Heavy rain and snow? Check.
Skiing before the holidays? Check.
Bring reservoirs to near normal levels? Check.
Threaten flooding on some local rivers? Check and check again!
The next few weeks are going to be an exciting meteorological ride, so buckle up.
A series of atmospheric rivers will make landfall over our region, resulting in bountiful precipitation, including snow in the mountains. Let me show you.
The next week will include three atmospheric rivers (water vapor transport is shown below...the key measure of atmospheric river activity)
A modest atmospheric river on Thursday,
A strong one next Monday.
Through Friday morning, a good wetting, with the mountains soaked by 3-5 inches. Just the start.
By Sunday morning, very large precipitation totals will have accumulated in the mountains, with some locations receiving 5-7 inches.
The above are forecasts from the UW modeling system, driven by the NOAA/NWS GFS model.
The European Center modeling system is doing the same thing, which gives us confidence that a major event is ahead. Below are the totals through next Monday morning. Mountains are hit very hard.
By next Friday, crazy high totals:
The rivers will rise rapidly, some to flood stage. Consider the situation for the Snoqualmie River near Carnation (below). The first two atmospheric rivers will bring the level up to flood stage (see below). The third, stronger river will cause substantial flooding (not shown below).
Snow in the mountains? Huge amounts will fall. Here is the forecast through mid-December by the European Center model. Yards of snow in some locations.
The ski season will begin. Our water resources will be greatly enhanced. Winter recreation will beckon.
