We are now entering the driest time of the year in the Northwest. A time when we are typically drier than the desert Southwest.
Below is a plot of the probability of receiving a trace (0.01 inch) or more of rain versus date for Seattle. The last two weeks of July have extraordinarily low probabilities of precipitation.
Yet this year we may see some rain.
Tomorrow, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move across British Columbia bringing rain to the WA coast and Northwest Washington (see upper level (500-hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) map at 4 AM Monday below)
The total precipitation forecast through 7 PM Monday from the NOAA/NWS HRRR model is shown below. Wet coast and northern Cascades
British Columbia will enjoy a more thorough watering, with the UW modeling system showing up to an inch over coastal mountains and the Rockies through Tuesday. This is good since it reduces wildfire threats in the province.
Temperatures will cool down on both sides of the Cascades on Monday. Today, Sunday, is a bit cooler on the western side as some shallow marine air tried to push inland. But much cooler on Monday morning
As in any cool-down in our region, there is the threat of temporarily enhanced winds on the eastern slopes of the Cascades and immediately downwind.
Such a wind enhancement will occur during this event, which will result in short-term enhanced fire danger in eastern Washington, as suggested by the Hot-Dry-Wind diagnostic for 8 PM tonight (below, orange and red colors indicate more problematic conditions). Very good for wind energy generation, though.
So folks in eastern Washington need to ensure they don't start any grass fires.
After the upper trough moves by, temperatures in the west will warm into the lower 80s, while eastern Washington will move back to 100F.
I hope it rains, and I hope it rains more than the models are predicting. Considering the number of rain events occurring world wide this year I wonder if you, Professor, or others have models exploring initial atmospheric warming’s possible relationship to atmospheric water vapor content and other factors necessary to create the summer flooding water volumes being produced. Obviously only if you’re inclined. It’s your blog.
ReplyDeleteThe Ellensburg area is expected to get a 25 degree drop in Tmax [ 98 to 73 ]. Sustained wind is expected to be 33 mph. No rain - not news.
ReplyDeleteWould love your take on this very alarming article: https://www.vox.com/climate/23738846/el-nino-2023-weather-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain?fbclid=IwAR1ia5sLQXKO5BTuopOwd27CuuRn9lHr4Pci6Vz0cH49RWo8BFl0Nb0a5Ug
ReplyDeleteCliff do you have anything to say about the unremitting heatwaves in the southwest and elsewhere in the world. I know el nino warmer waters contribute to these temps. But is it not also true that during our past La Nina years the cooler waters were able to absorb more of the atmospheric heat. Which also warmed the waters to some degree meaning we are starting off with even warmer El Nino waters as a result. Would love your take on this. Read a very alarmist article in Vox about this. Thanks
ReplyDeleteMary...the Southwest has generally been cooler than normal this year. Huge snowpack. Why do you think there have been "unremitting heatwaves"?
DeleteAnyone interested in the weather in the US southwest should read this book:
DeleteThe Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl
by Timothy Egan
"Read a very alarmist article in Vox about this." I think we've identified a key problem of your statement right there, indicating a very dubious "source" of information.
DeleteIt's disappointing you so easily dismissed Mary's comment. Phoenix broke the record today for consecutive days over 110 degrees at 19. The forecast for the next 10 days is for more of the same. If that isn't the definition of unremitting I don't know what is. What happened earlier this year in the Southwest is irrelevant and has nothing to do with concurrent heatwaves in southern Europe, the Middle East and China.
DeleteThank you Craig. I would really like to hear Cliff's thoughts on this that belye my fears of impending disaster
Delete"What happened earlier this year in the Southwest is irrelevant and has nothing to do with concurrent heatwaves in southern Europe, the Middle East and China."
DeleteI see - so you dismiss evidence to the contrary, all in service to the narrative that the earth is doomed unless we all destroy our lives in order to appease the angry God of Gaia.
"If that isn't the definition of unremitting I don't know what is."
What's actually unremitting is the continuing onslaught of Climate Cultists to this blog, all screeching to the heavens of the upcoming Apocalypse. Where were you guys when California was undergoing historic levels of snowpack and precipitation, just a few months ago?
(crickets)
Mary writes "... my fears of impending disaster." Fear, as Frank Herbert wrote, is the mind-killer. If one thing has been discouraging in the last 4 years it has been seeing fear take over people. Friends I used to see as bright and interesting, are no longer so. Acquaintances and co-workers living in fear. So sad to see. Cliff doesn't trade in the stock of fear.
DeleteAll I really would like is for Cliff to give an analysis of what in his assessment might be causing this very long lasting heat dome over Texas and Southwest. Records are being broken. I have a lot of respect for his level headed analysis. No need for nastiness guys/gals. But I guess that is what happens on comment sections these days.
Delete@Eric Blair - aren't you doing exactly the same thing yourself? You're dismissing the current and nearly global excessive heat while cherry picking a good year for Sierra snowpack.
DeleteAny honest assessment of global temperature trends shows a clear increase that is readily and convincingly linked to human activity.
You betray your real motivation for denying this by bringing up a ton of weird straw man arguments about "destroying our lives" to address warming. It's clear that you don't like the proposed solutions (e.g., aggressively moving to renewable energy sources) and thus feel obligated to deny the problem. It would be so much better if conservatives would offer up solutions that are more agreeable to their ideology instead of making up straw men and demonstrably incorrect arguments.
Syoung - if you'd bothered to read my many posts regarding this issue over the past seven years, you'd know that I've offered numerous solutions to this issue, both for short - term and the long - term. To cite just one example, I've discussed the need to fastrack the emerging technology of small scale nuclear reactors, many of which will be able to reuse their waste byproducts in toto. They're finally coming online in a few years, BTW. Renewables are not only enormous wastes of taxpayer monies, they've been proven to be rife with corruption, self - dealing among insiders and also incredibly wasteful and inefficient to boot. The massive wind farms are already failing with the largest manufacturer close to declaring bankruptcy, just last week. Not to mention the environmental degradation coming with the waste from the discarded turbines, and let's not forget about the incredible toxic dumps being created via the waste of discarded lithium from the batteries from cars and solar panels. I'd add in the reality that much of the lithum being mined today is being done in dangerous conditions in 3rd world countries, with the workers being paid less than the minimum wage in the US.
DeleteBut you wouldn't know about any of that, apparently. As to the "stawman argument," take a look at the hysterical reactions among some commenters to just the last few posts from Cliff. Completely over the top, rife with panic and fear - mongering. They don't offer any solutions, just screaming at the top of their lungs. Anything to make them feel better about themselves, I guess.
About a half inch of rain has fallen 4 miles north east of Arlington so far today its great!
ReplyDeleteYou lucky dogs! I've been watching the clouds north of us all day suspecting that rain had to be falling between Seattle and the border.
DeleteWell Keith...your area is lucky...here in lovely (but parched) S. Everett--not a drop of rain today. That ubiquitous Rain Shadow show us no mercy!
ReplyDeleteNot much rain for most of the region.....
ReplyDeleteThe current forecast indicates some light rainfall is possible in the Bellingham area toward the beginning of next week.
ReplyDeletePlants:
ReplyDeletehttps://s3.amazonaws.com/cdn2.socialtrade.com/comsys/imgs/image_I3UPyl_l.png