that skill should be good.  

The bottom line:  current warming (caused by high pressure aloft) will be followed by a cool-down as an upper-level trough approaches.

This morning, the Northwest was clear except for the typical June low clouds along the coast:

During the next 48 hours, a transient upper-level ridge will be positioned over southwest Canada, allowing temperatures to rise into the 80s in western Washington and mid to upper 90s over eastern Washington (see upper level map, 500 hPa, around 18,000 ft today).

The high temperatures as of 4 PM today (Monday) are shown below.  50s and 60s on the coast, 80s over the Puget Sound lowland, and 90s in the Willamette Valley. Toasty east of the Cascades.

Tomorrow will be similar.   But then the situation will change significantly as a complex collection of low-pressure troughs approaches the region (see the upper level map at 11 PM Thursday) as the ridge of high pressure moves eastward.

Consider the forecast temperatures for Seattle (below).   Lower 80s on Tuesday, followed by a decline into the mid to lower 70s.

In the Tri-Cities, temperatures near 100F will decline into the "cool" upper 80s.

The normal high for Seattle right now is about 74F and for the Tri-Cities about 88F.   So a return to near normal conditions by the end of the week...nearly perfect weather.

What about precipitation?

The predicted ten-day total is shown below.  Precipitation over northern BC, Idaho, and Montanta.  Eastern Oregon gets a few showers.  But nothing really over Washington.

Strangly enough, this has a silver lining:  no forecasts of thunderstorms over WA state, which means fewer fire starts.

Which is a reminder to be careful with fireworks...or avoid them completely.