More Good News Regarding Northwest Wildfires

The wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest is rapidly approaching the endgame, with huge declines during the past month.

To illustrate the profound change, consider the satellite-based wildfire observations for today versus one month ago (below).

Today,  there are only a handful of hot spots on the northeast side of the Cascades.  No apparent fires in Oregon.

A month ago, it was a different story with numerous and massive fires (mainly the result of lightning) in both states.

Air quality is good through most of the region today, with some very localized degradation near some of the smoldering fires.

A sharp drought of low pressure will move through over the weekend, mainly to the south of Washington.  

As a result, southern Washington State and Oregon will see substantial precipitation (see totals through Monday morning below).   Bad for fires.

And temperatures should be cooler than normal from Friday to next Wednesday (see below), which should help suppress fires as well.

Pretty confident that this is the endgame for Washington/Oregon fires this year.

In a future blog, I will make the case that 2026 was predominantly a grass/range wildfire year in the Northwest.  The quote on AI source:

In Oregon—which surpassed historical records with over 2.3 million acres burned—short grass and dry brush served as the primary fuel source for roughly 1.8 million of those acres

And something else.  This is turning into a very attenuated wildfire year for California, with this year possessing less than half of the average over the past five years (see below).  That could change, of course.

Seattle and Weather Disasters. We Can Do Better Than Los Angeles and New Orleans!

Weather prediction has become far more skillful in recent decades, with nearly all major regional weather/climate threats accurately predicted days in advance.  

Unfortunately, several major cities have not taken advantage of the profoundly more skillful forecasts, resulting in unnecessarily severe loss of life and property.

For example, Los Angeles experienced immense damage and many deaths from the 2025 wildfires, the result of a well-forecast Santa Ana wind event.

Los Angeles, January 2025

Thousands died in New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina, whose track was skillfully forecast several days before.

Seattle was caught unprepared for a well-predicted snowstorm in 2008, leading to a crippled city and the mayor being kicked out of office.  In 2022, the region was not prepared for a well-forecast freezing rainstorm.

I just published a paper on the topic: Excellent Forecasts but Poor Outcomes: Why Can’t We Do Better?

Seattle and the vicinity are vulnerable to well-forecast environmental threats, such as:

• Windstorms associated with Pacific cyclones
• Downslope windstorms descending the Cascades
• Snowstorms
• Ice storms 
• Wildfire smoke
• Coldwaves 
• Heatwaves
• Heavy rain and flooding

To deal with all these threats, Seattle should create an ENVIRONMENTAL WARNING SYSTEM.  

A system that would monitor the potential for such threats, provide online forecasts of their impacts, and push critical, site-specific information out to smartphones and other devices.

Here is a sample of what I am thinking of:

You could monitor on your mobile device or computer, or request a notification when a meteorological threat looms.  You could receive warnings and recommendations for personal actions to save lives or property.

Since your device knows your location, information and warnings could be specific to your position.

Some of you may know that the UW has already built components of such a system.   For example, there is Seattle SnowWatch:

And Seattle WindWatch:

To build a comprehensive environmental monitoring and forecasting system for Seattle, King County, or other locations is quite possible and could save many lives and prevent property damage.

If heavy rains were expected at your location, you could attend to drains and gutters, avoid sleeping in the basement, and evacuate potentially flooded areas.   Cities could bring in staff to clear drains.  

For cold waves, homeless folks could be required to move inside (there have been too many deaths in Seattle from exposure in the past several years).    For strong wind events, folks could avoid sleeping when trees could fall and prepare for outages.  City Light could pre-position crews and resources.

You get the idea. 

With highly skillful and site-specific warnings, society could make better decisions and greatly reduce the impacts of strong local weather events.  The number of people injured or killed by severe weather could be greatly reduced with the proper application of the amazing forecast skill available today.