Local power companies should organize their supplies and ensure they are fully staffed starting around 6 PM tomorrow (Saturday).
If you live in western Washington, I would charge up your phones and other devices.
A significant blow is coming from a Pacific cyclone making landfall on southern Vancouver Island.
The first strong wind of the season, particularly in October, is always a problem. There has been substantial growth over the spring/summer that has yet to be tested by strong winds.
Many trees still have leaves, which catch the wind better than the leafless situation later in the winter.
The University of Washington modeling system (WRF) predicts a 986 hPa low-pressure system west of the Washington coast at 10 AM Saturday (see below). On this chart, the lines of isobars (lines of constant sea-level pressure) and the wind speeds (gusts, knots) are indicated by color shading. Big pressure changes and strong winds (gusts to 60 kt) are south and west of the low center.
Classic for an ocean cyclone.
As the low moves into southwestern British Columbia, an intense pressure variation (gradient) will move into western Washington (see forecast for 11 PM Saturday night), which will produce strong winds over the region.
The strongest winds so far this autumn.
How strong? In Seattle, the best way to find out is by going to the City of Seattle Windwatch website (below), which uses multiple weather models to visualize the strong winds over Seattle (below).
Late Saturday and early Sunday, the forecast gusts exceed 40 mph. My rule of thumb is that early in the season, power outages start with 30 mph gusts and are certain with 40 mph gusts.
Over western Washington, the winds will come in two steps.
Step one, around 11 PM, will have strong southerly winds (blue colors) from Everett southward (shown below).
The second act, a few hours later, will have strong westerly (from the west) winds surging eastward in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, hitting NW Washington
Strong southerly winds will also push northward in eastern Washington (wind gusts over the entire state at 2 AM Sunday are shown below)
Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, and other utilities should be ready.
I don't want to hype this event. It is not the Columbus Day storm by any means, but it will have impacts.
Finally, as the low moves past us, air temperatures will cool, and substantial snow is expected in the Cascades. Snowfall totals through 5 PM Sunday are shown below
The good news in all this is that wildfire season is over in Washington, and our water resources are rapidly growing again. Large amounts of precipitation are being forecast for the next ten days over our region.
Serious storms....midlatitude cyclones...are now predicted
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Wahoo. Great job Cliff. Love the maps/graphics. Thanks from a fellow weather geek
ReplyDeleteThank you. I’ll be lashing the deck furniture down today. So grateful.
DeleteThanks for the update! Your detailed updates are always appreciated in times like these.
ReplyDeleteaaaaa... ditto! Great post, and useful. We're already getting pounded up here in Whatcom
ReplyDeleteCertainly not. Neither the wind nor the rain has been anything out of the ordinary for this time of year - for any locations in Whatcom County.
DeleteAnd Welcome to The Big Dark. Four months :-( Better plan that tropical escape...
ReplyDeleteYou're booking your Tucson getaway as we speak?!
DeleteDefinitely wet in Kent where I work, and in T-Town too. Bailed out of work a bit early so the drive home was not bad, and thankfully it wasn't. This morning it was dry and traffic roughly normal to a tad light and got in a touch earlier than I normally do.
ReplyDeleteTraffic was not bad, despite the rain. Wind very calm out there, and it was evident when I passed the large US Flag at Sprague Ave on SR 16 (get off at that exit if going straight home).
Nice to know a stormy weekend is upon us. However, I do have a question for you.
Are we not getting Pineapple Express storms or are they simply renamed to Atmospheric Rivers?
I ask as I read a couple of years ago that Pineapple Express storms originate from Hawaii, Atmospheric Rivers, west of Hawaii, further out in the pacific.
I miss true Pineapple Express storms as they used to be quite common around these parts fall/winter and one storm, from November 1983 hit at least the Burien area, if not much of the Sound and the church (St Andrews Episcopal) on main st in Burien had power all weekend, but Saturday night, much of Burien was without power, including my host home, the home of my now good friend (we think we met first at that church conference and to this day, I see them here in T-town as they now live here and I periodically take care of their ageing Black Lab.
Anyway, power was restored by morning. It has always stayed with me more than some of the others, but do recall lost power, some hitting at or near Thanksgiving some years.
Anyway, a good weekend to stay inside.
OK, but is "bailing out of work a bit early" OK with your boss? Do they even know about it?
DeleteThe coastal radar right now is capturing the circulation on the storm beautifully!
ReplyDeleteGood luck to y'all low-landers. I had a 64mph gust a couple of weeks ago. The lights never flickered. Have you thought of moving?
ReplyDelete