Monday, December 9, 2013

Homeward Commute Weather: No Problem.

 I will do an update at 9:30 PM for tomorrow's commute....cliff

I am totally unimpressed with the precipitation coming in later this afternoon.

First, it will be cold enough for snow later this afternoon and early this evening.  Forget the talk of freezing rain.  The roads are cold.   The atmosphere is too cold.  No icing threat in the early to late evening.

What about precipitation?  There is hardly any in the western interior.  Here is the latest radar image (1213 PM) A few snow showers on the coast.  There has been some on and off light snow at Quillayute and Hoquiam.   Virtually nothing getting past the Olympics...these are very shallow showers.


The NOAA Rapid Refresh and HRRR models have pretty much nothing over us through commute time.  Here is the accumulated snowfall through 4 AM from the Rapid Refresh.  Nothing over Puget Sound.

The latest NWS NAM model has a few light snow showers coming in.  The accumulated precipitation from the latest (10 AM) run of NAM has nothing over Puget Sound if you look closely (bad graphics unfortunately).


Satellite imagery:  completely unimpressive.  A weak band to the north of us.  No organized circulation approaching us over the Pacific.



Bottom line:  homeward commute is no problem.  At worst you might see a few snow flurries.  With cold roads and no freezing rain, there won't be an ice problem.   Watch the radar (here is a good place) if you want to follow the situation in real time.

Several models have the precipitation picking up a bit over night...but still light.  Seattle and central Puget Sound and Kitsap will be heavily rain shadowed (snow shadowed).   Some light snow from northern King County into Snohomish County and south of Tacoma is possible but light is the operative word...less than an inch.   North Seattle might get a dusting.  This is not a serious snow event if you believe the current models.  There is a bit of hyping going around...but no names here.

 Along the coast where there has been some occasional snow showers.



Are you in venture capital/private equity and have an office in the Bay Area, or knows someone who does?
If so, I have a question for you. Please send me an email (cmass at uw.edu) ....thanks, cliff

9 comments:

Jim Terry said...

Thanks for the nowcast Cliff. here 3 miles NNE of Monroe I'm getting a very light flurry - shows up a little on the NWS radar - looks like a convergence zone from Vancouver Island!

The Drennans said...

Any convergence zones getting enough on the ground to actually see?

Jeffrey Jacka said...

Hey Cliff. When are we going to get some snow up at Snoqualmie? Feel like I am going crazy waiting.

Donogh Homes said...

Great report Cliff, some media outlets are reporting ice-mageddon!

If rain falls tomorrow afternoon will it freeze on the cold ground, or will the ground warm up to fast?

Submit a book said...

Cliff,

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Cheers

JM

windlover said...

Oh..someone with common sense! Seriously? ALL of the media outlets are totally hyping this up! They keep saying most areas will get at least a light dusting and some areas close to an inch. But, looking at the radar there is NOTHING over western Wa. except for an extremely small amount near the coast which seems to dissipate rather quickly. Either there's something out there that can't be seen by radar that they somehow know about, then I say we're getting nothin'!!! Bummer too...I work at our local school and I was really hoping for a 2 hour late start! Oh, well....it is still fall. Maybe winter will bring something more promising in the way of snow. Thanks for keeping it real Cliff!

Corie said...

Snowing in West Oly.

Does anyone know what is going on with the NOAA site and their thermometers? The 3 day data page has been very erratic..jumping 20 degrees one minute and then dropping back again in a few minutes later. It is snowing hard yet the NOAA site says we are at 40 degrees....

Lucie Khadduri said...

Quick dusting of snow here in south Olympia, despite no radar echos.

dude29 said...

I'm not a fan of cold weather unless it comes with snow, preferably lots of it. Cold temps without snow is a waste of cold temps. I realize that people have to drive in it and I admittedly don't do much driving as it is, so I understand that others will think I'm nuts for wanting lots of snow, but I love snow and we haven't had any in nearly two years now.