August 13, 2025

Extraordinary Dual Wildfire Smoke Plumes

In ancient Rome, gladiators would face the crowd and say, "We who are about to die salute you".

Today, we have the meteorological version of this.

Look at the visible satellite image this morning.  There are two west-to-east smoke plumes, hundreds of miles long.

One originates on the Olympic Peninsula (the Bear Gulch Fire) and the other on Vancouver Island (Port Alberni fire) 


Neither fire was that large.....they are NOT megafires (sorry Seattle Times and NY Times).  Each is around 5000 acres.  

But they are smokers, burning in areas that have been logged with lots of  flammable debris on the ground (see example near the Port Alberni fire)


Fortunately, the days of these fires are numbered.  

As mentioned in my last blog, heavy rain is coming to the coastal mountains.    

Below is the current forecast precipitation total through Saturday at 5 PM.  Three to five inches of rain on west-facing slopes.    Substantial rain over eastern Washington.

A less-than-average wildfire season so far is going to end that way.


August 12, 2025

Rapid Cooling, Heavy Rain, And Near Record River Levels

 Today may be the last day you will need air conditioning this summer in western Washington.

And fears of wildfires west of the Cascade crest should fade as well.

Heavy rain is coming to western Washington, accompanied by dramatically cooler temperatures.

When I plotted the predicted accumulated rainfall through Saturday morning from the UW model forecast, I could hardly believe my eyes (see below).  

Was the mid-August or September?

2-5 inches of rain on the western slopes of the mountains....wow.  Enough to radically reduce subsequent wildfire threats for much of the region.


Importantly, lots of rain will push into eastern Washington.

Several western Washington rivers will surge to near record levels (for this time of the year).   For example, the flow of the Snoqualmie River will jump dramatically, near the red markers showing the previous daily records.

The level of the Skohomish River, not far from the Bear Gulch fire, will surge upwards as well due to the heavy rain on the Olympics.


If this is not shocking enough, check out the predicted temperatures from the NOAA/NWS GFS model for Seattle.

Low 90s today, Low 70s tomorrow.   But the shocker is Friday.  HIGHS in the low 60s.  Stunning.

I have a lot riding on this cool forecast.  My 20-year-old AC unit failed today.  Surely it knew that it would not be needed again this season.  And my vegetable garden looks very sad from the warm, dry weather.  This will help.



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