Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Nowcast at 4 PM

I really wish I had the coastal radar right now, it would have been a huge help to determine exactly what is going on and what will happen over the next few hours. September we will have it.

It looks like the rush hour will NOT be seriously impacted by snow. At 4 PM, it is snowing at Quillayute and Astoria, with only very light snow flurries over some locations in western Washington interior. The snow falling out of the cloud deck is light and most of it is sublimating before it reaches the surface. Strong easterly flow is really evaporating the moisture over Seattle and eastern suburbs (see radar). This will provide considerable protection from accumulating snow.

The radar is still in clear air mode and the intensities are very light. It is not even snowing at Hoquiam....a key upwind station from Seattle. It has started to snow at Westport, so it is starting to move in slowly. No snow reports over western Washington away from the coast except for northern Orcas Is.

Bottom line: you don't have to rush anywhere if you are living in western Washington outside of the far northern sections. No imminent significant snow for next two hours in the central interior (ie Puget Sound). The satellite suggests a more intense band offshore that would come in during the evening...but can't be sure. At the same time it is warming aloft as we speak. Stay at work. Enjoy happy hour. WSDOT doesn't need to be concerned about a rush-hour mess. At this point the high-res models seem to be doing well here.

This nowcast can be interactive....if you experience significant snow, leave a brief comment.

59 comments:

Martin said...

No snow in Issaquah - and I'm guessing it's just going to rain.

Thanks for the nowcast. Great.

rainrunner said...

I feel so let down :(

Gary said...

Exactly the right information at the right time; thanks so much, Cliff!

Christopher said...

4:20. Radar shows a large mass of green over the San Juans and lower Vancouver Island, but I just stepped out (west side of San Juan Island) and nothing is reaching the ground in any form. Outside temp 37.6.

Josh said...

Updated forecast calls for 21-27 inches at Baker overnight?! Here's to hoping that actually happens!

Michael said...

Cliff

At present on Orcas Island, we have light snow falling, perhaps 1/8 to 1/4 accumulation.

Scrapycandy said...

Thank you...I'll let my husband know.

Sean said...

Cliff:
Long Beach is reporting light rain and 33 degree with calm wind at 4;18P

cgt said...

Nothing happening here in Bellingham as of 4:30pm. Calm wind, temperature 33. 1.5'' of snow on ground from last week.

Chris and Amy's story said...

No snow in Mt Vernon. I left work early but I don't think I needed to - it hasn't snowed yet up here.

Paul said...

Very helpful. Thanks for your work.

Paul Middents

Kenna Wickman said...

When they refer to the "Hood Canal Area" - does that include all of Kitsap County? Or mostly near Seabeck down to Shelton (which isn't on Hood Canal actually)?

Capilet said...

It is just cold in Factoria(South Bellevue), no precipitation I can see from the office. Will add notes about Sammammish when I get home in an hour or so.

Thank you so much for the nowcast!

Rootmachine said...

Snow moving across Bellingham Bay. Starting to snow in Fairhaven

Steve A. said...

Tukwila - 4:40pm. Zero precipitation, 38.3 degrees.

Steve said...

Light snow just beginning to fall to the east of shelton at 4:50

maybe said...

Its snowing in Bellingham now @ 4:40

maybe said...

Its snowing in Bellingham as of 4:40 PM

Ian said...

I was wondering how many variables such as winds aloft, surface temperatures, etc. are entered into the models and what sort of computer computations are used in the different modeling runs for this type of event.

Thank you for great learning opportunity.

joe breskin said...

Thanks. This is totally cool. About 15 years ago I tried to get a system built to use rural highschool kids and touchtone phones (and geolocated rainguages) to enter weather data for a year or two and thus create a really accurate and detailed local weather map. Teachers unfortunately directed the money into something that left nothing useful (except maybe something the kids remember). But we could do something akin to that so easily now, using googleearth ...

maybe said...

Now snowing in Bellingham

Lee said...

There is light snow in Bellingham, started about 1/2 hour ago.

SkunkBayWeather said...

Temperature has dropped from 38 to 35 in the last couple of hours here in Hansville (North Kitsap). Cliff, your UofW probability forecast had us predicted with a high of 38 and low of 33. At this rate, it looks like you nailed it. No snow yet, but it sure feels like it. I do have a low light resolution (cheap) webcam on my site (www.SkunkBayWeather.com) that is backlit. It shows snow fairly well in the dark, for those interested.

David said...

light snow olympia started about 4:30

Steve said...

Snow has really picked up in shelton

cornbread said...

Light fine snow in Bellingham started about 4:30.

scepter1 said...

Snowing lightly on western Harstine Island.

scepter1 said...

Light snow on western Harstine Island (Mason county.)

Tammy said...

Hey Cliff, it's been snowing in North Hoquiam since 2:30 this afternoon, starting to stick this past hour. I just went out & took this picture for you.
http://twitpic.com/3p82z8

Rose said...

It's 5:36 and I'm at Greenlake. I don't even think the temp is below 40, if so, not much below. I seriously doubt there will be snow around here.

Phil & said...

Nothing on Beacon Hill at 1730... no snow... no restaurants, no entertainment :)

Sabine said...

It's just started to snow lightly in Bellingham.
Nowcast is a great idea!

Chris said...

this is great info, although I am SO disappointed we are not having a major weather event, I do so love the inane 'live at 5' on the spot weather news.

Nickolett said...

Just starting to lightly snow in (west) Port Orchard.

runway12 said...

Light snow now in Ruston(Tacoma). Also a big shift in the wind from east to southwest.

Great idea on the nowcast Cliff.

Ian said...

Still nary a flake here in Sequim, but that's really no surprise.

Stuff appears to be happening in the Portland area.

Kenna, 'Hood Canal area' varies according to each storm (intensity/track/moisture). Seabeck and Brinnon down to Hoodsport is the most prone to snow but it can also reach down to Shelton and up to Poulsbo and sometimes Bremerton. In the winter of 2006-07 we had accumulating snow of 1" or more 10 times on a high ridgetop west of Poulsbo where I was keeping some plants.

LADunkin said...

I started mapping the snow sightings based on the comments here. Feel free to add to the map as more snow sightings come in.

http://tinyurl.com/4jx38zc

Mr. Bates said...

Thanks for keeping us updated in Redmond. I work in North Bend and it was bitterly cold there today as the winds took the temperatures down sharply. I hope my son's new worm bin survives the rain and wind of the next 24 hours.

Will said...

No snow in Bellingham (I'm near Whatcom CC).. a few flurries but nothing yet.

Andrew said...

Snowing 'like a blizzard' in Forks!

mig said...

It's snowing and 36 degrees in Tacoma's North Slope neighborhood.

Gawdger said...

6:35 Snow is starting in West Seattle (Arbor Heights). Avg flake size and low moisture content.

D Zeus said...

Just started snowing in Port Angeles (Central Strait of Juan De Fuca), 6 pm. Roads are frozen so it's sticking. Temp at my house (400 feet elevation) is 29 degrees. I love snow!

Steve said...

Light snow on Capitol Hill in Seattle.

Leif Jackson said...

Weird how the doppler radar has shown my area (Ballard) get taken over by green, then pink, then blue. But I have not seen flake number one.

shapesnpatterns said...

have comments been turned off? bummer! Thanks for the informative posts though...

Gentian said...

snowing in Port Townsend at 7 pm

SilentSeven said...

Flurries starting now in South Bellevue near Bellevue Community College.

John VanLeer said...

7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

John VanLeer said...

7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

John VanLeer said...

7:13 PM: First flurries in Lake City (N. Seattle).

JeffH said...

Wind picking up here in Sammamish at 7:00pm S/SE 5-8 mph. No precip and temps around 35F.
'NowCast' on snow/ice event days ... brilliant! Now we just need the mobile app ...

Kiirekass said...

Sideways snow recently started due to the almost ever present winter winds here in Maple Valley.

Ken said...

Moderate snow in downtown Kirkland, just a few blocks from Lake Washington.

matthew said...

snowing in edmonds started about 830

Steve said...

Still moderate to at times heavy snow in shelton

Michael said...

1-2 inches in Bryant. Great snowball material! If it wasn't so late, I'd have the kids out making a snowman

David Cuthbert said...

Regarding that coastal radar: After it's installed, can you show us comparison pictures of the radar imagery with and without it during a similar event this fall? (That is, what we get today vs. today's radar merged with the coastal radar.) It'd be neat to see how much help it is firsthand.

Portia said...

It's 1:45 am and now the snow is so wet it's hardly snow. And not much quantity. Over here just east of I-5 across from the U-District, I have just measured an even 4 inches on my back deck. Bonne nuit.