September 30, 2022

How has hurricane prediction skill changed? And a very warm, dry weekend ahead.

There has been a great deal of interest in hurricane prediction this week with the landfall of Hurricane Ian, so this week's podcast discusses progress in hurricane forecasting. 

The story is a nuanced one.  Hurricane track prediction has gotten much better over the past decades, with position errors at 72h decreasing by roughly 75%! (see below)

But on the other hand, the intensity forecasts, although improved, have not advanced anywhere as much as the track predictions (see below).

In my podcast, I explain why the difference in skill between track and intensity forecasts, telling you about some of the challenges.

And I also talk about the forecast for Hurricane Ina.  The European Center and UKMET office models did far better than the U.S. model for the 3-6 day forecast, but amazingly BOTH forecast a major storm in the area NEARLY TEN DAYS OUT (see below for the proof).

US Model 20 day forecast

European Model 9 days out

And in the first segment, I provide the forecast. Warm, dry, and nearly perfect for any outdoor activity. Yes, this is one of the warmest, driest early falls on record.

And it is not over yet.  Details in the podcast.

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  1. To add to the great forecast, I'll add the warm days and cool nights are perfect for ripening the good winegrape crop this year.

    1. But I'll bet you are having the water them a heck of a lot.

  2. Air registers unhealthy this morning?

  3. I tried watering the garden less than last year. Now even native plants are suffering. Rhodys wilted, and my vine maple went brown without going through the usual fall color. Absolutely arid. And what happened to Tuesday's promise of rain? It has been taken out of the forecast.


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