Potential Aurora Tonight

 I have held off mentioning this because I did not want to "cry wolf", but there is an increasing chance that some of you might see some auroral activity tonight.

The latest guidance from the NOAA Space Weather Center (YES,  NOAA!!) indicates the critical index of potential auroral activity (Kp) has now reached 6, which I have found to be the minimum required for even a minor light show around here (see plot below).

The updated Kp forecast takes the index to nearly 7 between 8 and 11 PM tonight...see below.

The graphic from the Space Weather Center shows potential coverage reaching at least northern Washington.

The big question is clouds.   Right now, there are some high clouds overhead (see image around 6 PM), which would be fatal for good viewing, but the latest animation suggests the clouds will be through in 3 hours.

We have a chance!   I will certainly be going outside for a look around 10-11PM tonight.  Good aurora hunting!

Why The "Emergency Drought" is No Emergency

Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" talks about the danger of exaggerating a threat to the point that no one believes you.

The Department of Ecology and the Seattle Times would be well advised to read this ancient story, because they are misleading the people of our state with their claims of a "drought emergency."

The truth is clear:  such "emergency" claims are contradicted by the facts.

Crying wolf about a non-existent drought not only lessens public confidence in such warnings but wastes money and can lead to a lack of public response when the situation becomes truly serious.

Remember the definition of an emergency (Cambridge Dictionary):

A dangerous or serious situation, such as an accident, that happens suddenly or unexpectedly and needs immediate action

As described in this and my previous blog, the current precipitation situation is not dangerous, did not develop suddenly, and does not require immediate action.

The claims of a drought emergency, centered on Kittitas and Yakima counties (see map), are very weak for many reasons. 

Consider the situation for the reservoirs serving this area.  Water levels are rapidly rising and will soon exceed last year's level.  Currently, the Yakima region reservoirs are at 67% of normal capacity and most of the snowmelt is in the future.  Thus, the storage levels will improve further.  By a lot.

One reason we can be sure of this is the predicted stream flows (by the Portland River Forecast Center).  The predicted river levels by late summer should be 87% to 105% of normal.   Healthy river levels like this are good for irrigation and for filling reservoirs.

The snowpack is not in an "emergency" state, with relevant basin being 86% of normal (see below from USDA)

The situation this year will be far better (moister) than last year.  But even with drier conditions than this year, agricultural productivity in Washington State was quite good in 2024 (see below), with the greatest weather problem for 2024 being the cold wave last spring (not drought).

Good news on the temperature front this year: no freezing cold wave predicted by the very skillful ECMWF ensemble of many forecasts through the end of the month.  Once in May the threat is over.

I talked to a reporter from WA Ag Information Network today and he had talked to several growers.  They are optimistic about the current season.

So should you.

In summary, the "drought emergency" talk is highly irresponsible and in contradiction to observed facts on the ground.  It is used as a tool to scare people, often with unsupported attempts to connect the fictitious "drought" to climate change.  

Finally, it is interesting to check Google Trends for how many searches have included "drought emergency...see below.  

This term has become more trendy during recent years, with Washington State being the number one place in the nation for using it.  The state with the most reliable and bountiful precipitation in the nation.   That tells you something....

If only Aesop were alive today....

A Sky Full of Lines

When the conditions are just right, the Northwest sky can be streaked by dozens, if not hundreds, of cloud lines called contrails.

Consider a view from the NOAA GOES geostationary satellite this afternoon (below).  The linear features are contrails.   A lot of north-south lines over western Washington (aircraft going up and down the coast), while over the ocean, there is a mixture:  some planes from Hawaii and others from CA heading north and west.

A lower polar-orbiting satellite got a closer-in view a few hours before, and if you look closely, you can see the shadows of the contrails on the ocean.

Contrails are associated with a layer aloft that is at or near saturation (100% relative humidity).  In fact, the UW WRF model showed high relative humidity air (lighter colors) moving in around 2 PM (below).

The balloon-launched weather instrument (radiosonde) at Forks, on the NW Washington Coast, at 5 PM shows temperature and dew point with height.  Between 300 and 400 hPa (7340 to 9331 meters, 24000 to 31000 ft above sea level), the air was nearly saturated, and close to saturation just above and below.

Excellent conditions for contrail production.  

Why?  Because jet engines inject extra water vapor into the atmosphere, plus lots of particulates that can serve as condensation or freezing nuclei that enhance to cloud formation process.

A potent sign of the potential for contrail formation is the development of a thin cirrostratus cloud layer, a high-level cloud made of ice crystals.   You can see this with your own eyes.

At 9 AM this morning, the skies over Seattle were essentially clear.

By 1:20 PM, a thin haze of cirrostratus clouds was evident.

At 2 PM, there were contrails, in this case an "x" of crossing contrails above Mount Rainier.   A bit over the top, perhaps, but that was reality.😃

I am taking a chance blogging about this.   I can guarantee some folks will be upset at me for writing this blog.  

Why?  Because some people think that these lines in the skies are not the result of combustion in aircraft engines ejecting water vapor and particles, but a secret, nefarious government project to fight climate change.  Instead of calling the lines contrails, they term them CHEMTRAILS.  

Beautiful Satellite Imagery

 If you want to know one of many reasons that NOAA and federal investments in weather technology are important, consider some of the weather satellite and radar imagery available during the past few days.

Below is a visible satellite image from one of NOAA's GOES Geostationary weather satellites.   Such satellites are parked over the equator around 36,000 km above the Earth's surface.

The star indicates Seattle, and you can see a potent frontal band of clouds offshore (blue arrow).  When that front moved in, we had some rain.  This front was shearing apart at this time, with the lower portion lagging behind, as indicated by a thin line of clouds (red arrow).  

This feature is called a narrow cold frontal rainband and was discovered by UW researchers.

Behind the front, there was cold, unstable air that produced fields of cumulus clouds with clear areas in between (noted as well).   When such cumulus activity moves in, we receive our famous showers and sunbreaks.

Another valued piece of NOAA weather hardware is the weather radar network, with several radars in our area.

As the frontal bands moved over land yesterday, you could see the broad band of precipitation with the primary frontal band (red arrow) and s narrow one with the surface front.  Look closely, and you can view showers on the windward (western) side of the Olympics.   Marvelous, but expensive technology.

Friday afternoon, a much weaker front was offshore (see below) and will move in overnight.

In addition to the geostationary satellites and weather radars, NOAA and NASA have some low-flying (about 800 km above the surface) polar orbiting weather satellites.  Such satellites give a much higher resolution view of the clouds and the Earth's surface.

Here is the view of Western WA today from the MODIS satellite.

While the image of the Columbia Basin can even identify individual irrigated fields.

The U.S. has built a marvelous and expensive weather observing system, and I suspect that no one, of either party, wants it to go away.

Is There Really A Drought Emergency in Washington State?

 The Washington State Department of Ecology has declared a drought emergency for large areas of Washington State, with particular emphasis on the Yakima watershed of south-central Washington.

Looking at observations and predictions,  this drought declaration appears to be unwarranted and in error.

Let me provide the evidence, and you can decide.   

First, if there is a drought situation,  you might expect that precipitation would have been below normal over the "drought emergency" area, resulting in dry soils, both at the surface and below the surface.   

To evaluate this, below is the percentage of normal precipitation during the "water year" from October 1 to yesterday.  

Above normal (120-130%) precipitation at Yakima (star)!  Most of Yakima and Kittitas counties received above-normal precipitation, and only a small portion on the northeast side was below normal.

What about comparing precipitation at Yakima and Ellensburg over this water year and previous water years ending April 8?     The answer is below.

At both locations, this year was considerably wetter than normal!   Doesn't suggest much of a water emergency, does it?

What about the Vegetation Drought Response Index?   Unusually moist!

Or streamflows in the Drought Emergency area? Near normal or above normal!

The truth is that precipitation has been bountiful over the Drought Emergency area, and soils and vegetation are normally moist, if not wetter than normal.

There must be SOMETHING suggesting drought!   What is causing all this panic?   

Perhaps it is because of the snowpack?   

Below is the percent of normal for the water content of the regional snow pack this morning. 

 Northeast of Yakima, it is 97%.  Below normal by 3%!  And 105% (above normal) in Yakima and to the south.   91% for Wenatchee, but dropping to 74% to the north.

 Folks...this is not a serious situation and certainly not an emergency for Yakima and Kittitas Counties.

How can I be so sure this is no emergency?  Because the NOAA/NWS Northwest River Forecast Center considers both snowpack and precipitation to predict river levels during the next 5 months.   

River levels on the Yakima,  Columbia, and other major rivers control how much water is available for irrigation.

Below is a sample of their forecast, showing you the predicted river levels in 120 days (August)--at the end of our dry summer.  Most of the values are 80-100 % of normal.

The Columbia River will be 95-100%.

There is no water emergency, not even close.  Not even in the neighborhood.

State officials pushing this narrative are doing a profound disservice to our state.

As expected, the Seattle Times Climate Lab gave this "emergency" big play in the paper today.

The naked political advocacy and bias of the paper were pretty obvious, as suggested by all the Trump talk in the article (see sample below).

The Seattle Times is rapidly losing any credibility as a source of reliable environmental information.  Really unfortunate and very unnecessary.

April is the Month of Drying

In western Washington and Oregon, April is the month of drying.

And the same is true of much of the West Coast.

This may sound strange considering the popular mention of April showers in song and verse.

Consider the climatological probability of receiving at least 0.01 inch of precipitation at Seattle Tacoma Airport (below).  

A large drop between April 1 and May 1.  By far, this is the largest one-month decline of the year.  By the way,  .01 inch of liquid water is the criterion for measurable precipitation.

The probability of precipitation is relatively steady from mid-November to late March (50-60%), but declines to approximately 38% in late April.  

On the Washington coast (Clearwater), the situation is similar .... a big drop from the winter wet plateau to drier conditions in April (the probability of measurable rain dropping from  70% to 50%).

What about San Francisco further down the coast? 

Also a big drop in the probability of precipitation in April---but an equally large decline occurs during March.   The drying starts earlier in San Francisco.

To further illustrate the profound drying in April, below is a plot of the average precipitation along the West Coast in March and May.

Wow.   Huge decline everywhere.  Precipitation essentially goes away for Southern California during April.   LA beach season has begun!

So the question you must be asking is why?   Why is there a big drying in April over the West Coast? 

Significant changes occur in the atmosphere between the two months.  

Consider sea level pressure.  In March, there is strong low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure west of Mexico.   This pattern is associated with strong westerly (from the west) winds in the lower atmosphere that bring storms and moisture to the West Coast.

The same map (sea-level pressure) for May is very different.  High pressure has pushed up the West Coast.  With sinking air to the east of highs, that means that much of the coastal region is under descending air...which is inherently dry.

By May, a thermal trough of low pressure has moved northward up the interior... the classic summertime pattern.    And with high pressure moving northward and low pressure to the north retreating, the jet stream is weakening and storms are deflected northward.  

Finally, a little irony.   Even though April is a drying month, this April will start with a LOT of precipitation (see the totals through Saturday morning).  Two to three inches of liquid water in some of the mountains!

The Seattle Times Claims About the Termination of the National Weather Service Are False

 The Seattle Times ClimateLab stories are often sloppy and incorrect, with the article in today's paper a good example of poor journalism, with politicized, error-filled claims.

The headline on a front page story today asks whether "this story is a goodbye to the National Weather Service..."?

Then it describes a potentially last visit to the National Weather Service before Trump and MAGA

Haven't got the point yet?    Then read into the story.

So the claim is that the Trump folks are closely following the Project 2025 document, which calls for ending NOAA and sending NWS forecast functions to the private sector.

Want it even clearer?  The Seattle Times article then quotes an article in the Atlantic discussing "the MAGA plan to end free weather reports"

The Big Problem with the Seattle Times Story

The essential problem with the story is that NONE OF IT IS TRUE.

False, unsupported claims, that are overtly pushing a partisan viewpoint.

Stronger words would be appropriate, but I will leave those to others.

Consider some facts.

Fact 1:  No National Weather Service office has been terminated.

Fact 2:  No change in National Weather Service  (NWS) products has been made or proposed.

Fact 3:  President Trump explicitly denied that he follows Project 2020 plans and has explicitly rejected it.  

Let me say this again....President Trump has explicitly stated he does not support Project 2025.  He said it presents thoughts of the far right.  NOT HIS. 

Fact 4:  The new head of the Department of Commerce (Howard Lutnick),  the department to which NOAA and the NWS belong, has explicitly stated that he will not eliminate NOAA or the NWS.

Don't believe me?  Check out this AXIOS article.

Lutnick stated he would maintain the NWS in his testimony in the U.S. Senate.

Fact 5:  I have talked to folks in the new administration.  They have made it clear that there is no agenda to get rid of NOAA or the NWS.

Disappointing "Journalism"

The author of this story, Erik Lacitis, called me up when he was writing the article.   I told him the facts. I have a deep knowledge of the situation in the NOAA and the NWS, having served on several advisory committees and having written several papers on the situation.  

Yet, even given the facts, the author produced this clearly incorrect article.  Very disappointing.   

The Trump Administration Has Not Done Well So Far with NOAA/NWS

Finally, let me be clear. 

 The Trump administration has made several serious mistakes, such as firing probationary NOAA/NWS employees and then having to rehire them.  The Trump folks don't seem to have a logical game plan for understanding what needs to be fixed in NOAA and then doing something about it.

NOAA has deep flaws that need to be addressed.    This administration needs to reach out to those who understand the issues and have ideas about how to fix them.  

Can you plant your seeds yet?

 This time of the year, I start thinking about my vegetable garden and whether the soil is warm enough to plant some seeds.

Certainly, the weeds have started to sprout and grow.

So let's check with our friends at the AgWeatherNet at Washington State University.

Below is the latest soil temperature at 2 inches down.  Lower to mid-50s in western Washington and 50s to lower 60s in eastern Washington.    The warmest soil is around Yakima, which is typical.

I sometimes muse about why the Yakima area is so warm.  Yakima is in the sinking zone southeast of the Cascades, with the sinking air warming by compression and reducing any clouds.   Fewer clouds means more warming solar radiation.  You can see the effect today at noon (see visible image below).

The SNAP satellite can measure soil temperature from space....here is a view of the entire West Coast three days ago.  Nice and warm soils in California and southern Nevada, with the Yakima to Tri-Cities area the warmest in the NW.

Consider the plot of 2-inch soil temperature at Seattle (near the Urban Horticulture Center at the UW).  Soil temperatures had dropped into the 30s back in February during our extended cold period, but it is now just about 50°F.  It was around 60°F in mid-October.

Now, back to the big question: what seeds can we plant now? 

 Considering the following table, there are plenty of vegetable seeds that can be started now, particularly the leafy veggies.  But not beans, squash, and melons, which require warm soil.  

Time to get working!

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Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 8  PM on Sunday for Patreon supporters. I will talk about the latest spring/summer forecasts and answer your questions.