How Unusual Has This Winter Been?

It is now officially spring, and a good time to check on how unusual this winter has been. 

Meteorologists often do so by reviewing conditions over the water year (October-now), and I will do the same.

 First, consider Seattle's accumulated precipitation during the present water year (green line, observed; red line, climatological average).  

We have been a bit above normal overall!   Wet periods in December and March.

Yakima, on the east,  is similar, with a water year total near normal.  There is a reason I have been discouraging the drought talk.

Temperature?  See below, with blue being observed, tan showing the normal range, and red/light below showing the record highs and lows.

At Seattle, temperatures have been unremarkable, with periods of above and below normal warmth.  No records broken.

At Yakima, there is a clear warm bias this year, particularly in December and recently.  

These two warm periods are the reason the snowpack is now below normal for the Yakima Basin, but why the reservoirs are well above normal in water stored.    

I know some folks are interested in climate change, so what do the long-term trends for water year temperatures and precipitation look like? (October through February shown below)

Consider the situation for Western Washington from 1896 to the present.

For temperature, this year was warmer than normal but not a record. Over the past 130 years, there has been a slow warming of roughly 1.5 F.  

A modest global warming signal.

In contrast, a slight increase in precipitation....too small to be noticeable or significant.

Because of the two warm spells, the snowpack over the region is about 60% of normal (see below).   

Let me stress, this is mainly about the warm/wet periods associated with atmospheric rivers and Kona Storms, NOT global warming, as being claimed by some media and amateur YouTube channels.