Wet, Cool Weather Ahead for Much of the West Coast

 Generally, April is a month of rapid drying over much of California....but not this year.

A pattern that brings a series of low-pressure systems to California will be the rule for much of the month.

Let me illustrate by showing you a series of upper-level (500 hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) maps.  Blue colors indicate much lower than normal heights/pressures.

Thursday evening, a strong low center will be parked off California, bringing a moisture flow into central and southern California

Saturday will bring a stronger low to Northern California.

This pattern will not go away.....a week later (Sunday, April 19) another strong low will be offshore the CA/OR border.

This series of troughs/low-pressure systems will bring bountiful precipitation to the West Coast.

Over the next ten days, substantial precipitation is expected over California and southern Oregon (see below), locations where the snowfall has been below normal.    This precipitation will top off reservoirs and ensure good river flow this month.

The predicted total snowfall for the same period is substantial, with large amounts in the Sierra Nevada.

One should note that the substantial precipitation this winter has filled California reservoirs, many approaching full (see below).  Right now, CA reservoirs are about 120% of normal. 

As noted earlier, the snowpack is substantially below normal (see below), savaged by the recent warm/dry period.  Thankfully, California has a massive water storage capacity.

The above-normal water storage in reservoirs will buffer the low snowpack, while rain this month will moisten soils going into the dry season.  This is important considering the drying effects of the recent warm/dry weather over California.

Major Global Cooling of the Past Two Years and the Big U.S. Heatwave Last Month. Climate Change?

One of the most effective and accurate ways to monitor the slow warming of our planet from increasing greenhouse gases is to use satellites that measure the radiation emitted by our atmosphere.  

One of the leading groups in using this technology is at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, led by Drs. Roy Spencer and John Christy.  

Below is their plot of lower atmosphere temperatures based on satellite data since 1979.

You will notice a slow rise in temperature over the past 50 years, by about 1°C.  This is probably mainly due to increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

You will also notice a lot of ups and downs on shorter time scales, which are mainly due to natural variability.  Of particular note is the big spike in warming in 2023, followed by rapid COOLING during the past few years.

The media and climate activists made a lot of false claims that the sudden warming in 2023 was due to human-emitted greenhouse gases, but have been very silent about the recent cooling.

Clearly, the cooling is not consistent with their "messaging" about global warming.

The truth was that the huge 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption ejected massive amounts of water vapor (a VERY potent greenhouse gas) into the stratosphere, which led to the spike in warming.  

The rapid warming had nothing to do with human emissions, with the global temperatures naturally declining as the excessive water vapor was slowly removed from the system.

Recently, the media and advocacy groups have been going bonkers about the recent March heatwave over the U.S., claiming with great certainty that it is the result of human-caused global warming.

These claims are easily disproved:  the heat wave was highly localized and some nearby areas were much colder than normal.

I can demonstrate this by showing you the temperature differences from normal (climatology) over the entire planet for March using the satellite observations noted above.  Red, orange, and yellow indicate warmer than normal temperatures, and blue indicates colder-than-normal temperatures (see below).

You can see the large area of warmer than normal temperatures centered over the western U.S.  No doubt about it.  But temperatures even MORE extreme on the COLD side to the north, from Alaska through northern Canada. 

Global warming advocates are often talking about the Arctic warming due to climate change, with sad stories about dying polar bears.   But in this case, a broad swath fo the Arctic was much colder than normal.

In the tropics temperatures were near normal. 

It is easy to determine the real cause of the temperature anomalies:  a highly perturbed upper-level flow pattern (see 500 hPa pressure level, about 18,000 ft, below).     Red indicates ridging or enhanced high pressure aloft, blue indicates troughing (ehanced low pressure).

The flow pattern was highly perturbed over North America.  Research is very clear that global warming does not contribute to such a pattern. 

 

Let me end with the Golden Rule of Climate Change.

The more extreme the anomaly from climatology (the average climate), the LESS likely it is that human-forced global warming is the cause.  This was true of the warming in 2023 and is true for last month's warm event over the western U.S.

Human-caused global warming is real, but it is slow and modest in magnitude, and global in scope.

FINALLY, Some Warm Weather

After a cool, wet March, we are finally getting some warm spring days.   

 Warm and dry enough so that you will be comfortable without a jacket.    Highs reaching the upper 60s and some sun. 

Perfect weather for that bike ride, hike, gardening, or simply a pleasant talk.

The National Weather Service National Blend of Models (their most skillful product) is going for 62F on Saturday, 65F on Sunday, and nearly 70F on Sunday in Seattle, before cooling down on Tuesday.

Eastern Washington will be considerably warmer, reaching nearly 80F in the Tri-Cities on Monday.

To provide more detail, here are forecast temperatures for 5 PM Sunday afternoon from the UW high-resolution model. 

Upper 60s and 70s from southern Puget Sound to Portland, and also warm in the lower Columbia Valley

By Monday afternoon at the same time, western Washington and Oregon have cooled a bit, while the Columbia Valley has warmed.

All this warming is associated with a transient upper-level ridge of high pressure that will build over the area this week (see below, for 500 hPa...about 18,000 ft, red indicates high pressure).

By Tuesday morning, the high pressure retreats westward and a trough of lower pressure (blue colors) passes to our north, bringing the cool down.

Enjoy.

Seattle Times Provides Deceptive and False Information on Washington State Drought

Truth should be important to the Seattle Times. 

Professional integrity and honesty should be a priority.  

Providing the public with accurate information on an important public issue should be paramount.

But when it comes to issues dealing with climate, the Seattle Times has descended into advocacy, hype, and exaggeration, unsupported by facts and actual science.   

Articles written by the Seattle Times Climate Lab, which receives financial support from climate advocacy groups, are the most concerning, as illustrated by the deceptive, unfactual article published yesterday.

The article, How bad is Washington's summer drought going to get?, starts with a large picture of a major reservoir (Lake Keechelus)--see below

The picture shows a completely empty lake, and the legend describes a "depleted Lake Keechelus" and that this total lack of water is a "familiar scene."

Totally deceptive and wrong.  The truth is that the lake is nearly full, as shown by an image total from a WSDOT cam:

Don't believe your eyes?   The official measurements of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation indicate the lake was 95% full two days ago (it is now 96%):

Still not convinced?  Below is a plot of this year's lake level (blue line) versus normal (red line).   

Lake levels are now WAY above normal....in fact, exceeding the normal maximum levels in early summer.  So high, reservoir managers reduced the level a bit to avoid flooding.

So the headline claim of the article was wrong...and they had to know this.

I am hardly warming up regarding the ST tall tales.   Much of the article is factually wrong.

For example, it tells us:

"This summer is expected to be especially hot and dry, too, Mellor pointed out. El Niño conditions are moving in from the tropics."

This is nonsensical.   We are still in a La Niña (see below), and the transition to Neutral and then El Niño conditions will only occur during the summer.

Blue colors indicate temperatures below normal

Even more important, Northwest summer precipitation has very little correlation with El Niño and La Niña--even if it were in place.   

This figure from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which shows the precipitation anomalies from normal for an El Niño summer, shows this clearly.

Don't believe NOAA and only trust online AI?  Here is what Gemini gave me:

Key Correlations & Current Trends

• Weak Summer Link: Meteorologists note that El Niño does not have as significant an impact on the region in the spring and summer as it does in winter.

Lack of water for hydropower?

Then the article warns about the lack of water for Seattle hydropower, and particularly the Ross Reservoir.   Turns out both rainfall and snowfall have been relatively healthy in the North Cascades this winter, and the reservoir level is now much higher than the previous year (see below).  I note that the Ross Reservoir almost filled last year (see below).

Seattle's power generation will have sufficient water!

Perhaps the writer of the Seattle Times scare piece should have checked the best long-term forecasts.   

Here is the latest prediction of summer precipitation from the best (European Center).  WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN Washington.  Normal for the rest.

The Seattle Times is failing our community, providing demonstrably false information regarding climate change.   Hyping and exaggerating climate threats.  

Providing such wrong information is hurting our community, resulting in very poor decision-making, including the waste of billions of dollars (e.g., the CCA).

A Very Wet March

This March has been very wet over the western side of Washington State.

How wet?  Read on.

At Bellingham (through March 29), it has been the wettest March of ALL TIME....going back to 1950... with roughly 6.5 inches.

No wonder that the I5 is closed just south of Bellingham due to landslides:

Seattle has had the sixth-wettest March since the late 1940s (below).  This is in stark contrast to the past several years.

The latest NOAA soil moisture analysis indicates that western Washington has the highest soil moisture in the nation.

What about the difference from normal of our current soil moisture?  Are these values unusual?  The following map shows the differences from normal (in mm).  Western Washington and the Cascades have wetter-than-normal soils.  

Tuesday will be dry, but another wet system will come in on Wednesday and early Thursday.

The forecast total through Friday morning shows substantial precipitation across the region, with the heaviest amounts exactly where they are needed over western Oregon.

And this system will be cool enough that substantial snow will fall over the Oregon Cascades, where it is really needed.

Good news for water resources and for those who like it damp:

Does Low Snowpack Increase the Chances of Washington State Wildfires?

You hear this all the time in the media and by climate advocacy groups:

A below-normal snowpack means enhanced wildfire danger in Washington State.

Some samples are shown below:

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The truth is that such claims are not true.   Snowpack variability has very little correlation with the area of local wildfires.

Other meteorological conditions are FAR more important than snowpack regarding wildfire acreage and the large wildfires in our region.

The facts are very clear.   To demonstrate the lack of relationship between snowpack and wildfire area, below is a plot of April 1 snowpack (the standard measure)--shown by the blue line-- and the annual acreage of burned area--red line-- for Washington State for 2002 to 2025.

You will notice very little correlation between the two lines.  Snowpack has ups and downs, perhaps a slight downward trend.  Wildfire acreage has wild excursions that generally are not associated with changes in snowpack.

Of the 24 years shown, only ONE (2015) had a combination of low snowpack and large wildfire area.  But it was NOT because of snowpack.

The year was unusual for other reasons, with a crazy, persistent summer ridge of high pressure over the region, that produced very anomalous high temperatures--something shown below, and lack of summer precipitation.  2015 was the hottest summer on record in our region.

The facts are very clear.   

Snowpack has very little to do with regional wildfires.   High temperature during the summer is a major contributor, since it contributes to drying of surface fuels.   High winds are a contributor to some of the biggest fires, since winds can fan and spread the flames, and can contribute to fire ignition (e.g, from wildfires).  Low summer relative humidity is a contributor.  Low summer precipitation can contribute since that leads to low fuel moisture.

Snowpack has little to do with our local wildfires.  During a normal year, the snowpack has generally melted by early summer over the lower to middle elevations where most wildfires occur. Remember, most of wildfire are in mid-summer to early fall.   Interestingly, above-normal snowfall can contribute to MORE wildfires if it provides moisture for more vegetative growth.  Vegetation that later dries and becomes flammable.

Why is the Seattle Times and others providing obviously false information to the public about snowpack and wildfire?  Even Google's AI knows better:

Our Reservoirs are Now Full, Months Ahead of Time

The recent rain has done something amazing:  filled many of our reservoirs to full, months ahead of time    

Levels of fill that normally require snowpack melt during spring.

Consider the all-important Yakima Reservoirs (below), which are now at levels normally only reached in mid-June.  Amazing.

In Seattle, the reservoir levels exceeded normal maximum levels in June, and they released some water to ensure sufficient capacity to handle flooding:

What about Spada Lake, the massive storage reservoir for Everett?  It is now full! (blue line is this year, brown line is full)

The Northwest River Forecast Center's predictions for local streamflow are getting more favorable for regional rivers, as illustrated by the 120-day prediction of streamflow for mid-summer (below),   Most are around 100% of normal

To provide a specific example, there is the extended forecast for the Yakima River.  Black is the predicted for this year.  Much above normal (green line) into May and near normal during mid-summer.

Bottom line:   I am cautiously optimistic about our Washington State water resources this summer and that there will be no drought.