For lovers of Northwest snow, I have good news.
Bountiful mountain snow is GUARANTEED before Christmas.
Consider the latest 120h forecast for accumulated snowfall from the UW weather prediction system (below).
A big snow dump in the mountains, with over 3 feet of snow at some locations.
Same story! Lots of mountain snow.
I know what you are thinking.
Can we trust these snowy predictions?
Good question. To evaluate their reliability, let's look at the NOAA ensemble of many forecasts for snow at Stampede Pass in the central WA Cascades (at about 4000 ft).
The individual forecasts are shown by the gray lines and their mean by the black line (below).
All the forecasts have lots of snow, with a mean of about 40 inches by Christmas.
You can see why I offer a guarantee. Lots of snow is a sure thing.
So get your skis and snowshoes out. There will be plenty of snow at the high-elevation ski areas.
Guaranteed.
Between 6 am and 3 pm (Dec 18), about 4" fell at 2,240 feet – about 8 miles ENE of Ellensburg. A bit of snow in Oct/Nov didn't stay. The NWS out of Pendleton was high on temp and low on snow with today's forecast.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the low lands? Any white stuff for December 25th?
ReplyDeleteMount Baker Ski Area may open this weekend depending on road conditions. As of the present, Hwy 542 is closed due to flood damage. Obviously, with US-2 closed from Skykomish to Leavenworth for the foreseeable future, winter recreation at Stevens Pass will be severely hampered.
ReplyDeleteCurious, with all this rain and ground saturated, then heavy (likely wet) snow on top, wouldn’t that make landslide/avalanche risk extremely high? Not so sure I would go play in the snow. Also good luck getting to ski areas with all the road closures.
ReplyDeleteOur elevation is 560-ft MSL, 1-1/4 miles north of Snoqualmie Falls. We may get snow here, but it looks to be too warm for it to stick. I won't need to use my snow blower to clear the driveway.
ReplyDeleteLet's all sing "santa baby"
ReplyDeleteDon't forget it takes ski areas several days to prep runs, mark obstacles, service and get lifts working properly and groom runs. Good news for water supply, fish and wildlife, farmers and winter recreationists. Yea. Just a start. Let's hope La Nina keeps it coming.
ReplyDeleteMost of the resorts hope to open on the 20th, or maybe 21st, IF the roads are open. Crystal Mtn has an agreement with the state to allow a limited number of cars through to the resort if they get the snow. White Pass is open from the west and hoping for sufficient snow. Even Bluewood, near Dayton, Mt. Spokane, and 49°N are waiting for snow. Mission Ridge needs snow and to remove fallen trees.
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