Is Washington State REALLY In a Drought Emergency?

On Tuesday, the Washington State Department of Ecology declared a DROUGHT EMERGENCY for nearly the entire state (see map below).

As I will describe below, this really doesn't make sense.  Facts on the ground, meteorological observations, and common sense suggest that this declaration is simply wrong.  

But you decide after reviewing the facts.

If you look at the map, one bizarre feature is evident:  there is no drought emergency from Everett to Tacoma, which encompasses roughly 65% of the State's population.  

How can this be?   The weather systems controlling our weather encompass large sections of the state and meteorologically nothing special has been observed in that tiny metropolitan corridor.

 

Another strange observation is that this map is FAR more aggressive with drought than the perpetually drought-crazy NOAA/USDA Drought Monitor graphic (below).  The Federal Drought Monitor has NO dry conditions over more than half the State.  Drought conditions are only claimed for perhaps 20% of the state.

Why is a state agency putting out drought information in contraction to the Federal numbers?

 

As I will show below, the state has had only slightly below-normal precipitation this winter and the current snowpack is about 65% of normal.   The forecast impacts are minor at best and reservoirs are generally in very good shape.

But first a little philosophy and perspective.

We live in one of the wettest locations in the U.S. (see map).  A region that possesses a very modest population considering the carrying capacity of the land and one that generally receives much more precipitation than we need or can use, with the surplus water surging out into the Pacific.

In such a situation, does it REALLY matter that our precipitation is 10% below normal and snowpack is down a third?  Kind of silly really.

The Real Facts

    I wish the Washington State Department of Ecology would have reviewed the available weather and climate information before calling for the big "D."  And perhaps they should have studied the definition of a drought, as for example one provided by the National Weather Service:

“A deficiency of moisture that results in adverse impacts on people, animals, or vegetation over a sizeable area."

The big question is one of impact.  Or lack of them.

Another word that should have been looked up is emergency:

 "an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action"

Let's start with precipitation.  Below is a plot of precipitation over Washington State for the water year from October through March over the past 50 years.  The average is shown by the blue line.  This year is clearly below normal (about 90% of normal), but many years were far less.  No drought emergencies called for most of them.   And impacts of the dry years were generally very small.

Well, what about reservoirs?

Seattle's crucial reservoirs are well above normal (see below).  I repeat ABOVE normal.

But why stop with Seattle?  There is an informative website that provides the current levels for 19 reservoirs around the State (one additional reservoir is not reporting). 18 of the 19 were filled to 100% or more.

For agriculture, the Yakima reservoirs are important.  The latest water level information shows that the Yakima water reserves are nearly identical to last year and about 78% of normal.  The Bureau of Reclamation notes that those with senior water rights will get full allotments, while junior was rights should get about 63%.  Most agriculture should be fine.

What about predicted forecast river levels at the end of summer (mid-September)?   Around 80-90% for the Columbia and around 65-80% for the Yakima.  Much higher for rivers in Oregon.  Nothing serious. 

Finally, there is the current snowpack, which is around 65% of normal across Washington State.  So there is still substantial snow left to melt in the mountains, but less than normal.  

I talked to a former leader of the local US Army Corps of Engineers about the current water situation.  He noted that with the current snow and reservoir levels, there should not be any problems this summer.

Crop moisture indices are near normal (not shown).

The Bottom Line

    This winter has brought slightly below normal precipitation and modestly lower than normal snowpack (because of warmer than normal temperatures during this El Nino year).  There will be plenty of water for drinking and a modest reduction for some junior water rights folks in eastern Washington.    Most of the key crops (such as apples, cherries, and wheat) appear to be doing well.  So there is no reason to panic at this point.  There is no drought emergency going on.

And don't forget temperature....the other side of significant droughts.  Warm weather causes drying of the soil.   Thus, the forecast temperatures for the next month or so are critical.  The best extended forecast for the next month (European Center see below) is for COOLER THAN NORMAL conditions, which would reduce evaporative water loss, lessening the potential for damaging drought conditions.

Finally, there is a famous story about crying wolf....and it doesn't end well