The Seattle Times had a startling revelation on its front page last Sunday: the top of Mount Rainier is shrinking due to global warming (see below).
According to this article, the frozen ice cap at the summit is melting "as the atmosphere warms." Unfortunately, this claim is false and can easily be shown to be untrue. Another error-filled article by the Seattle Times Climate Lab, a journalistic enterprise funded by climate activists.
Why is this claim obviously false?
Because the top of Mount Rainier is so high that temperatures at the crest are consistently below freezing, even with a warming planet.
In addition, the added moisture associated with global warming would tend to INCREASE the amount of snow at that elevation (warm air can contain more water vapor than cooler air).
Let me demonstrate that the top of Rainier is not melting from global warming.
The crest of Mount Rainer is 14,410 ft above sea level. The nearest upstream upper-air observation location is the NOAA/NWS radiosonde launching site at Quillayute, located on the northern Washington coast. Below is the climatology of the melting level at this location, with the melting level being the elevation at which the temperature falls to freezing. Above the melting level, temperatures are below freezing. The red line is the elevation at the top of Mt. Rainier. This graph is based on over 50 years of data and is the quality controlled data provided by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Some data is rejected by the quality control algorithms.
Notice something in the figure? The freezing level is virtually always below the top of Mt. Rainier (the crest is below freezing nearly all the time).
Has the freezing level ever reached the top of Rainier? Yes, but not recently.
The following figure shows the daily climatology of the freezing level of the air approaching western Washington (again based on the radiosonde sounding at Quillayute). The horizontal red line shows the elevation of the top of Mt. Rainier. The light red line shows the daily highest freezing level. The black line is the daily average freezing level, which is around 2000 ft during the winter and 6000-8000ft in summer.
Between November 1 and April 1, the snow accumulation season, the freezing level has only reached the crest of Mt. Rainier twice. Over the summer about 20 times.
Now the key point, All these above-freezing temperatures at the creest were in the historical past, with NO RECENT cases. Let me prove this to you.
Here are all the dates when the freezingly level at Quillayute ascended above the top of Mt. Rainier.
Twenty-six dates. The most recent was 2006, 18 years ago.
Most of the "warm" events were in the 1950s and 1960s. There is no trend toward more above-freezing temperatures at the top of Mt. Rainier. In fact, this data suggests just the opposite. There is the potential that the NOAA quality control software could have rejected a few extreme outliers. This may have happened during the June 2021 event.
Even at lower elevations, the temperature changes on Mt. Rainier are not impressive. Let's consider the situation at Paradise Ranger Station, at around 5500 ft.
The annual highest temperatures had had little trend upward over the past century.
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Thus, warming temperatures are not the cause of reduced snow at the top of our favorite mountain.
Furthermore, global warming will tend to increase the precipitation (snow) at the top of Mt. Rainier, since warmer air "holds" more water vapor.
My group is doing regional climate simulations to study these effects. Assuming large increases in CO2 (the RCP 8.5 scenario), precipitation increases at the top of Mt. Rainier by the end of the century (see map showing precipitation change below). That means more, not less, snow.
The claims of the Seattle Times front-page article are demonstrably false. Global warming is NOT causing loss of snow at the top of Mt. Rainier.
Now, let me be clear, warming lower down on Mt. Rainier (say at 6000 ft) is happening and that could impact snow and glaciers well down the mountain. BUT NOT THE CREST AS DESCRIBED IN THE ARTICLE.
If snow/ice is being lost at the top of Rainier it has to be for other reasons, such as less precipitation, strong winds, or human impacts.
The Seattle Times Climate Lab repeatedly publishes climate-related articles that are incorrect. Articles that hype or misinform about climate change. The Seattle TimesClimate Lab is supported by outside money, groups with a climate advocacy agenda.
Our region deserves factual, rigorous journalism on this important subject. Climate Lab is failing to provide it.
I have so many questions. Has the Seattle Times ever responded to the criticism over its alarmist reporting? Who or what actual scientists are writing their material?
ReplyDeleteSomething is wrong with your analysis - I have been on top of all the Washington volcanoes within the past 15 years and it was never very cold on the summit, certainly not below freezing. I also spend most summer weekends up above 6000 feet - almost always in shorts and a t-shirt.
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure how to square my actual experience with your data.
How warm you feel also depends on how much solar radiation hits your body, which is high during the summer. Snow is reflective of solar radiation as well. The situation at 6000 ft is very, very different than 14,000 ft.
DeleteWould snow not be subject to the same effect, melting under sunlight despite the temps being below freezing? Snow may be white, but there is exposed rock, and dust up there.
DeleteYes, snow & ice can 'sublimate' from frozen form straight to water vapour, with the right wind and solar radiation on it.
Deletehttps://phys.org/news/2018-10-sublimation-solid-ice-quickly-evaporation.html
Umm...that's why we have 'science' - because your "actual experience" is highly subjective. Your perceptions of warmth is not an objective measurement.
DeleteThen why does the Rainier recreation forecast put out by UW (I believe from your department) regularly forecast freezing levels above 14000ft? https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html even todays forecast, in October, is freezing level 13,500ft. In late September this year, the three day period after I took summit measurements was forecast freezing levels 16,000 ft. This is the main forecast used by climbers and rangers in the park. If it is this erroneous that is a problem
ReplyDeleteYeah, I would've liked to see Cliff engage with the measurement data you put forward.
DeleteThe UW forecast data you linked also seems to dispute Cliff's analysis. Also, the NWAC data (https://nwac.us/data-portal/location/mt-rainier/) from this year shows temperatures in the 50s/60s at Camp Muir this summer, which would suggest above-freezing temperatures at the summit (obviously, a bit of extrapolation there, which could be contested).
Thirdly, the Quillayute data is interesting, but it seems potentially misleading since that site is right on the Pacific coast and >100 miles west of Rainier
By the reports own admission it is inaccurate since there is no telemetry above Camp Muir - "++ Temperatures and wind for the summit and Camp Muir are average conditions expected in the free air at those elevations."
DeleteThe Seattle Times may be pure yellow journalism, but on the bright side, I have found that the Times does make excellent birdcage liner.
ReplyDeleteGlaciers flow like fluids - at least in some cases. Could the ice at the top of the mountain be flowing away - and could that explain a decrease in height at the top?
ReplyDeleteNo, the ice cap sits atop the crater, not the major glaciers. Some of the crater is even visible due to the volcanic heat.
DeleteCliff, why does the Quillayute date not reflect the heat dome of 2021 as an example. During that period freezing levels were around 18,000 feet and annually during heat waves the freezing levels make it above 14,000 fairly regularly. Suggesting that the Quillayute data means that the temps at the summit of Rainier haven't exceeded freezing since 2006 seems misleading at best since myself and many others have been on the summit of Rainier in the summer in local temperatures above freezing in summers since 2006.
ReplyDeleteCliff suggests that NOAA’s algorithm likely rejected these readings as an outlier (if the temp did actually drop below freezing during the event). All of his analysis is based on data from the use of their algorithm. What Cliff’s assessment is not taking account for is how efficient this algorithm actually is. This issue would need to be addressed if this assessment was to be reviewed for scientific publication.
DeleteI think you're data is wrong Cliffmass during the summer the mt rainier recreational forecast often has an 11 or 12k freezing level, a couple summers ago during our record heat wave it reached 17k and I think they were forecasting a 13 or 14k freezing level just yesterday. You are correct that mt rainier is above the freezing level 80 to 90% of the time but there are several days each summer where the freezing level rises above the mountain and just by looking at the summit I can tell there is alittle melting
ReplyDeleteWhen we could have used a few extra hours of temperature spike.
ReplyDeleteDuring the summer of 2017, Washington Trails Association volunteers rebuilt the trail to the Mount Fremont Lookout from the Sunrise trailhead. I was with a (WTA) crew on October 1st, 2017 when a snow event chased us out as we rushed to finish the steps just yards from the parking lot.
Many of us had all-wheel drive vehicles (Subarus and such), but others did not, and the Park Rangers wanted us off the hill before 3 PM. We ate lunch and left.
I'm failing to understand what this has to do with the topic at hand?
DeleteAs rivers of ice, it stands to reason glacier flow is impeded by the downstream ice, and the shorter the glacier the faster it moves. So downstream melting could affect the upstream glaciers. What’s misleading here is their claim that the top is melting, but the link to receding glaciers seems plausible.
ReplyDeleteStorm.... this is NOAA/NWS observational data, not forecasts. Frequency of above freezing temperatures increases rapidly at lower elevations.. How can you tell melting by looking at the summit?.cliff
ReplyDeleteI am guessing that he's looking at the rocks. More rocks showing in late summer. And when the snow starts to look dirty, which can be seen from a distance, it suggests to me that the snow is being stripped away, whether by melting or sublimation, and the dirt concentrates at the surface. I know- I have been up there.
DeleteAnd no mention in the article of sublimation by which water goes from the solid to the gaseous stage, bypassing the liquid stage. Even if the crest were to constantly remain below freezing, the snow would gradually disappear without adding snowfall.
ReplyDeleteNot one mention in the article of the process of sublimation by which snow and ice evaporate under below freezing temperature and could account for much of the loss.
ReplyDeleteSee my answer below... sublimation could increase, but GW brings more precipitation. A small warming would produce only a small increase in sublimation...cliff
DeleteHi, Cliff. I know this is overly simplistic, but I had learned that temperature falls roughly 3 degrees F for each 1000 feet of elevation increase. This would mean the top of Rainier would be about 43 degrees lower than sea level. Wouldn't that mean that the temperature would need to be only 76F at sea level for the peak to be above freezing? And isn't the temp at the base of Rainier above 76F quite often during the summer? Or am I just misunderstanding this rule of thumb?
ReplyDeleteToby....that rule of thumb is too low... the standard atmosphere has a lapse rate of about 3.6F per thousand feet. But there is something else you have to consider...the air reaching our region is over the ocean for thousands of miles...and the water temperature is much cooler than land temp...around 50F....cliff
DeleteThere is a plausible physical mechanism though that does not involve melting. Ice sublimates, and would sublimate more with warmer temps. Additionally, if the air is drier in relative terms because it is warmer, which is possible even if absolute humidity is higher, that would also enhance sublimation, right? The effects would be extra pronounced if the place happens to be windy.
ReplyDeletesingliar...you are certainly correct. There could be an increase in sublimation-- the effect would be small since the temperature change is small. Furthermore, regional climate models suggest a weakening of winds, which would reduce sublimation. On the other hand, basic physics and regional climate models suggest increased precipitation as the planet warms, which will enhance snowfall at the top of the mountain. My basic point is that caution in claiming the origin of changes in ice cover at the top of Rainier is warranted...cliff
DeleteWhat about solar insolation? In particular fall season. (Aug-Oct) I'd Gander to guess more sunshine lately up here and snow can condense into thicker ice when its below freezing and sunny. The newspaper article is misleading...
DeleteYeah, as usual, "it's complicated". While it is not obvious to me that is it isn't climate change driven, you certainly make a physically well-grounded objection to the "it's global warming, silly" narrative.
DeleteYes, according to what I have read, in dry air more snow sublimes than melts. This also means that more heat is required to remove the snow from the mountain, than if it were just melting.
DeleteSolar radiation can melt snow when the temperature is below freezing. I really think you are unjustly simplifying this, Cliff.
ReplyDeleteUnjustly simplification? No one is saying that solar radiation can't melt snow....but that has nothing to do with global warming. Keep in mind that snow reflects much of the solar radiation that falls on it. In meteorological parlance, it has a high albedo.
DeleteIce moves down slope. If conditions are warming at lower elevations on Mt. Rainier it may be causing the glaciers to flow at a faster rate resulting in diminished ice at the top - not due to melting but due to gravity.
ReplyDeleteCliff, I may have missed it, but are there no signs of growth rather than shrinkage i.e. due to post-glacial (isostatic) rebound with glaciers melting well below the peak?
ReplyDeletethere is no such thing as global warming. it's all a hoax.
ReplyDeleteThe first question to my mind when I heard this news was whether the disappearing snow and ice might have to do with a shift in magmatic heat from below. It wouldn't be the first time, after all...
ReplyDeleteThis is out of my wheelhouse but any discussion on any uplift that might be occurring?
ReplyDeleteWow, everyone is a genius these days it seems. A result of information overload? Thanks, Cliff, for remaining firm as a voice of reason and authority.
ReplyDeleteWell from my observations. The actual summit of Mt. Rainier....Columbia Crest which I summitted several times....in the last 90's was the highest point. It always had snow on it. So....I had returned not too many years ago....and the summit now looks like a point to the south. So , I am pretty sure something is off with your analysis Cliff. The interesting thing. When I would summit in early spring....versus mid summer....there is not much difference in the amount of snow at the top. Precipitation at the top doesn't seem to happen much. I have not summitted in the dead winter....
ReplyDelete