Sunday, May 25, 2014

Updated Memorial Day Weekend Forecast and Paradise Snow

Many of you have outdoor plans this weekend, so here is the latest weather forecast.

There is substantial cloudiness over Washington State this morning, particularly along the coast the northern half (see vissble satellite picture below at around 9AM Sunday).  Clouds thin over southern Washington and Oregon, with substantial upper-level cloudiness.


The current radar image shows rain offshore (invisible without the Langley radar!) and stretching to the U.S./Canadian border).  Raid is being observed now at Bellingham, Orcas Island and on the northern WA coast. A few light showers are moving into the interior, but they are very light and most of the precipitation will not reach the surface.


The latest National Weather Service forecast for today (Sunday) shows temps getting into the 70s over eastern Oregon/Washington and in the Willamette Valley, and far cooler over coastal Washington.


So today (through around 4 PM) will be decent away from the coast and NW Washington.  S

But then thing go downhill fast later today and Monday--so be prepared.  Let me show you the 3-h rainfall ending at certain times from the UW WRF model.  First 2 PM today (Sunday).  Light rain over NW WA and southern BC.


The 3-h rain ending 8 PM Sunday  shows rain, some heavy, pushing inland into Seattle to Portland.  Barbecue and picnic advice:  DO IT EARLY or WATCH THE WEATHER RADAR.

 Another pulse of precipitation comes in on Monday associated with an upper level trough.  Here is the 3-h precipitation ending 8 AM Monday.
 And 5 PM Monday.  It won't rain all day, but there will be several band of precipitation moving through and temperatures will be 5-10F cooler in many places. See NWS forecast below.



If  you want to plan your activities in real time, an excellent radar summary map is provided by my department (and shown above).  You can access it here.  Or get a radar app for your smartphone.  Many "professionals" use radarscope.

Yesterday I was cross country skiing with some friends at Paradise on Mount Rainier.  LOTS of snow there (see image).


The snow depths there are well above average.  Here is a plot of the cumulative precipitation and amount of water in the snow (SWE or snow water equivalent) at Paradise (the NRCS Snotel).  The light blue is the snow water (SWE) for an average year and the dark blue for this year.  We are well above normal!   So if want to play in snow, there is still plenty around Paradise.


1 comment:

Lowell Skoog said...

This morning (Memorial Day) the NWS forecast discussion for Seattle says this:

.CLIMATE...THE RAINFALL TOTAL AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT WAS 0.22
INCHES SUNDAY. THIS MAKES THE RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST
22.87 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE WETTEST FEBRUARY
THROUGH JULY IN SEATTLE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 22.81 INCHES SET IN
1972. FELTON/MCDONNAL

Can that be true? We broke the record for a six month period in just four months? Wow.