I have received several inquiries about snow in the Cascade passes from folks who will be traveling over Thanksgiving, and for others looking for some snowy recreation this week.
So let's take a look at the latest forecasts.
A weather system is off our coast right now and has our name on it. It will move in on Tuesday afternoon, with precipitation into Wednesday.
The UW ultra-high resolution model predictions of snowfall totals through 1 PM on Wednesday (below) show up to about a foot in the Cascades, with about half that amount in the passes.
Much more snow on the eastern slopes of the Cascades than to the west. Substantial snows on the southwest side of the Olympics as well.
But this is just the beginning: more snow will come in on late Thursday and Friday over the north Cascades (see total through 4 PM Saturday below).
There is some uncertainty in the forecasts...let me illustrate.
A powerful tool used by meteorologists is ensemble forecasting....running our forecast models many times with slight differences in initial conditions or physics (e.g., precipitation processes).
Below is the ensemble prediction of snow at Stampede Pass at 4000 ft on the eastern side of the Cascade crest.
The mean forecast is for about 6 inches, with a range of 4 to 12 inches. Snoqualmie will get less...perhaps 2-4 inches. So, not the end of the world, as predicted by a few online sites.
Enjoy. And please drive carefully when crossing the Cascades.
This won’t make a major dent in Washington’s very poor snowpack but any snow in the mountains is desperately needed at this point as we have definitely entered a snow drought over the past month. There’s been ample precipitation across the majority of the state but its been exceptionally warm and it’s fallen, except at the highest elevations, as rain - hence the rapidly filling reservoirs mentioned in a recent previous blog
ReplyDeleteI ski a lot in the Cascades and typically don’t have enough to ski until late December. Isn’t low snowpack the norm for this time of the year?
DeleteIn relative terms, Washington’s snowpack is far below the median (and average) amount that it would normally have at this time of year (this is also the case for the vast majority of the Western US). Check the NRCS data and see for yourself. In the case of the Cascades, in particular, it’s been many years since late November snowpack has been as relatively meager as it currently is. Since snowpack begins to rapidly increase during late November, it remains to be seen whether we’ll be able to make up the current deficit.
DeleteThere's a lot of spin and hand-wringing about "snow drought" when the reality is that it's not a particularly meaningful harbinger of water supply in the vast majority of the Northwest. "Wet water" - rain - drives the bus, so to speak. It's rain, not snow melt, that replenishes water tables, aquifers, and reservoirs. I've been making precipitation and flow observations for decades (and also combed through masses of historic records), and IMHO the "snowpack" correlation is grossly overrated. Snow sports are a hoot, an important business for some, and snow covered mountains are scenic. That said, it's rain (not snow) that makes and keeps the PNW green and lush.
DeleteBeen watching this since it's embryonic stage in vapor form knew this was gonna be a nice little soaking
ReplyDeleteSame in BC, tons of rain, snow only above the tree line most of Nov. Lake Louise and Sunshine are in good shape. Thin n bony anywhere west.
ReplyDeleteHappy Thanksgiving to all!
ReplyDelete