Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.
NOAA's latest forecast is out....and I will describe it below.
El Nino and La Nina are on the opposite poles of the same phenomenon: the shift of the waters of the central tropical Pacific from warmer than normal (El Nino), to near normal (Neutral of La Nada), to below normal (La Nina).
A plot of the sea surface temperatures in this critical area (the Niño3.4 area) is shown below (actually the differences from normal). After experiencing the cool waters this winter (La Nina), we are now in neutral territory.
The correlation of the tropical water temperature with our weather during the summer is weak in any case, but winter is a different story.
So what do the latest forecasts suggest? As shown below, although there is quite a range in predictions, the general trend is towards continued neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.
Increased chances of a major wind event from an approaching midlatitude low-pressure system.
Increased chance of a strong atmospheric river that produces major flooding.
Bottom line: neutral years are known for their meteorological action.
I'll try once more to convince my wife that we should travel to the Oregon coast to see the tall waves come ashore during one of those big winter storms. She is reluctant to do so for fear that the Cascadia Fault will decide to let loose with The Big One while we are over at the coast and deliver a wave much larger and taller than the ones we were bargaining for.
ReplyDeleteCloser to the present, what I want to know is, what does it mean for this summer?
ReplyDeleteHi Cliff, could you give us an idea as to where to go to find the sunshine this coming 3-day weekend... some of us are starting to feel a little deprived. Thanks.
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