Godzilla El Nino Versus The BLOB: Who Will Win?

Environmental monster match-ups are familiar to many of you.

For example, who could forget Godzilla versus Hedorah, The Smog Monster?

And then there was the remarkable battle between Godzilla and the storm-producing Mothra

But many are enthralled with the outcome of the latest super-monster battle, this time a real one:

Godzilla El Nino versus The  Pacific Blob

The media is covering this battle with substantial attention, with headlines bannering the conflict in many outlets:

OK, let's deal with the big question.  Will Godzilla El Nino and the BLOB battle each other?   Or will they combine forces to produce the warmest period in NW history?  Or the stormiest?

Much is riding on this conflict and this blog will consider the potential outcome.

The Match-Up

On one hand, one of the strongest El Ninos in decades is developing, the Godzilla El Nino.    NOAA is so sure about its effects this winter that it is going for a 90% chance of a strong El Nino, which would make the Northwest warmer than normal, slightly drier than normal, with roughly 20-30% less snowpack than normal in the mountains.

El Ninos are associated with warmer than normal water in the central/eastern tropical Pacific and along our immediate coast.

Then there is the BLOB, the name affectionately given to an area of warm warm over the northeast Pacific.  There is strong evidence that the BLOB has warmed surface temperatures over the Northwest by 2-4C over the past year, contributing to our record high temperatures and lack of snow.

Together, will they destroy Northwest snow and normal weather?  Bring another torrid winter in our region?   Terminate our ski industry?

I suspect I know what will happen.

They will NOT combine forces.  They will fight,  and one will win.

Godzilla  

Just like in the movies,  Godzilla will become our ally.  And it makes sense that the mighty Godzilla will prevail.

Let me tell you why.

The BLOB, as documented in a nice paper by State Climatologist Nick Bond and colleagues was the stepchild of a huge area of high pressure along and east of the West Coast of the U.S.  High pressure resulted in less wind and mixing of the upper ocean layers, leading to reducing mixing of cooler sub-surface water to the surface.  Thus, the ocean surface was warmer than normal.  

The anomalous high pressure also resulted in less movement of cooler Pacific waters from the north.  Weaker cold advection in technical terms.

Here is an example of the sea surface temperature (actually the difference from normal, or the anomaly) associated with the BLOB.  BLOB is warm.

But now El Nino is forming...and not just any El Nino...a SUPER GODZILLA El Nino.    The warm waters over the central and eastern tropical Pacific associated with El Nino have a big impact on the global atmosphere, alternating the global circulation.  Let me show you.

Here is the typical sea level pressure anomaly associated with El Nino (the difference of pressure from normal).   Pressures are LOWER THAN NORMAL over the eastern Pacific (purple colors).  A BLOB KILLER.  Why?  Because it is exactly opposite of the pattern that produced the BLOB--- high pressure in the same area.

What do our latest seasonal forecast models predict?  Let me show you.

Here is the predicted sea surface temperatures for this winter.  A narrow zone of warm water immediately off our coast (which is typical of El Ninos), but no BLOB.  In fact, cooler than normal waters offshore.  You can see the very warm water over the central and eastern tropical Pacific...a sign of a powerful El Nino.

We are already seeing evidence of these changes.  The water in the central Pacific is cooling.  The ridge of high pressure over us has weakened and high pressure has established itself over the central Pacific.  Precipitation is increasing over our area.

And there are other signs in the sky that suggest my hypothesis is correct....

The BLOB is vulnerable.  And I believe that Godzilla El Nino will destroy it.  Nature is cruel.

What does that mean for our weather?  A strong  El Nino bring modestly warmer than normal temperatures, with a snowpack about 20% below normal.  Much better than last winter.  The correlation with Northwest precipitation is weak.  Less lowland snow and fewer major storms.  Enhanced precipitation over southern/central California.

In short, far more normal conditions than the weird weather we have experienced during the last year.  Our region should rejoice in Godzilla El Nino's strength.  But deep down we will be sad for the vanquished BLOB.