Washington is the UFO Capital of the U.S. Is it Our Weather?

 A series of reports have come out recently demonstrating that Washington State is NUMBER ONE in the number of reports per person of UFOs (Unidentified Flying Objects).

Below is the data.  During the past year, there was one sighting for every 1021 people in Washington. 

In contrast, in Louisiana UFOs are observed less than a third as often, something perhaps explained by the greater interest in Mardi Gras, alligators, and spicy gumbo.

Certain Washington (and Oregon) locations are favored for extraterritorial visitation, particularly east of the Cascade Crest and over the Olympics (see below, darker green indicates more events), 

There are three reasons why Washington State could have more UFO sighting reports:

 (1)  UFOs really are more frequent here. 

     Perhaps extraterrestrials like our salmon or are interested in Boeing. Perhaps they think Washingtonians are particularly interesting.   I would doubt it.

  (2) Washington State has a mental health issue.  

 Some political commentators might agree with this.  Perhaps folks in this state are so worried about the future of the world and the current administration that they yearn for intergalactic intervention.

(3) Our meteorology often produces features in the sky that look like UFOs.  

This is the one I would put my money on. 

It all started here.

Did you know that the UFO craze started HERE in 1947, when a pilot of a small plane  (Kennith Arnold), flying between Chehalis and Yakima, spotted a group of "saucer-like" objects over Mount Rainier?

 

A faculty member in my department analyzed the situation and demonstrated that Arnold actually saw lenticular clouds forced by Mount Rainier.

Such clouds form when relatively moist air is forced over a mountain barrier and then oscillates up and down, with upward motion producing the lens-shaped cloud (see schematic below).

As an aside, during a presidential debate on October 20, 2017, presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich admitted to seeing a UFO while staying at actress Shirley Maclaine's home near....... Mount Rainier.

Dennis Kuckinch

The Pacific Northwest, and particularly Washington State, is probably the best place in the US to see lenticular/mountain wave clouds.  

You can see them here on many, many days--either by viewing the sky or on satellite imagery.   

Why so frequent here?

We have big mountain barriers of sufficient height.

We have strong winds approaching the mountains.

We have air that is sufficiently moist to produce clouds.

Cloud like this:

Or this

Or this

So consider the meteorological explanation of our first rank in UFO sightings.

Or if you prefer:

Wind Uncertainty

The confidence in weather forecasts is not always the same.

Sometimes all the models lock onto a forecast, suggesting uncertainty is low and meteorologists can have confidence in their predictions.

But in other situations, uncertainty is large, with large differences among the forecast guidance.

The wind forecast for tomorrow over central Puget Sound is a good example of such an uncertain forecast.

One of the key tools of meteorologists for exploring uncertainty is viewing the forecasts from many weather model simulations, something called an ensemble. 

Below is the ensemble of forecasts for wind gusts in Seattle for forecasts starting early Friday.  

The predictions for Saturday are all over the place!

A low confidence prediction, at least for Seattle winds.

The key issue producing uncertainty is the path and intensity of a weak low-pressure center approaching the region.

The updated American model solution on Friday evening has a low approach coast and then passes across northern Puget Sound  (see below for forecast at 5 AM Saturday. 

Earlier today, both the European Center and NOAA HRRR models had a stronger low passing to the north, which would have produced much stronger winds (up to 50 mph) over western Washington, but they have backed off that solution.

I suspect very few will lose power tomorrow.  However, the approaching low will dump ever more rain over the region on Saturday morning.   Showers will greatly decline on Sunday and Monday, and Tuesday should be mainly dry.

Talking of rain, today's moist southwesterly flow produced profound contrasts for precipitation across the Olympics (below).  For the period from midnight through 8 PM Friday, there were 2-3 inches on the southwest side of the barrier and only .01 in Port Townsend.    That is quite a rain shadow.

Note that the largest rainfall totals are not at the high elevations but in the lower foothills of the mountains, where the moist air was initially forced to rise.