April 14, 2009

The Upcoming Heat Wave

So many people are complaining about the cold, unseasonable weather. Even some snow yesterday in the convergence zone! Except for those 3 warm days last week, temps have remained far below normal (see graph). But there is a major change coming this weekend and into next week..and we should see several days reaching the upper 60s and 70s. Take a look at the attached surface temp plots for Friday, Sat, Sun, and Monday at 5 PM--quite a warm up...with Sunday looking torrid...well into the 70s. Even if the model is way off...this is going to be a very warm interval.


  1. It will be nice to see/ have warm weather again with lots of sunshine. I`m thinking about going back to Tiger Mountain this weekend on my days off(Fri/ Sat), but not sure which day I want/should go.

    From what I see in the models, looks like Sat may be the better day to go up there..

  2. Call me a non-weather lover if you want, but, YAY!! I'm ready to get the vegetable garden really started. :-)

  3. Hey Cliff, does this coming heat wave mark the end of frost danger for the gardening season or is it still a little too early for frost tender plants?

    Sorry to miss your talk on gardening and weather but it looks like it's sold out for the 16th.

  4. Sorry, but I am one of those that likes to see it keep snowing into June. Skiing down at Mt. Hood in the middle of July last year we were able to ski from the top of the Palmer snow field the full two miles to the Timberline lodge. I could use another great year like that!

    Keep on snowing!!!

  5. Cliff,
    Thanks for the great collection of graphics. Studying them really gives me insight into the the forecasting process.

    Also, from the AP today:
    SEATTLE --
    "The National Park Service has approved a new 30-foot weather tower at Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park to improve forecasts for floods, winter storms and avalanches.

    "Park officials said Thursday that the tower will allow the park and the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center in Seattle to make better measurements of snow depth and precipitation.

    "The center provides detailed weather and avalanche forecasts for the Cascades and Olympics.

    "Park crews will install the new weather tower this summer, after snow melts. The tower will be located about 100 yards from the existing weather station."

    What's this all about? Can you 'splain?

  6. Cliff, don't you think the recent runs (from the 15th and 16th) of the GFS have overdone the forecast upper ridging over the NW, at least up until the more recent runs which have backed off this warming substantially.

    Do you think this may be due to poor resolution of the model's intialization method(over estimation) of the sensible heat flux from the colder than average water off the Coast?


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