After a relatively smoke-free summer, the region is now engulfed in smoke from a series of fires caused by dry lightning. Fortunately, major changes are coming, including cooler temperatures and precipitation that should decrease the smoke during the next few weeks.
The visible satellite image this morning was stunning (see below), with much of eastern Washington in smoke, some of it moving aloft across the Cascades into western Washington.
We can see the fires from satellites, and the satellite imagery from last night is shown below (red dots). The Bear Creek fire is not evident (it is just smoldering), but several fires are apparent east of the Cascade crest. Unusually few fires in California. It has been a very low fire year so far to the south of us.
The eastern WA fires have degraded air quality there (see Purple Air map this morning, red and purple are the bad air locations). With most of the smoke aloft, western Washington generally has decent air quality, with the worst around Bellingham.
Temperatures will greatly decline on BOTH sides of the Cascades to normal levels as shown by the forecast at Seattle and Pasco below.
The most interesting challenge during the next few days is the potential for thunderstorms, which could start rolling in tomorrow and will continue over the weekend.
To illustrate, below is the simulated radar imagery from the ultra-high resolution UW weather model.
For Friday at 5 PM, a major area of thunderstorms/convection is over Oregon.
For Saturday at the same time, Oregon thunderstorms, plus some getting into Washington, on both sides.
Such thunderstorms will bring rain and the potential to start a few more fires where dry lightning occurs. Will talk more about such issues in my next blog.
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Announcement
I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters. Will answer questions and talk in detail about the end of summer and the wildfire situation.
Let pumpkin spice weather effervescent and we’ll be marinating in gloom sooner than later until at least april
ReplyDeleteCooler and less muggy today than yesterday with better air quality. It may be the case that the smoke remains aloft due to the temperature inversion (it is nearly 20 degrees warmer at the ski area than in town at present). No indication of substantial/dry season-ending precipitation for the foreseeable future, though.
ReplyDeleteThe current dry lightning and fire outbreak is very similar to the August 1970 fires that I experienced as a fire weather forecaster at Wenatchee that year. That 1970 episode was also a nocturnal lightning event with little rain and it started many fires in about the same area of the Cascades as this one. One major difference may be that the 1970 outbreak was followed by a couple periods of stronger westerly winds which ended up spreading those fires to over 100,000 acres. It does not look like we will get a dry westerly flow on the current fires and with cooler, more moist air expected in a few days, there may not be as large a loss. However, the fact that these fires are still spreading rather quickly without significant wind, indicates how dry the fuels are this year. Finally, we may have to acknowledge that the Seattle Times and other organizations that predicted a bad fire year for this year, were correct, at least for Washington State.
ReplyDeleteWinds were important last night..with strong westerlies revving up the fire near Wenatchee. This is not a bad fire year....and fire area is still below normal. The fires we had are generally small. No megafires....
DeleteWxman, what is your definition of bad? We have better chance of burning the least amount of acres in over a decade than having to admit seattle times was "right". You have to admit Cliff has been right about fuel load and his predictions thus far. Intial attacks have knocked fires down quickly due to it. While you diagreed with him everytime, saying he is wrong. However, his stance was based on fact, your was on gut feelings, i guess. Cause if you looked at the numbers you would know that your statement was not true.
DeleteNot a bad fire year? There are families being evacuated right now near Leavenworth per My Northwest. I guess you ask them.
DeleteFire acreage is still below normal. There are some fires every year. By your definition, EVERY year is a bad fire year..
DeleteYep. Also price have to pay to live in "paradise". As urban sprawl spreads, the more will see this. Dont know if cliff will let my comment to wxman go through, but he worked during time with more logging, which meant more access to "hard to access fires". And fire fighters could/would engange even in most dangerous of circumstances. As we put human life over property more, which is a good thing, you see fires managed way different. Indirect lines majority of plans, as its too dangerous to put firefighters on direct line to save some trees or a house even ect. I was volunteer firefighter for years, put life on line for poroperty more than care to discuss, but its different now. Not saying firefighters dont put themselves in danger to save life or property, but it is not to same degree it used to be. I am fine with that, either we manage forests to negate or we pay more insurance or pay consequnces to not have any insurance because they wont cover. People have the choice. Lost a dear friend putting his life on line for a shop of property owner. Sept 1 2019. BE FIRE WISE GIVE FIREFIGHTERS A FIGHTING CHANCE! DONT EXPECT THEM TO GIVE UP LIFE FOR MATERIAL THINGS!
DeleteI agree with Budd that firefighters should not be risking their lives to save structures or trees, although my wish is for my tax money to go to trying to protect the beautiful forests we have rather than structures people decide to build in fire-prone areas. My issue with Cliff about the severity of a fire season boils down to acres burned compared to what he defines as normal. His normal is the average for the recent 15 years or so, which have mostly been large burn years. I am sure that if this fire data were available for Washington back through the 1900s, you would find that these recent years have had quite a bit more acreage burned than the years prior to 2000, at least back to the 1930s. If you check the statistics for Oregon, which is available back to the early 1900s and is probably generally representative of Washington, they show that acres burned in the recent years of this century are several times greater than similar time periods prior to 2000, at least back to the 1930s. Currently we have about half a dozen fires in Eastern Washington that qualify as project fires. I remember only one year since 1963, up to 2000, that we had as many as 6 project fires going at the same time, that in 1970. These fires include the Pomas fire started early in the season in the high mountain area in the Entiat valley, and the two-month old Bear Gulch fire, the largest fire in the Olympic Peninsula since 1951 both of which are still burning. So yes, I consider this a bad fire year, maybe not so much compared to recent years but with those I have experienced during most of my time in this area.
DeleteIs the Seattle smoke coming from Canada? It seems like the fires in Eastern Washington are too tiny to create much smoke. Even the Idaho fires are either small or smoldering (Elkhorn). In contrast it seems like there are a bunch of big fires in the middle of BC.
ReplyDeleteWe've been using Purpleair.com to find hiking trails were the air quality is still good. Today we went to Point Defiance Park. AQI only 20. Just a few miles east from there the AQI was 80-100. Whidbey Island and Anacortes have also been good. Of course a small change in wind direction could change that in an instant.
ReplyDeleteAll I know is the sun was very filtered this morning in Tacoma, now it just looks like clouds with some smoke, little sun if any and temps still upper 70's. Forecast was to be 80/81 today, similar for tomorrow before the cool down.
ReplyDeleteLooking for the weather change to begin.
Let's hope this time the precip puts out the fires. The rain that came last month was pretty heavy for August but failed to extinguish Bear Gulch. One question, has the relatively high humidity on the west side helped to keep the fires from spreading explosively?
ReplyDeleteCurrent cumulative area of active fires in the state stands at about 60,000, most on the east side and caused by lightning. Resources are pretty much tapped out, and a good westerly push like the one forecasted for Sunday could expand those fires several times. Fortunately, the westerly push should be followed by lower temps and higher humidities according to the NWS forecast discussion. We will see if the upcoming westerlies are strong enough to make these fires destructive to property.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the discussion of the current fire situation, it might be helpful if a review of the synoptic weather pattern prior to and during the 1970 fire bust were to be undertaken. Would you be able to do that, Cliff?
ReplyDelete