July 24, 2025

How to Save Seattle (And Other Locations) from Weather-Related Tragedy

The flooding tragedy in Texas had a component common to nearly all recent weather-related disasters: 

The weather predictions and warnings were excellent, but local governments, utilities, and other responsible parties did not use the excellent meteorological guidance effectively.

Similar poor use of skillful forecasts has occurred frequently and recently, such as the strong winds that produced massive fires in Maui and Los Angeles. Or the excellent precipitation forecasts for Hurricane Helene that were not effectively used to warn.


We should not feel too smug here in the Northwest.

During the past five years, hundreds have died in our region from meteorological conditions.   From heat and cold.  From trees falling during intense windstorms.  Due to river and coastal flooding.  Others have fallen from accidents on "black ice", while many have been sickened by wildfire smoke.



In virtually all of these cases, the forecasts were good to excellent, and lives could have been saved and damage avoided if the correct actions had been taken.

We need a better way to make both individuals and governments better aware of the nature of the meteorological threats.

Seattle could help lead the way.

Imagine an online website/smartphone app that would warn of all the major weather-related problems (see example below)


An automatic system could monitor these threats.   In parallel, the system would also monitor the warnings/forecasts by the National Weather Service.

If there are threats for any of these issues in Seattle or at your location, you would be warned.  Click on the item, and detailed information on the threat would be provided.

Some of us at the University of Washington have already built some of the necessary components:  Seattle SnowWatch and Seattle WindWatch. The observational and model data are available.

The integration could be done in a few months, allowing the City and local residents to enjoy state-of-science warnings and weather information.

Looking beyond Seattle, the NOAA and other federal agencies could build, perhaps in concert with the private sector, a national app like this for smartphones and other devices.

A one-stop shop for all environmental threats.    

I should note that there are already some phone apps that cover part of this territory, such as Storm Shield (see below).


It is important to remind folks in areas without cell service that the National Weather Service still maintains NOAA Weather Radar, which will beep and provide terse emergency weather information during dangerous periods.

You can even get one with a strobe light and bed shaker (see below)



Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM next Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions,  take a deeper dive on the late summer forecast, and consider the outlook for next winter.





July 22, 2025

Crystal Mountain Cam Captures Fire Started by Lightning Strike

Yesterday, a series of thunderstorms moved through the central Cascades.

For example, the satellite-based lightning detection system at 2:30 PM yesterday showed several lightning strikes in the Mt. Rainier area (red markers are lightning strikes and shading indicates clouds)

 
Here is a close-up view at the same time.  The tram to the top of Crystal Mountain was shut down due to lightning yesterday afternoon....and for good reason.


We had a front row seat of the impacts of one of these lightning strikes from the Crystal Mountain 360 Cam.   I will show you a series of cam images looking toward the west-southwest, with Mt. Rainier on the left side.

At 2:20 PM, there were plenty of ominous clouds and some were precipitating.  There was some lightning at this time (not apparent in this image).


A lightning strike occurred during the next few minutes and by 2:50 PM some smoke was apparent...a fire had been started.


At 3 PM flames were evident.


And the fire was putting out a lot of smoke at 3:10 PM

This morning there was no smoke or hint of the fire.


Perhaps this is due to the substantial amount of rain that fell with the series of convective storms, with a nearby location getting three-quarters of an inch (blue star shows the fire location).


The good news regarding this event is that it was wet enough that the many lightning strikes apparently did not start many new fires.





July 21, 2025

Lightning and Thunderstorms Over and East of the Cascade Crest

 The National Weather Service now has a flash flood warning due to potential thunderstorms over north-central Washington, from the North Cascades northeastward.


As I will describe below, thunderstorms are a good bet, but I suspect the flooding threat is relatively low.

Convective storms, some with thunder and lightning, did occur yesterday (Sunday) over the Cascades and were even visible from Seattle:


Terminology alert:  meteorologists often use the term convection for unstable situations that result in cumulus clouds and sometimes thunderstorms.  Convection is generally associated with a large decrease in temperature with height, causing the air to convect, with up and down motions.

The convection/thunderstorms yesterday produced precipitation over northeast Washington (see totals below), with only modest lightning.


Today there is potential for more unstable air, convective showers, and some lightning and thunder over and east of the Cascades.

The visible satellite at 9 AM this morning shows considerable cloudiness over the region, with some convective cells evident over south-central WA (whiter areas).

The current (10:42 AM) weather radar is picking up some showers with this convection/instability:

Today's model runs are emphatic that convective showers will develop this afternoon over the Cascades, the Okanogan, and northeast WA.

Here is the simulated radar impact at 3 PM from the UW WRF model, with the orange colors showing the heaviest rain from the convection.


The forecast of the NOAA HRRR model at the same time is similar.


The total precipitation through 5 AM Tuesday (shown below) is moderate, with highest amounts reaching 1.5 inches.  Not enough for flooding.


The occurrence of this precipitation is associated with an upper-level low over eastern WA (see map today at 2 PM for around 18,000 ft).


My only worry about this event is that the associated lightning could start some wildfires.    One reason we have had such few fires this summer is the lack of lightning-induced fires.

This is not an accident:  the same large-scale conditions that gave us a dry summer have also reduced lightning.
___________________-

My Atmospheric 101 course this autumn.

This general intro to atmospheric sciences can not be taken remotely and asynchronously, meaning you can take it at home and watch when convenient.  More information here.


July 19, 2025

No Heatwaves During the Warmest Time of the Year

 As shown by the temperature plot below for SeaTac Airport, the next few weeks are climatologically the warmest of the year (brown indicates average temperature range, red shows record highs).   SeaTac's average high temperatures during the next weeks are close to 80°F, and many of our record highs have occurred during late July and early August.


There are all kinds of definitions for heat waves, but whatever your definition, model forecasts are pretty emphatic that there WILL NOT be any heat waves during the next week or so in our area.

Consider the forecast by the National Weather Service's National Blend of Models--their most highly skillful temperature forecast system (below).  High temperatures undulate around 80F, with the highest at 85F next Wednesday and the coldest (74F) today.

Every day, the low temperature drops in the 50s.    Very, very average weather.  Perfect weather by my book.


The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day forecast (below) predicts BELOW NORMAL temperatures for western Washington and much of California.   Near normal in eastern Washington. Warmer east of the Rockies.


Do I have confidence it this forecast?  

Yes, because the ensembles of many forecasts....a tool to determine uncertainty in the predictions... shows that virtually all the forecasts are in line with the above forecast.  

To show this,  the GEFS ensemble of many National Weather Service Model forecasts is shown for the next week below.   Most forecasts provide a similar story, and NONE are going for a big heatwave.

You can go to the bank with this forecast 😀.


So what is going on?

Consider the large-scale upper-level weather pattern shown by the heights of the 500-hPa pressure surface (think of this as pressure around 18,000 ft).

Monday morning, there will be a sharp trough of low pressure over our region.....a cold pattern.


Wednesday afternoon, the trough moves out, and an extension of a Pacific ridge/high pressure extends over our region.  This is when our temperatures climb into the mid-80s.


Next Friday, a cold trough moves over the entire West Coast (sweater alert!).


And on Saturday, a sharp, strong trough has moved over Washington and southwest BC.


The bottom line:  no heatwaves and comfortable sleeping at night with AC west of the Cascade crest.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM next Saturday for Patreon supporters.  Will answer questions,  take a deeper dive on the late summer forecast, and consider the outlook for next winter.




July 16, 2025

Have the winds been unusual this summer?

People talk to me about the weather....and several have told me that the winds this summer have been unusual.

Last night, I gave a talk at a local paragliding club, and many of their members thought that northerly winds (from the north) were stronger and more frequent during the past month around central Puget Sound.

And tonight I discussed the issue with one of the leaders of Sand Point Sail on Lake Washington.   He was also convinced that the northerly winds were stronger than normal this year.

Surely, we have had a drier-than-normal late spring and early summer in western Washington:  have the winds been unusual as well, and if so, why?  

This blog will reveal the answer.

The tool I will use is called a wind rose, which shows the frequency of winds by direction and speed range.

Consider the wind rose at Seattle Tacoma Airport for June 1 to July 16.   The wind speed ranges for each direction are color-coded.  The distance from the center tells you the frequency.  Winds from the north occurred a bit over 15% of the time.  Southwesterly was also a popular direction.


We can compare the wind rose from this year (again June 1- July 16) to the average wind rose for the same days of the year, but based on the climatological record over decades (1948-2025).
 

 It is shown below.

They were right!   The normal situation is to have less frequent northerly winds and more frequent southwesterly winds.

Considering the wind roses at Paine Field, Everett, in the North Sound, for the same late spring/early summer period (below), we note way less southerly winds this year than normal, but stronger northerly winds.

 So, folks were right! More northerly winds this year in western Washington.

As long as we are considering wind roses, let's take a look at the coast--in the case of Hoquiam.

Western winds dominated this year from June 1 through today.  Almost no winds from the east for the last 1.5 months.

Average, or climatological conditions at Hoquiam for the same period are also dominated by western flow, but there is far more occurrence of winds from the southwest and less from the northwest (see below).

So this late spring/early summer period is a bit different than normal regarding winds over our region....but why?

I think I can answer that.  Below is the difference from normal of sea level pressure for the same period (June 1-mid July).

Higher than normal sea level pressure to the west and north of our region.  This will tend to cause stronger than normal northerly winds and drier than normal conditions.


There is no reason to expect that this pattern has anything to do with global warming.

How do I know this?  

Because climate models driven by increasing CO2 and methane do not produce this pattern.  

I have carefully examined the climate model runs and my group has been running regional climate simulations as well.

 













July 14, 2025

One Day Cool-Down and Strong, Threatening Winds in Eastern Washington

 Today, an upper-level trough of low pressure is moving through the region, bringing cooler conditions over the region and strong winds in eastern Washington.   

In fact, much stronger winds from an unusual direction.

Consider the forecast upper-level weather map (500 hPa pressure, around 18,000 ft) this morning (below).  A low-pressure area.... a trough...   is moving southeastward over the region, with high pressure....a ridge... over the Pacific.


This feature is pushing cooler, Pacific air into western Washington and Oregon, resulting in stronger westerly winds over the eastern slopes of the Cascades.  

But in the wake of the trough later today, strong northerly winds (from the north) will push down the Okanogan Valley into northeast Washington.

Consider the wind gust forecasts from the UW high-resolution weather prediction model.  At 8 PM Monday (today), it is going for moderate wind gusts...up to about 35 kt around Ellensburg and vicinity.  Typical summer conditions and why there are a lot of wind turbines there.

Today at the same time,  the wind gusts are even stronger around Omak and the Okanagan area.   Look closely, and you see the powerful winds are from the north....which is relatively unusual this time of the year.



A plot of the maximum wind gusts forecast through tonight shows a substantial strong wind area on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.


As of 3 PM (Monday), the strong winds were materializing, with northerly wind gusts to 68 mph in the Okanogan!  Wow.



With dry fuels in place, there is a substantial wildfire threat with these wind conditions, so folks need to be careful not to cause ignitions.

My colleagues at the National Weather Service (Spokane office) have strong warnings out (see below).  They also spotlight the particular danger in the Okanagan.  Another example of why we need the forecasts of the National Weather Service.

 










July 12, 2025

Midsummer Air Quality Check

 It is almost mid-July, and it is time to check on Northwest air quality.

According to the EPA's AirNow website, all measurement sites are showing good air quality (green dots), as shown below


The high-resolution visible satellite image today shows clear skies as well.


The biggest trouble spot for poor air quality is in Minnesota and neighboring states, with smoke from Canada.



The number of fires is now increasing as the fuels dry out and humans are causing ignitions.   We have been lucky with the relative lack of lightning this year, which results in fewer fires in remote areas.  

The good news is that little lightning is predicted over the next week...and we expect a gradual cool-down.


July 10, 2025

Skillful Weather Warnings But Catastrophic Damage and Large Death Tolls. We Need to Do Better.

 The same tragedy has happened time and again.

An excellent prediction of a major weather-related threat is unheeded, leading to massive destruction and loss of life.

We need to do better.  We can do better.

This blog will discuss the problem and how it might be addressed.

There are numerous examples of this failure mode; let me provide just a few.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

In 2005, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina near New Orleans resulted in 1400 deaths and $125 billion in damage. Excellent forecasts by the National Weather Service and weather models.

 
Local governments failed to take the forecasts seriously and did not evacuate vulnerable populations.   Poorly designed levees failed.

LA Wildfires, 2025

The wildfires in LA led to 30 deaths and at least 100 billion in damage.  Meteorological forecasts of strong, dry Santa Ana winds by the models were stunningly good and the National Weather Service put out an apocalyptic forecast (see below)


Power companies failed to de-energize powerlines, and local governments failed to pre-position fire-fighting capability and had emptied a critical reservoir, to name only a few of the mistakes made.

Maui Wildfire, 2023

Weather forecast models were emphatic that a major downslope windstorm would occur in the area around Lahaina.   The National Weather Service had a red-flag warning for the lee sides of the islands, but did not identify the particular threat to Lahaina.


After the fire was started, the local response was very problematic, not staying with the fire when they thought it was out, blocking travel routes, and not facilitating an effective evaluation.

Hurricane Helene (2024)

Heavy precipitation and flooding from this storm resulted in 250 deaths and nearly 80 billion dollars in damage.  Heavy rain reaching as much as 30 inches led to catastrophic flooding.   NOAA/NWS forecast models did an excellent job in predicting the hurricane path and heavy rain (see below).

The National Weather Service put out very strong warnings (see below), but a lack of communication and critical evacuations from threatened areas led to major loss of life.


Texas Flooding (2025)

As documented in my earlier blog and many other sources, the National Weather Service provided timely warnings, but local communities lacked the warning capability to effectively remove individuals from harm's way.  In addition, vulnerable camp facilities were located on threatened floodplains.

I could easily provide many other cases of excellent forecasts, but a lack of proper response, leading to massive unnecessary deaths and economic loss.

Why are we in this failure mode?  How can it be fixed?

First, it must be recognized that weather prediction has gotten immensely more skillful over the past 30 years.

The combination of much more skillful global models plus high-resolution prediction capabilities has resulted in meteorologists now being able to forecast dangerous conditions with great skill days in advance.  

For example, huge improvements in hurricane track forecasts (see below)


Heavy rain skill by the NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center?  Going up rapidly (see skill of 1-inch totals below)


Second,  it needs to be recognized that our ability to observe what is happening in real-time is immensely better due to far more comprehensive observations.

Improved weather radars and massive new satellite assets provide meteorologists and others with extraordinary knowledge of what is happening....abilities we did not possess 20-30 years ago (see a sample below).


With better observations and predictions, meteorologists, hydrologists, and others in NOAA and other government agencies are in a FAR better position to provide actionable guidance for saving lives and property.

Third, with this knowledge, local and state governments, in concert with the Federal government,  must take responsibility for using the improved forecast capabilities to save lives and property.

This means better communications to the public, better warning systems, better planning for adverse conditions, and more.  

We can radically reduce deaths and losses due to storms and adverse weather by recognizing the extraordinary potential of improved observations and forecasts, and then applying this information to warn and protect our communities.

What should we NOT do?  Blame climate change or political parties you don't like.

Climate change has only a very small impact on the intensity of extreme weather (there is very, very strong science to support this statement).  Pushing climate as the origin of these extremes leads to inaction on the real problems.  Even if climate change were important, adaptation can save most lives.

Both political parties have been in power as this situation has festered.   This is a fully bipartisan problem.  Name-calling and blame will lead to inaction and more deaths.

Total nonsense.












How to Save Seattle (And Other Locations) from Weather-Related Tragedy

The flooding tragedy in Texas had a component common to nearly all recent weather-related disasters:  The weather predictions and warnings w...