Big Waves in Hawaii. Why?

 There is a lot of excitement in Hawaii today, as large waves from the northwest reach the north coast of Oahu, making possible the Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational, a surfing competition only open to the most elite surfers.    This competition REQUIRES waves reach  at least 40 ft in height at the venue:  Waimea Bay.

NOAA has a buoy just offshore and so far it has only reported a significant wave height of around 6 meters (20 ft).   But the highest waves can substantially exceed the significant wave height and waves can grow as they feel bottom close to the shore. (The significant wave height is the average of the highest third of the waves).

NOAA runs a computer forecast model that predicts significant wave height and direction, called Wave Watch 3.   Here is its forecast for 10 AM.   The arrows show the wave direction (from the northwest), with significant wave heights of 15-20 ft.

What was the source of these waves?

Well, to get big waves you need three things (in addition to water!).  Strong winds, a long fetch for the winds to act on the water, and substantial duration of the wind interacting with the water surface.

To get perfect big waves on the NW Oahu coast generally requires a strong low pressure center to move west to east north of the islands.     

And you need the low to follow the right path.   Too far away and the waves have a chance to decline before reaching Seattle.  Too near the islands and conditions are too stormy and unpleasant at the venue.   

To put it another way, you need the storm in on goldilocks track.

In this case, a low pressure center at 10 PM last night was in the perfect position northwest of the islands and was usually strong (indicated by the shading, which shows the difference of the pressure from normal).  Goldilocks indeed.

Now, it case some of my Northwest readers are disappointed regarding the big wave action reaching the Hawaiian Islands, I have some good news.   Some very big waves should reach our coast on tomorrow (Monday, see below).  Surfing anyone?

An Intense Christmas Atmospheric River. No California Drought This Year

 One of the most overused terms used by the media is "atmospheric river".   Yes, even more hyped than "bomb cyclone."     But this week there will be an atmospheric river worth noting...and I will discuss below.

Atmospheric River Overuse

Although the term, atmospheric river, was first used in the late 1990s, the phenomenon was well-known for decades before that: a plume of warm, moist air leading cold fronts associated with midlatitude cyclones.

Virtually every midlatitude cyclone/low center has such a plume of moist air.   To see how omni-present atmospheric rivers are, below is map from today of the plumes of water vapor (red and orange colors) and heights at 700 hPa pressure (think of this as pressure at 10,000 ft).   LOTS of atmospheric rivers, with most associated with low centers and their associated fronts.

But not all atmospheric rivers are equal in magnitude.  

This week some particularly strong ones will aim at northern California and southern Oregon, releasing intense precipitation as the moisture-laden area is forced to rise by the regional terrain.

One of the best measures of atmospheric river strength is integrated water vapor transport (IVT), which is calculated by determine how much water vapor is being transported by the atmospheric river over a period of time (essentially wind speed times water vapor content of the air).

Here is a plot of IVT on Wednesday evening.    WOW...that is quite an atmopsheric river!

The result or this  atmospheric river and some weaken cousins this week, will be massive rainfall on the West Coast.

For the 72 h ending 4 PM Thursday, there will be massive precipitation totals predicted (by the UW model) from northern CA through BC, with northern CA/SW Oregon getting hit hardest (over 5 inches).

Here are the totals through the end of the year from the European Center model.  Many locations will enjoy over a foot of rain.

Remember all the talk of permanent drought in CA during the global warming.

Well, such predictions have not worked out well.

Most California reservoirs are above normal right now....and  that is before the big rains this week (see the proof below).  Reservoir levels  will surge with all the upcoming rain.

Snowpack is in good shape for the entire Wast Coast. (see below).

In short, water supply looks excellent for the upcoming year.

Strong Winds Tonight and Tomorrow

 I have gotten a half-dozen emails asking about wind overnight.

Not the end of the world, but a strong front will be moving through. The Washington Coast and NW Washington will again get quite breezy, with some gusts reaching 50-60 mph.    I expect far less damage this time, since the trees have already been heavily "tested" by previous events.

Over the interior of western Washington, the  predicted maximum overnight winds are shown below, reaching 55 knots over the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca.   Those living on northern Whidbey Island should recharge their devices NOW.

Winds will be gusty near the water of central and southern Sound, but I don't expect many outages.

Looking at the maximum predicted gusts over the whole state through Wednesday evening (below), strong winds on the coast are evident.   

But there is something else.   As the front moves through, there will be VERY strong winds, with localized gusts reaching 70 knots. on the eastern slopes and foothills of the Cascades.

The last front that moved through resulted in a huge increase in the output of the wind turbines east of the Cascades (see below).  

Thus, there will be LOTS of wind energy being produced tomorrow....so this is the time to charge your EV cars!

Time is Running Out. Will the Northwest Make Up its Precipitation Deficit?

 Most of the Northwest has experienced below-normal precipitation this year, but half a month is left.

Can we catch up?   As the insightful Yogi Berra said famously:  "The game ain't over till it's over"

Consider the accumulated rainfall (green) over Seattle compared to normal (brown) for 2024, shown below.

Seattle is down about 8 inches (normal is about 37 inches).

In eastern Washington, Pasco is below normal, but by far less (just under an inch behind).

Looking at the whole region, the difference from normal for precipitation from January 1 to December 5 is quite varied.   Northern California and southwest Oregon have been considerably wetter than normal.   Oregon as a whole is a wash.  But Washington has been drier than normal, particularly the western side of the Cascades.

So the question you are all wondering:  will we catch up?   Or was Yogi Berra right?

The answer: we may make up a significant portion of this deficit during the next two weeks.   

Why?  Because the large-scale atmosphere will be locked into a favorable upper-level pattern, with a deep upper-level low over the Aleutians, resulting in a moist southwesterly flow over the Northwest (see upper-level, 500hPa heights (solid lines), with the difference from normal shown by shading).

Consider the predicted precipitation accumulation through the end of the month by two major global prediction systems.

The European Center model predicts very wet conditions, and particularly moist over the western portion of our region.  Purples are around 18 inches!

The American model, the GFS,  is similarly wet.   We might not catch up to normal, but we would get within striking distance. 

Seattle's reservoir levels are near normal right now, even before the deluge:

Want more good news?   No major cyclones are predicted to reach our region during the next week.  

NOAA's Future and Project 2025

Several media stories have suggested that Project 2025 will be the blueprint for the Trump administration's termination or break up of NOAA and the National Weather Service.  

I have received at least a half-dozen calls or messages asking about it.  Let's soberly consider the Project 2025 recommendations without a political lens.

As many of you know, Project 2025 is a project of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank.  It is their recommendation to the new administration.   According to President Trump, he has nothing to do with Project 2025 and does not feel bound to follow its recommendations:

Let's consider Project 2025's recommendations for NOAA.

It starts with a pretty strong statement:

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.  

But when you read the specifics, the tough talk is replaced by less threatening suggestions.

This is what Project 2025 says about the National Weather Service.

Focus the NWS on Commercial Operations. 

Each day, Americans rely on weather forecasts and warnings provided by local radio stations and colleges that are produced not by the NWS, but by private companies such as AccuWeather. Studies have found that the forecasts and warnings provided by private companies are more reliable than those provided by the NWS.2 The NWS provides data the private companies use and should focus on its data-gathering services. Because private companies rely on these data, the NWS should fully commercialize its forecasting operations. NOAA does not currently utilize commercial partnerships as some other agencies do. Commercialization of weather technologies should be prioritized to ensure that taxpayer dollars are invested in the most cost-efficient technologies for high-quality research and weather data. Investing in different sizes of commercial partners will increase competition while ensuring that the government solutions provided by each contract is personalized to the needs of NOAA’s weather programs

 The Project 2025 folks may have a point here. Commerical forecasts (e.g., from the WeatherChannel or Accuweather or Apple weather forecasts) are generally more skillful than NWS projections.  Don't believe me?   Look at specific comparisons, such as those found at ForecastAdvisor.com 

The NWS is in 7th place.   At least it is ahead of Pirate Weather (pirates are obviously mediocre in weather forecasting).   Similar statistics are found at other locations around the U.S.   As a specialist in the field, I have a very good idea of why the NWS lags, including the inferior statistical combination of weather forecasts.  NOAA models (except for HRRR) are generally inferior.  

NOAA could greatly improve forecast skill by contracting with commercial firms for their forecasts, releasing local NOAA meteorologists to interact with local users, and ensuring local observations are well maintained.   The savings in reduced local staff could be used to improve national weather prediction models (such as HRRR) and enhance observations.  

A win-win situation for everyone, and it is reasonable and defendable.

Next, Project 2025 takes on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the NOAA Environmental Satellite Service:

Review the Work of the National Hurricane Center and the National Environmental Satellite Service. The National Hurricane Center and National Environmental Satellite Service data centers provide important public safety and business functions as well as academic functions, and are used by forecasting agencies and scientists internationally. Data continuity is an important issue in climate science. Data collected by the department should be presented neutrally, without adjustments intended to support any one side in the climate debate.

Project 2025 is not calling for the termination of these important NOAA efforts but to present the implications of climate change/global warming more "neutrally".

As someone who follows this issue quite closely, I really don't think that the NHC is guilty of consistently hyping the impacts of climate change or making "adjustments" intended to support one side or the other. 

 But let's have some perspective here:  Project 2025 is NOT recommending the end of the NHC as being claimed by some hyperventilating folks, such as the Huffington Post:

Finally, the report calls for a reduction in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and to reduce the "preponderance of its climate change research".

Downsize the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). OAR provides theoretical science, as opposed to the applied science of the National Hurricane Center. OAR is, however, the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism. The preponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded. OAR is a large network of research laboratories, an undersea research center, and several joint research institutes with universities. These operations should be reviewed withe an aim of consolidation and reduction of bloat.

I will have to give Project 2025 mixed grades on this.  NOAA AOR does BOTH theoretical AND applied science, which Project 2025 folks did not appreciate.  AOR does some very good applied and theoretical science.  I have worked with them on many projects, so I know.  Furthermore, I don't think it is true that there is a "preponderance" of climate-change research that should be disbanded.  Yes, a few scientists in NOAA may have gone a bit "over the top" but most are not and doing good work regarding climate change.  

However, there is bloat, duplication, and ineffective spending in NOAA AOR.

Trust me, I know the locations of a lot of the skeletons in the NOAA closet.  

In summary, the Project 2025 "analysis" of NOAA has to be given mixed grades (and I did not mention the sloppy writing, with numerous grammatical errors.    But if you bother to read it, you will see that it is not calling for the death knell of NOAA as claimed by some media and climate activists.

NOAA Does Need Reform

Although Project 2025 has hits and misses regarding NOAA,  NOAA acutely needs reform.  

Major reform.   Reform that will enable it to serve its mission better.   Reform that will make it more effective and reduce bureaucratic bloat.  Reform that may well save money.

I say this as someone who has worked with NOAA for decades.  I have written several papers on NOAA's organizational problems, served on national advisory committees, and testified in Congress on these issues.

NOAA has fallen behind in weather prediction.  It has failed to use commercial services when they offer better forecasts, are less expensive, or more efficient.  There is a huge duplication of effort within NOAA.  Large amounts of funding are wasted.  There is a lack of partnerships with the University community and particularly the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

In a future blog, I will lay out the details of how NOAA could be reformed and become MUCH more effective.   With insightful reorganization and better management, NOAA could provide profoundly better forecasts and environmental information to the American people.

Update on the Windstorm and Power Outages

10 AM Update:  About 85,000 power customers have lost power in western WA.

The most recent model forecasts are shifting the low center towards us, illustrated by the animation below.  

This means more pressure difference (gradient) over Puget Sound and NW Washington, which means more wind, particularly over and near Puget Sound.

Before I show you the latest wind forecast, below are the maximum winds so far today (through 7 PM). 

 40-50 mph northeast of the Olympics and along the Washington Coast.    35-40 mph along the western foothills of the Cascades.   Only a few scattered outages so far....but the big action is in the future.

With the subtle shift of the low, the winds are going to be stronger over populated areas.

Below is the forecast of max winds for 10 AM Saturday from the model run made yesterday evening.  Blue and orange are the highest winds. NW Washington is heavily impacted but most of Puget Sound country is spared.

And here are the winds from the latest forecast.  Much stronger over central Puget Sound, which means a much more serious threat of outages, particularly near the water.  Bellingham and the San Juans are going to get it.  Much weaker winds over the South Sound.

I expect some outages over NW Seattle through Shoreline through Whidbey Is, increasing in severity to the north. There may also be some outages from the NW Olympic Peninsula through the San Juans to Bellingham.

The power utilities should prepare overnight, get rested, and be ready to roll by 7-8 AM, with the strongest winds around 10 AM.

Tomorrow morning, I will discuss the situation in my Patreon session and then try my new (low-cost, black Friday) generator, which hopefully won't be needed. I am tired of throwing food away.

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I will hold a special online zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  I will discuss the storm and answer your questions....assuming my power does not go out!

Power Outage Prediction Maps for the Friday/Saturday Storm

6 PM.  Storm becoming more threatening to Seattle northward.  Update at 8:15 PM

As a new service of this blog, I will indicate the areas where powerlines might be damaged by the approaching storm.  You can't say you don't get cutting-edge products on this site. 😊 

Perhaps the forecasts might help local utilities pre-position necessary assets.

The latest European Center sea-level pressure forecast is for a very respectable 977 hPa low with a ring of strong winds wrapping around it (shown at 4 AM Saturday, winds in knots). 

 No, this is not some doomsday machine and, no,  it is not a BOMB CYCLONE.  I will not hype this storm like some amateur sites and certain local media.

Now the serious part....where will the power outages be, if any? 

 My general experience is that power outages during December and January generally get started when gusts surge above 40 mph (35 knots).   Definitely, some losses when gusts exceed 50 mph (43 knots), and expect lots of blackouts when winds surge above 60 mph (52 knots).

Of course, there are subtleties. Outages early in the fall require less wind to damage trees and, thus, the powerlines. Unusual directions (like the easterlies of Nov. 19) do more damage.

But with all that said, let's examine the prediction winds of the best local model around (the UW super-high resolution WRF model).   I will show you some new graphics that we have developed, showing the strongest wind prediction over a period.

For the period through 4 AM Saturday, there is potential trouble on the Washington coast and northwest Washington (see below).   I particularly worry about Sequim to Port Townsend to central Whidbey Island).  The San Juans and Bellingham could see some flickering lights.  Some modest potential for the western foothills of the Cascades but NOTHING LIKE Nov. 9.

Extending the period through early Sunday morning, we see an enhanced risk over NW Washington and along the coast.  Potentially strong downslope winds on the NE slopes of the Olympics....but few people live there.

Here in Seattle, it will get blustery, but I don't expect a lot of wind damage.   

A good source to check is the City of Seattle WindWatch website (a project of my group), which shows the strongest winds over the city from a variety of forecast sources (below).    A max gust in the low 30s mph looks like a good bet.   Those of you in Seattle who bought generators during black Friday/Monday will probably not get a chance to use them.

The strongest winds over the northwest interior of western Washington will probably be on Saturday morning around 10 AM.  Below are the forecast gusts at that time.

If you are in purple or blue, charge your batteries.  Red....you might have some issues.

Enjoy.

Announcement

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I will hold a special online zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters.  I will discuss the storm and answer your questions....assuming my power does not go out!

A Major Cyclone Will Approach Our Coast But Not a Repeat of November 19

A very strong, rapidly developing, midlatitude cyclone will approach the Northwest coast on Friday and move through on Saturday.

Fortunately, the wind situation will be far less threatening in the interior compared to the November 9 event.  This blog will explain why.  But big waves may cause problems on the northwest coast.

Let's start with the predicted sea level pressure and surface wind gust map at 10 AM Friday morning.  

Pretty scary looking, with a 979 hPa low-pressure center.  Strong winds (up to 60 knots) will occur in a ring around the low center.  An associated occluded front will be hitting the Oregon coast with even stronger winds at this time.

By 7 PM on Friday the low will move northwestward and strengthen slightly to 977 hPa. 

Overnight the system will weaken and move across northern Vancouver Island.

Importantly, this will change the orientation of the isobars, producing a large north-south pressure difference and strong winds over NW Washington,

Over western Washington, the winds will evolve in three acts.

In the first, shown at 1 PM on Friday, strong winds (blue colors) will occur along the coast and over the waters of NW Washington.  Strong downslope winds will occur on the lee (NE) side of the Olympics. Moderate (20-35 kt) easterly winds will descend the western slopes of the Cascades, but their strength will be NOTHING like November 19th.

In stage two,  shown at 1 AM Saturday, the coastal winds will weaken, although still strong on the northern WA coast.  The downslope easterly winds will have ended and winds will pick up over Puget Sound.

In stage three, northern Puget Sound winds (from roughly Seattle to Bellingham) will strengthen with gusts reaching 30-40 knots from the Sound.   A few branches may fall and I expect a few minor power outages.  Nothing significant.  Winds will fade later in the day

This event will represent a typical mid-winter blow.

The most serious impacts may be the waves and high water levels on the Washington Coast.

The strong winds acting on the Pacific should produce substantial wave action on our coast and Vancouver Island.  The latest NOAA WaveWatch3 prediction is for significant wave heights of 20-30 ft.

That will be on top of some higher-than-normal astronomical tides (see below for La Push/Quilayute):

Clearly, some potential for coastal flooding on the northern Washington coast late Friday and Saturday.

Poor Vegetation Management and Windstorm Power Outages: A Frustrated Meteorologist Complains

 One of the great frustrations of being a meteorologist is to see a major event nearly perfectly forecast, yet with massive impacts on society.

It is frustrating to be concerned about global warming and seeing our region unable to keep the lights on for over a million people, some for 2-5 days. Without reliability, a transition away from fossil fuels cannot be made.

I have blogged several times about the major easterly wind event on November 19, which resulted in over a half-million homes losing power.    This event was nearly perfectly forecast several days ahead.....so there is not much more my discipline can do.

Brave, resilient individuals who restored power, some working for 12-36 h without rest, are the heroes of this story.

The villains?   Perhaps utility companies that were complacent about clearing trees and branches from the powerlines.  Utilities that did not invest in underground wiring when needed.

Let me show you some examples...and you be the judge.

Large areas in Seattle were out of power for 3-5 days, resulting in spoiled food, folks forced out of their homes by cold, and closed businesses.

For example, major Seattle City Light powerlines in northwest Seattle along Sand Point Way NE  (between NE 70th and NE 95th) frequently fail because of the lack of trimming of branches that extend above the powerlines.   Multiple branch failures on these lines blacked out northern Magnuson Park, Inverness, Inverness Park, Sand Point Country Club, and Mathews Beach on November 19, affecting thousands of Seattle residents.

Even today, there are large sections of Sand Point Way NE where branches extend over the powerlines (see below)....the next power outage is ready to go!

Vegetation management outside of Seattle, mainly in areas for which Puget Sound Energy is responsible, is even worse.   A few of thousands of examples are shown below

South of Issaquah

Mercer Island....find the powerline!

If this region is really serious about moving to a dependency on electricity, the power grid needs to be much more reliable.   Either bury power cables or initiate a massive program of tree trimming and removal.  Meteorologists are doing our part... utilities must do theirs.