February 05, 2021

New Podcast on Season's Coldest Air, the Potential for Snow, and the Truth About the Pacific Data Void

My new podcast is online.   In it, Ialk about the weekend forecast and the arrival of cold, Arctic air over the region.  And yes, evaluate whether snow is in the cards.  I also answer a frequently asked question:  is there a weather data void over the Pacific and does it degrade Northwest weather forecasts? 

The answer may surprise.

The latest NOAA/National Weather Service GEFS ensemble forecast (running the model many times to get at uncertainty) suggests a profound future cool-down  for Seattle (see below).  You can see the individual forecasts (gray lines) and the average of all them (black line).   Highs only in the 30s!  You will also note that uncertainty increases with time, with the forecasts starting to diverge by mid-week.

So be prepared for MUCH cooler temperatures.

Snow?   Some, but not all, of the model forecasts are bringing snow to Seattle, starting on Monday.  Lots of uncertainty.  I will update on Sunday.

I wanted to mention that I will be having a special online session tomorrow (Saturday) morning for my Patreon supporters.

Here is my podcast:
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  1. Replying to your mention of encouraging listener feedback in your last podcast:

    Hello from Vancouver Island! I really enjoy your blogs and podcasts, and value your in-depth forecasts, and the interesting weather topics you discuss each week. That said, I'm sure I'm not the only listener from SW British Columbia that would love to hear more detail on the weather forecast up this way if you can squeeze it in. I have yet to find any bloggers/podcasters that focus specifically on SW BC, though your broadcasts do largely fill in the gap for folks in BC like me who like to have a more detailed explanation of upcoming weather.

  2. Hi Cliff: I always enjoy your podcast, even if I don't care for the weather itself (not big on the rain). I live on southeastern Vancouver Island and the situation you described with a northeasterly flow is the time where I start watching (and hoping) for sea-effect snow. Fingers crossed.

  3. LOL at the 18z GFS. I might be worried if it wasn't so terrible past day 4 this year.

    1. Yeah,it flip flops daily.Good sci-fi;about a week ago the 00Z run had a cold upper low in the 510s HPa range stalled over W.Wash for about 3-4 days around Feb 10-14.❄😂❄

  4. Hi Cliff,
    I enjoy your show!
    My one comment is that your voice sometimes drops very low and then booms out. I have to adjust the volume a few times.
    It was something that happened to me as a community radio station announcer years ago. I had to watch the dial closely.


  6. Weather Underground has an interesting projection of snow on an interesting day and time - FRIDAY at 6:00 P.M. This suggestion, should it come to pass, would create an interesting traffic flow on I-5 in the late afternoon. Some of us have that memory of driving on I-5 (1990?) when all hell froze and BMW's were abandoned in the fast lane. I'm assuming there is little chance of that, however. My wife and I have our second vaccine Friday afternoon and will be hightailing it north to South Whidbey Island in case there is a convergence zone event.

  7. Cliff... Excellent podcast. I just found you on Spotify. Please keep up the great work. I get a ton out of your blog as well.

  8. Cliff: I always enjoy the podcast. I would second Rowan's comment that occasionally your voice volume drops off. Maybe need something like a VU meter.
    On the issue of no data void in the Pacific: How do you reconcile that with calling for additional Doppler radar for the Oregon coast? You've mentioned this several times in previous columns.

  9. Thank you! Always a well reasoned explanation for us non-meteorologists about our local weather phenomena.

  10. I really enjoy your podcast and your in depth explanation of the tricky dynamics that the Puget Sound Region presents. I live in kitsap county and at times we have are little micro climate over here that is totally different dynamics than Seattle and surrounding foothills. I also enjoy looking at your UW charts and learning more about what the picture is telling us. Thank you again, Matty Jack!

  11. At the risk of sounding like a demanding sourpuss, is it possible to transcribe the podcasts? I miss the long posts and how low patience for videos and audio.

  12. I was caught in the traffic mess at Snoqualamie pass, the snow was light enough that the road was slushy you didn't need chains if you slowed to 40-50 mph and allowed alittle extra following distance. The problem was many cars were trying to do 60+ mph in the slush there were several accidents, they had to close the road to clear all the accidents and the closure created a big backup where it took 1 hour to go 3 or 4 miles. I'm not kidding when I say Seattle drivers are some of the worst drivers I have ever seen and I've lived in a few different parts of the country. Thanks for the forecast it does look promising for a big snow event. I was hiking by Quincy and it was sunny and cool its remarkable how big a difference the rainshadow can make.

  13. Got a skiff of snow at 500ft above hood canal last night...33 now but clearing.
    Hoping for a good dump Friday.

  14. I really enjoy your blog and podcast. I love how you touch on so many aspects of the weather and even offer some insight into the challenges and advances in the world of meteorology


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