The visible satellite image this morning is stunning: it looks like something one might see in mid-autumn (see below).
The swirl of clouds associated with a potent low-pressure center is offshore, with a substantial front circling around and then extending offshore of the Washington coast. That front will reach the western interior around dinnertime, bringing heavier rain.
The radar this morning shows the remnants of the weak first band and a MUCH stronger frontal band offshore. Quite impressive for late July.
Expect much heavier rain later today, as suggested by the latest UW WRF model accumulated rainfall through 5 AM Tuesday. Eastern Washington will be rain shadowed by the Cascades.
The next week is going to be relatively cool, as a trough of low pressure will be parked offshore, something indicated by the European Center ensemble forecast of the upper-level heights at 500 hPa (like pressure) verifying Saturday evening. You will notice the ridge inland, which will be associated with above-normal temperatures over the Great Plains.
The European Center surface temperature forecast for the next five days is for cooler than normal temperatures (blue colors) over the Northwest and BC, but toasty over New Mexico, Texas, and the high Plains--a reversal of the pattern experienced earlier this summer.
I should have known it would rain after I decided to paint my fence on Sunday...
Could thunderstorms form with this front today?
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms are rare around here as we simply do not have the humidity/temp differences needed most of the time and when we do, it's a clap, flash and that's it.
DeleteI wish. I did not hear a thing. Got a measly ~0.2 inches or so on the Bothell-Mill Creek line. It's peanuts compared to what the Rockies can deliver in summer. Which, by the way, I'm about to visit.
DeleteThank you, Cliff! I just bought some exterior house paint this morning - I will alter my plans for the next few days accordingly!
ReplyDeleteYou recently reported that global warming is relatively benign at this point. What can you tell us about the melting glaciers?
ReplyDeleteA mountain top in Austria crumbled and disappeared this Spring, followed by a major landslide ( like Oso) that covered part of the town of Brienz in Switzerland.
DeleteRegarding the melting glaciers, we're all going to die next week, that's all you need to know. As for a mountain top crumbling in Austria, a butterfly opened it's wings last week, which means that yet again we're all going to die next week. You heard it here first.
DeleteProbably shouldn't respond to a bot, but the Earth has been warming very gradually for 300 years, since the Little Ice Age ended, long before heavy use of fossil fuels.
Delete@MacD - that's true, of course, but the pace of warming has accelerated and the uptick coincides with the CO2 emissions from human activity. This is the anthropogenic signal that Cliff frequently mentions on the blog.
DeleteNo one disputes natural climate variability and the existence of natural influences that alter climate over long-term cycles. But the recent warming due to human factors exceeds historical climate variability both in degree and pace.
You'll scoff at this source, but if you want a very user-friendly illustration check this out: https://xkcd.com/1732/
It's a nice visualization of both the natural fluctuations you correctly note AND the more recent human-driven impacts.
Cliff...just move to Everett--where the omnipotent Olympic rain shadow will allow you to paint that fence....as of 4pm today, I see partly cloudy/sunny weather right now, but it is getting pretty breezy as I write this...my water sprinkler is innocently wetting down my SUV, as these breezes facilitate the reach of the sprinkler Maybe, just maybe, my sprinklers job will be augmented soon by that front you mention...but I doubt it! lol.It seems that the only times I can count on rainfall, is when that elusive "convergent zone" parks itself over N. King/S. Snohomish county...and I have not seen much of that action lately.
ReplyDeleteCurbozer- Yes- pretty breezy! I just got back from a week on my sailboat which I keep in Everett. It seems that during the summer it is always windy from the NW between 4 PM and dark. Just when I have to take down the sails, that is when the wind is strongest. It maxes around 7 PM, which is when I typically return and the boat is bouncing around like a bucking bronco. It makes the job tough as there is no way to get out of the wind.
DeleteWhat an impressive looking storm for late July! Looking like northern Snohomish county will get a nice convergence zone tonight
ReplyDeleteSomething has been amiss with thte BLI rain gauge for some time. We are about 10 miles north of Bellingham Int. Airport and received .86 inches of rain today as recorded by our Accurite. Verified this total with the trusty 5 gallon bucket gauge...
ReplyDeleteNOAAs BLI station seems to have reported just 0.01 inches. This has been a pattern I've noticed for the last year or so. It seems Bellingham is rain shadowed more often than not, but I can guarantee they got more than a hundredth of an inch of precip.
Who is responsible for verifying the accuracy of these (basic) instruments?
https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBLI.html
The airport rain gauge was obviously offline yesterday. It is not rainshadowed. Sometimes the BLI system will go offline, but still capture data, which is uploaded later. I live close to BLI and my Davis weather station generally tracks quite close to BLI. My 24-hour precip was .6", which is similar to other stations in this area where the range was .5" to 1". There was a lot of variability in precip. Normal total rainfall for July is approximately .9", so at least for my site, we are still below normal for the month.
DeleteVery rainy late afternoon/early evening in north Bellingham on 7/24. My CoCoRahs rain gauge picked up 0.86" for the day by 8:30PM, nearly 0.8" of which fell between 5PM and 8:30PM - far more than was forecast. Torrential rain fell between 5:30PM and 6PM, in particular, with rain rates approaching 2"/hr. The precipitation data for BLI isn't available as of the moment but this is certainly the rainiest 24th of July in the 75-year history of that site and one of the rainiest July days on record - likely the rainiest July day in around 30 years.
ReplyDeleteNWOS is now reporting .73" of precip for BLI yesterday. While this is a record for the date, there are 11 other July days that have daily records in excess of .73" (although most of these are not in the last week of July). These kind of daily rainfall accumulations can easily occur in a two-hour period in the summer if you happen to be in the path of a thunderstorm. Here is the BLI monthly report link:
Deletehttps://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KBLI&year=2023&mon=7&wfo=sew&p=temperature
It was also the rainiest July day in 28 years with the most recent rainier July day being 7/25/1995. BLI is in the path of a thunderstorm with vanishing rarity - particularly during summer. Did you hear any thunder yesterday? I did not.
DeleteHere's just above Ste.Michelle...oops... cant post video ofbig and heavy downpour!!
ReplyDeleteDefinitely got the rain here in Tacoma late yesterday and through the evening. Now at 7AM, it's dry and partly cloudy.
ReplyDeleteYay!...That dreaded "rain shadow" did not prevent Everett from getting a decent soaking last evening...but I left my sprinkler going throughout the event. It's OK, my neighbors have accepted my eccentricity!
ReplyDeleteOh, "Bellingham (BLI) brothers" ...(and NOAA, 'as-if' it seems to matter in respect to data-point locations): The weather at BLI is not, and has never been, characteristic of the weather or climate Whatcom County on-whole. Whatcom County is approximately the size of the state of Rhode Island, and more than half of the county is mountainous (including Mt Baker). Weather readings at BLI have virtually no significance in respect to the city's or the county's "county water supply." The location is a lousy harbinger of regional weather, MHO. So - frankly, beyond the interests of the pilots who use the airport and need to know what's happening on-site and in the flightline, why obsess?
ReplyDeleteYou've made similar comments previously about BLI not being representative of the county's weather. Western Whatcom County contains 90% or more of the county's population, including all of its major cities, so I would regard it as highly relevant. I've never seen anything to suggest BLI is not typical of the western part of the county. The western part of the county is not in the mountains or the foothills of the mountains. BLI is a standard reference point with a long data history and is used by NWS. The primary times I see a split in the weather being the northern and southern portions of the county are during Fraser River outflows. BLI is located halfway between the north and south and sometimes exhibits the northerly influence and sometimes the southerly. I'm not trying to turn this into a urban vs. rural debate, but it is very hard to see how weather in the Cascades is of more significance to 90% of the area's population.
DeleteMAC, yes Whatcom County's "population" in the western lowlands and along the I-5 corridor is definitely many times more dense than the majority of the county. Beyond the heat retention of buildings and pavement in Bellingham and other urban island micro-climates, I don't know that population density has much bearing on the county's (or region's) weather patterns, if any. I've repeatedly encouraged weather-interested folks to investigate, understand, and appreciate Pacific NW weather and climate big-picture, full-scale, but I must not be communicating effectively. I'll keep trying. Thanks.
DeleteI think I understand and you make some good points. I was really referring to the local weather forecast. There is no question that what happens in the mountains is very important to those living in the lowlands. We are highly dependent on the snow pack and the rivers. Even if the NWS uses BLI as a reference point for the lowlands, it also extensively monitors the entire region. As I am sure you are aware, there are quite a large number of services, including the NWS, that give point forecasts and current conditions on many locations in the Cascades and foothills.
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