March 05, 2021

New Podcast: Why U.S. Numerical Prediction is Lagging and the Weekend Forecast

My podcast takes on a critical weather issue:  the lagging of global weather prediction behind those of the European Center and others.  What is the essential reason why the U.S., with the largest weather research community in the world and the largest spending on weather prediction of any nation, is now in third or fourth place in numerical weather prediction?

And this podcast also provides the weekend weather forecast, with Saturday being the best day for most.  But sun and warmth are promised later in the week!

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  1. If the European Center predictions are of higher quality than existing US modeling technology, why don't we save some tax payer money and simply use the European prediction model and stop griping about it?

    1. Weather forecasting has many military applications. I wonder if the DOD has systems that we do not have access to...but generally speaking I do not understand why we need to build another system if one is already functional. Why not join as a team?

    2. Is it the military that drives this seemingly nutty idea of having to "beat" the Europeans on this? The weather knows no political borders. Why not pool our resources and make it one global effort? I don't get it.

  2. Fascinating podcast as always. It’s quite sobering how the U.S. has fallen behind and how daunting the challenges are to fixing the problem. I want us to fix the problem and get back on top. But, in lieu of that, what if we were simply to use the European model instead of the American model—at least until we get this solved? That said, solving the problem will be difficult. There are so many constituencies out there asking for research funding, and each member of congress wants to bring the pork to his or her own district. Our very system is set up to spread the resources thinly, rather than to work in concert. I hope we can move forward, but how? Thank you again for a provocative podcast.


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