Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter?

Do you feel lucky?

Several of you have asked about the outlook for this coming winter...and specifically what it implies for the ski season. Should you buy that season pass at Snoqualmie Summit or Stevens?

I hesitate to answer this question...I am already in big enough trouble with KING-5 for teasing them about my favorite Jim Forman....I don't want the Washington State Ski Owners Association on my case. So I won't give you a specific recommendation. Just some information.

This is going to be an El Nino year...one in which the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal. Take a look at the latest data over the Pacific (see attached). Meteorologists pay particular attention to the Nino3.4 area, and you can see it and adjacent sections of the tropic Pacific are now well above normal and are predicted to warm further this winter.

During El Nino winters the Northwest tends to be warmer than normal and a bit drier than normal (see figures). Cascade snowpack tends to be less. Remember this is a statistical relationship. There is a correlation with less snow during El Nino years in our mountains and in the lowlands. We will probably see less snow than last year (which ended up a surprise La Nina year). The Seattle Dept of Transportation will have an easier year, pretty much for sure.

Should you get that season ski pass? To quote Clint Eastwood: "Do you feel lucky?"

The Marine Air Cometh

6 PM visible satellite image

It has been a perfect weekend. I even finished painting my deck--ready for the storms of winter! But something is happening on the western side of the Cascades...the marine air is moving in. Notice the increase in wind speed? Or the change in wind direction? My wind chimes are ringing and the cool breezes are extraordinarily pleasant. Both the Huskies and Seahawks won this weekend, and all is right with the world.

There was a distinct contrast today in sky conditions--with a band of clouds along the Washington and Oregon coasts that extended southwestward over Oregon. (see satellite pic above). Even some light rain showers on the coast. An upper trough aloft has been slowly approaching and this afternoon its influence initiated the push of marine air eastward. Take a look at the surface chart this afternoon--southwest winds pushing into Puget Sound...with some winds gusting to 15-20 kts. In the Strait of Juan de Fuca, westerlies are moving eastward. The result..tomorrow will be cooler and cloudier--particularly in the morning--with some sunbreaks in the afternoon. Well, at least it will make it easier to go to work.

The weather observations at the UW (shown below) indicate that the temperature is about ten degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. You can see the switch to southwesterlies around 11 AM (18Z) and the steady rise in pressure as cool, dense air moves in. And the winds!

There have been a number of comments to the blog about El Nino..and I will talk it about it more this week... but keep in mind that El Nino has little impact on our summer or early fall weather--so you CAN'T blame this wonderful September weather on the tropical Pacific so easily! And a number of you want some guidance on purchasing that season pass at Snoqualmie Pass or some other ski area. More on that later! So hold off for a few days.