For those worried about below-normal mountain snow, your worries are over..... a major snow dump is ahead.
You can also expect great skiing, and there could be some travel delays in the mountain passes.
Today, the Seattle NWS office noted the snowy threat....and they are right.
Let's do exactly that.
For the period ending Sunday at 11 AM, the European Center snowfall total is impressive, reaching 4-5 feet. You read that right. 5 feet.
The U.S. model has similar depths for that period.
Next, let's look at the ensemble of many snow forecasts at Stampede Pass (on the drier side of the Cascades) from the UW WRF model (only for the initial period through Thursday morning)--see below.
All the forecasts are calling for snow, which is steadily accumulating at that location. We can have some confidence that substantial snow will fall there.
Now, let's turn to the latest run of the high-resolution UW WRF model. Below are the snowfall totals through Thursday at 11 AM. Up to three feet in the mountains!
Note there are a few areas of VERY, VERY light snow reaching near sea level. This represents a few flakes mixed into the rain.
Temperatures will be relatively cool on Thursday morning at 4 AM, with very low freezing levels. Here is a forecast map of the temperature around 2500 ft. White and blue indicate below-freezing temperatures. Precipitation will obviously be snow at that level (2500 ft) for the entire region, melting as it approaches sea level.
I don't want to hype this (I don't run a YouTube channel 😋), but just don't be surprised to see some flakes on Thursday morning if you are near sea level. The mountains will be hit hard...pretty much guaranteed.
Thanks for the heads up! Always appreciated!
ReplyDeleteHey Cliff! I'd love to learn the nuanced details of why there's such a large rain shadow over the lower Kittitas Valley/Ellensburg area. I'm just east of Ellensburg at about 1700ft elevation. There's storm warnings for the hills 3 miles north, 5 miles east, and 8 miles SW of me, but it's showing nothing or basically a trace of snow for us here in lower valley.
ReplyDeleteWe are only about 150 to 200ft lower elevation than Cle Elum which is expecting to get a ton of snow.
Can you help me learn the details about what meteorological reason is for the lack of snow here in Ellensburg/Lower Kittitas County area for this storm? Thanks!
Really hoping we get some significant snowfall at the lower Puget Sound elevations this winter...
ReplyDeleteI'll be awake and showering, getting ready for work at that hour but leave the house in Tacoma at 6pm or so, so could be driving in a few flakes. It was wet coming home today, though nothing major, just light rain.
ReplyDeleteWhile snow is guaranteed is it enough to wipe away my concerns of low snow pack? That seems unlikely, and along the lines of the hyperbolic statements that you normally detest. The snow year is far from over and one large storm isn’t likely to fox our position, just make it less bad
ReplyDelete