Smoke Will Soon Exit Western Washington As the First Cool/Wet Weather System Approaches

 A thin layer of mainly California smoke is above Washington and Oregon right now, as evident by the latest visible satellite image (below).  Only Northwest Washington is smoke-free.

But as typical of smoke from distant fires, the smoky layer is aloft and air quality at the surface is quite good over the western lowlands, as shown by the AIRNOW website.

The smoke layer aloft has thinned considerably during the past 48h, something illustrated by the view of Mount Rainier from the Crystal Mountain Cam:

Onshore winds will increase during the next few days, and the result will be the removal of smoke both at the surface and aloft.  

Consider the HRRR model forecast for near-surface smoke on Thursday morning.  No smoke over the western WA and Oregon lowlands.  Fires in Washington and southern BC have faded after the cooler/wetter weather and the considerable efforts of firefighting crews. 

But then there is the approaching weather system....it will feel like the first taste of fall, with far cooler temperatures and rain.

But first, I should note the potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight over western WA and the north Cascades, showers associated with a passing upper level disturbance and unstable air.  The simulated infrared satellite image for 5 PM today is impressive!

The rain will hit on Friday, accompanied by a 10-15F drop in temperatures.   To give you an idea of the upcoming rainfall, here is the average of the excellent European Center ensemble of many forecasts for the total rainfall through 11 PM Sunday. Up to 1.5 inches in the mountains.

The UW model showing precipitation through  5 AM Monday also shows bountiful precipitation, particularly over the north Cascades and southern BC, both places where there are some remaining fires.  I expect rapid progress in attenuating these fires with such conditions.

The Seattle Times Hit Piece

I knew this was coming.  

The Seattle Times was upset that I noted problems with their hyped headline and story on the heatwave and they decided to do a personal hit piece on me.   Their story says everything about their attitudes towards science and truthful information.  The bias of the article was pretty obvious, with no attempt to quote the many individuals supporting my viewpoint or to deal with the issues I noted regarding the attribution report.  And then they went over the top, bringing in my comments in social media on completely different topics. 

Anyway, I will write a separate blog on the Seattle Times piece--very poor journalism that demonstrated, better than I ever could, their lack of commitment for communicating the facts and uncertainties regarding global warming.

Global warming is a serious issue that can only be dealt with by a well-informed citizenry.   The Seattle Times has a different view, pushing a politically charged, biased narrative,  that deviates from the best science that in the end will leave our region less prepared for dealing with climate change.  And one that needlessly gives people a sense of doom and desperation.

A few people reminded me of a relevant piece of wisdom:

"When you are receiving flak, you are over the target"

Smoke Moves in Aloft, But Precipitation Fell Exactly Where We Needed It

Wildfire smoke from distant fires has now moved in aloft above western Washington, pushed by southerly and southeasterly flow aloft.

The sky again has that hazy look, with the sun taking on orange and red hues.

But air quality remains good near the surface west of the Cascade crest.

The view from Crystal Mountain towards Mount Rainier says it all.  Below is this morning versus July 19th.  Wow.  I'm glad I did my hiking last Sunday.

The NOAA HRRR model shows the forecast smoke over the region around noon.  Red indicates fairly high levels.

But the smoke is staying aloft over western Washington, something shown by an east-west vertical cross section of smoke at the same time.  Not so good at the surface east of the Cascade crest.

Yesterday and overnight some VERY welcome rain fell over the Cascades and northeast Washington...as much as a quarter of an inch (see 24-h totals below).  EXACTLY where we needed it to lessen the wildfire threat (click to expand).

And with all the clouds and smoke hanging around, eastern Washington is RADICALLY cooler today, with some locations 25F cooler than yesterday (the maps shows the 24- temperature change between today and yesterday)

Wildfire threat is way down and this gives firefighters a chance to gain an upper hand.

Finally, the models are converging together on the cool/rainy period starting on Thursday....a period that should greatly lessen the wildfire threat for weeks.

Take a look at the 48-h total precipitation ending 5 AM Sunday.  Unbelievably wet, with some areas getting over 2 inches of rain.  If this verifies, the fires near Winthrop and southern BC will get radically knocked back.  

All and all, a very favorable situation.