How Unusual Was this Summer's Weather?

Now that we have entered fall, it is time to evaluate whether our summer weather was unusual.

Are summers getting warmer or drier in Washington State?

Starting with the overall view for the entire state, below is the July 1-Sept 26 precipitation difference from normal.  

A complex pattern.  The western slope of the Cascades (where there was little fire) was drier than normal, while the eastern slopes (with more fire than normal) were WETTER than normal.  

The majority of the state was near normal for temperature (light green or yellow below), with a few areas a bit above normal 

In short, not an exceptional summer period for temperature and precipitation.

What about the long-term trends in summer temperatures?   

Average daily temperatures have risen over the past 70 years at Hoquiam, Olympia, Yakima, and Spokane by about 2-3.5 F over the period.

In contrast, the trend in daily high (max) temperatures has been very small west of the Cascades, and about 4F at Yakima and 1°F at Spokane.

Finally, for precipitation, there is modest summer drying in the west and a small downward trend east of the Cascades.   But there is very little precipitation during the summer in any case.

Fortunately, there is no overall downward trend in annual precipitation, so the region should be ok with its water supply.

The bottom line of this blog.  

This summer was not that unusual for temperature and precipitation in Washington State (but there was an unusual lightning event in July).  

The region is slowly warming, although high temperature extremes are hardly changing.  Annual precipitation is steady, but our dry summers are getting slightly drier.  

Tens of Thousands Have Lost Power as a Strong Cyclone Makes Landfall

As the models predicted, a strong storm with powerful winds is moving across our region, and nearly 100,000 customers are without power as I write this blog.

The radar imagery has been stunning.  At 7:30 AM, a well-defined low center (red arrow) was on the coast near the Columbia River.

And by 10 AM, the low was moving inland

Maximum winds so far today (through 10 AM) have been substantial over northern Oregon and southern Washington, with many locations getting to 50 mph.   Up to 54 mph in Olympia and several reaching 70 mph.

Early-season strong winds inevitably mean lots of power outages, with trees being untested and still with lots of leaves.

Right now, at 11:30 AM, about 71,000 customers have lost power in Washington, with more in Oregon, and the event is not over.

The latest European Center forecast suggests the strong winds, and thus power outages, will remain south of downtown Seattle.

Finally, the winds last night at Mt. Rainier's slope around 10,000 ft (Camp Muir), with gusts up to 101 mph:

This is the result of the strong upper-level low associated with this storm (see map at 700 hPa pressure, about 10,000 ft, for this morning).  Not a good time for an ascent. 😁

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